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Economy
See other Economy Articles

Title: Krugman's Rightful Victory Lap - Mone Too...
Source: The NY Times
URL Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/03/opinion/03krugman.html?_r=1
Published: Jun 3, 2011
Author: Paul Krugman
Post Date: 2011-06-03 12:10:35 by war
Keywords: None
Views: 140833
Comments: 159

Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York published a blog post about the “mistake of 1937,” the premature fiscal and monetary pullback that aborted an ongoing economic recovery and prolonged the Great Depression. As Gauti Eggertsson, the post’s author (with whom I have done research) points out, economic conditions today — with output growing, some prices rising, but unemployment still very high — bear a strong resemblance to those in 1936-37. So are modern policy makers going to make the same mistake?

Mr. Eggertsson says no, that economists now know better. But I disagree. In fact, in important ways we have already repeated the mistake of 1937. Call it the mistake of 2010: a “pivot” away from jobs to other concerns, whose wrongheadedness has been highlighted by recent economic data.

To be sure, things could be worse — and there’s a strong chance that they will, indeed, get worse.

Back when the original 2009 Obama stimulus was enacted, some of us warned that it was both too small and too short-lived. In particular, the effects of the stimulus would start fading out in 2010 — and given the fact that financial crises are usually followed by prolonged slumps, it was unlikely that the economy would have a vigorous self-sustaining recovery under way by then.

By the beginning of 2010, it was already obvious that these concerns had been justified. Yet somehow an overwhelming consensus emerged among policy makers and pundits that nothing more should be done to create jobs, that, on the contrary, there should be a turn toward fiscal austerity.

This consensus was fed by scare stories about an imminent loss of market confidence in U.S. debt. Every uptick in interest rates was interpreted as a sign that the “bond vigilantes” were on the attack, and this interpretation was often reported as a fact, not as a dubious hypothesis.

For example, in March 2010, The Wall Street Journal published an article titled “Debt Fears Send Rates Up,” reporting that long-term U.S. interest rates had risen and asserting — without offering any evidence — that this rise, to about 3.9 percent, reflected concerns about the budget deficit. In reality, it probably reflected several months of decent jobs numbers, which temporarily raised optimism about recovery.

But never mind. Somehow it became conventional wisdom that the deficit, not unemployment, was Public Enemy No. 1 — a conventional wisdom both reflected in and reinforced by a dramatic shift in news coverage away from unemployment and toward deficit concerns. Job creation effectively dropped off the agenda.

So, here we are, in the middle of 2011. How are things going?

Well, the bond vigilantes continue to exist only in the deficit hawks’ imagination. Long-term interest rates have fluctuated with optimism or pessimism about the economy; a recent spate of bad news has sent them down to about 3 percent, not far from historic lows.

And the news has, indeed, been bad. As the stimulus has faded out, so have hopes of strong economic recovery. Yes, there has been some job creation — but at a pace barely keeping up with population growth. The percentage of American adults with jobs, which plunged between 2007 and 2009, has barely budged since then. And the latest numbers suggest that even this modest, inadequate job growth is sputtering out.

So, as I said, we have already repeated a version of the mistake of 1937, withdrawing fiscal support much too early and perpetuating high unemployment.

Yet worse things may soon happen.

On the fiscal side, Republicans are demanding immediate spending cuts as the price of raising the debt limit and avoiding a U.S. default. If this blackmail succeeds, it will put a further drag on an already weak economy.

Meanwhile, a loud chorus is demanding that the Fed and its counterparts abroad raise interest rates to head off an alleged inflationary threat. As the New York Fed article points out, the rise in consumer price inflation over the past few months — which is already showing signs of tailing off — reflected temporary factors, and underlying inflation remains low. And smart economists like Mr. Eggerstsson understand this. But the European Central Bank is already raising rates, and the Fed is under pressure to do the same. Further attempts to help the economy expand seem out of the question.

So the mistake of 2010 may yet be followed by an even bigger mistake. Even if that doesn’t happen, however, the fact is that the policy response to the crisis was and remains vastly inadequate.

Those who refuse to learn from history are condemned to repeat it; we did, and we are. What we’re experiencing may not be a full replay of the Great Depression, but that’s little consolation for the millions of American families suffering from a slump that just goes on and on.

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#1. To: All (#0)

Should be "Mine Too"...damn "O" and "I" keep switching places on my keyboard...

Se...that should have been "I" and "O"...

Anyway, I warned on LP back in 2009 that Obama was allowing the stim to be watered down because the GOP had their eyes on the 2010 midterms.

I was correct, of course...

America...My Kind Of Place...

"I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..."
--GW Bush

war  posted on  2011-06-03   12:12:45 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: war (#1)

Now they're looking at 2012 with not much to lose and everything to gain.

It is our responsibility to protect that child once that child’s born too. When we start debating a budget, let’s make sure we don’t cut 100,000 vaccines. Let’s make sure we’ve got health insurance. We seem to worship what we cannot see, but as soon as that baby’s born, oh no, we don’t want to be intrusive. Texas is going to shrink government until it fits inside a women’s uterus. Senator Leticia Van de Putte

lucysmom  posted on  2011-06-03   12:21:22 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: lucysmom (#2)

So far the GOP plan for 2013 is to take away health care, unemployment benefits, medicare, more tax cuts for the wealthy and a default on debt.

Sounds like a winning platform to me.

America...My Kind Of Place...

"I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..."
--GW Bush

war  posted on  2011-06-03   12:41:58 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: war (#1)

Mone Too. [snicker]

war has to do something for entertainment. The voices in his head aren't speaking to him and his imaginary friends have found reasons not to come over anymore.

Rudgear  posted on  2011-06-03   13:14:06 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: war (#3)

So far the GOP plan for 2013 is to take away health care, unemployment benefits, medicare, more tax cuts for the wealthy and a default on debt.

It is the class warfare they accuse the left of.

It is our responsibility to protect that child once that child’s born too. When we start debating a budget, let’s make sure we don’t cut 100,000 vaccines. Let’s make sure we’ve got health insurance. We seem to worship what we cannot see, but as soon as that baby’s born, oh no, we don’t want to be intrusive. Texas is going to shrink government until it fits inside a women’s uterus. Senator Leticia Van de Putte

lucysmom  posted on  2011-06-03   16:49:35 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: Rudgear (#4)

mon Dieu!

It is our responsibility to protect that child once that child’s born too. When we start debating a budget, let’s make sure we don’t cut 100,000 vaccines. Let’s make sure we’ve got health insurance. We seem to worship what we cannot see, but as soon as that baby’s born, oh no, we don’t want to be intrusive. Texas is going to shrink government until it fits inside a women’s uterus. Senator Leticia Van de Putte

lucysmom  posted on  2011-06-03   16:51:23 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: war, a k a stone, cz82, jwpegler, hondo68, Get Outta Dodge!, Coral Snake, socalv8, Wood_Chopper (#0)

Krugman's Rightful Victory Lap - Mine Too...

Ok, here we go... You want to stand with the Keynesian idiot Krugman, then you'll fall with him... So I'll go over this bullshit article point by point, and when I am proven right, while you and your fellow dumbass Krugman are demonstrated to be the useless shills you truly are, I'll enjoy watching you eat crow... (or squirm and pretend you never supported the idiotic Keynesian policies and their inevitable results.)

So are modern policy makers going to make the same mistake? Mr. Eggertsson says no, that economists now know better. But I disagree. In fact, in important ways we have already repeated the mistake of 1937.

Back when the original 2009 Obama stimulus was enacted, some of us warned that it was both too small and too short-lived.... By the beginning of 2010, it was already obvious that these concerns had been justified.

Krugman- like you- uses the 25 Rules of Disinformation to great effect. They're lies of course, but he lies very convincingly.

For the above quote, he uses:

Rule of Disinformation #13. Alice in Wonderland Logic. Avoid discussion of the issues by reasoning backwards with an apparent deductive logic in a way that forbears any actual material fact.
AND
Rule of Disinformation #15. Fit the facts to alternate conclusions. This requires creative thinking unless the crime was planned with contingency conclusions in place.

His agenda is to start selling QE-3, 4, 5....N, i.e., money-printing, to further rob the middle-class, and line the pockets of his bankster backers.

...somehow an overwhelming consensus emerged among policy makers and pundits that nothing more should be done to create jobs, that, on the contrary, there should be a turn toward fiscal austerity. This consensus was fed by scare stories about an imminent loss of market confidence in U.S. debt.

This is a very subtle delivery of

Rule of Disinformation #5. Sidetrack opponents with name calling and ridicule. This is also known as the primary attack the messenger ploy, though other methods qualify as variants of that approach. Associate opponents with unpopular titles such as “kooks”, “right-wing”, “liberal”, “left-wing”, “terrorists”, “conspiracy buffs”, “radicals”, “militia”, “racists”, “religious fanatics”, “sexual deviates”, and so forth. This makes others shrink from support out of fear of gaining the same label, and you avoid dealing with issues.

In this case, he refers to those who warn us that having too much debt has severely negative consequences, as "debt hawks." Of course, he also inserts the word "austerity" to a public who now understands the negative connotations of that word- to paint anyone who is against printing our money into oblivion as pushing for such austerity measures.

Very effective... and very disengenuous.

On the fiscal side, Republicans are demanding immediate spending cuts as the price of raising the debt limit and avoiding a U.S. default. If this blackmail succeeds, it will put a further drag on an already weak economy.

Another disengenuous statement... If I max out my credit cards, and I can't even make the minimum monthly payments, why would I be so stupid as to ask the bank for an increase of my limits...? Why would THEY do it? In this case, the bank (Congress) is refusing to raise the limits- as well they should.

Saying "oh, the banks won't raise the limits on my maxed-out cards will force me to cut back on the money I'm spending for my lavish life-style... "It will "be a drag" on my party, dude..."

Of COURSE it will, you dipshit moron... But the people who are behind the bank.... the depositers.... WE the PEOPLE... can't pay any more...! So live within your means, go bankrupt or just STFU, because the money's gone.

GONE.

Meanwhile, a loud chorus is demanding that the Fed and its counterparts abroad raise interest rates to head off an alleged inflationary threat.

This is COMPLETE LIE. By raising the debt ceiling, you GUARANTEE inflation, and later hyperinflationary events. By preventing the FED from printing more money then we're prepared to take, we SLOW inflation, and perhaps we can stop it for a while. There's even the small chance that we'll survive this financial catastrophe, without devolving into CWII.

But they raise the debt ceiling, and the Fed will just PRINT BABY, PRINT!!!! It'll be Zimbabwe, Hungary and Weimar, all over again... But far worse then ANY of them experienced, due to their never having relied on their currency as the "world reserve" and having that snatched away by a disgusted market.

the New York Fed article points out, the rise in consumer price inflation over the past few months — which is already showing signs of tailing off — reflected temporary factors, and underlying inflation remains low.

Uh-HUH. Of course, only an idiot believes anything the Fed says... Bernanke has been 100% WRONG on his predictions, to date. In other words, what the official Fed line is, you can bet it's going the other way. But to sell this pile of shit (inflation is temporary and low), in spite of what we see whenver we go shopping, Krugman relies on

Rule of Disinformation #22. Manufacture a new truth. Create your own expert(s), group(s), author(s), leader(s) or influence existing ones willing to forge new ground via scientific, investigative, or social research or testimony which concludes favorably. In this way, if you must actually address issues, you can do so authoritatively.

Rule of Disinformation #19. Ignore proof presented, demand impossible proofs. This is perhaps a variant of the “play dumb” rule. Regardless of what material may be presented by an opponent in public forums, claim the material irrelevant and demand proof that is impossible for the opponent to come by (it may exist, but not be at his disposal, or it may be something which is known to be safely destroyed or withheld, such as a murder weapon). In order to completely avoid discussing issues may require you to categorically deny and be critical of media or books as valid sources, deny that witnesses are acceptable, or even deny that statements made by government or other authorities have any meaning or relevance.

Rule of Disinformation #20. False evidence. Whenever possible, introduce new facts or clues designed and manufactured to conflict with opponent presentations as useful tools to neutralize sensitive issues or impede resolution. This works best when the crime was designed with contingencies for the purpose, and the facts cannot be easily separated from the fabrications.

Those who refuse to learn from history are condemned to repeat it; we did, and we are.

Indeed. Throughout history, NO country or empire has ever raised itself to full and lasting prosperity, by debasing its own currency (which is what Krugman wants).

He has learned NOTHING about history... and neither have you, DwarF.

List of those unable to think:
mcgowanjm, ferret mike, skippy, fartboy/yukko, white sands, bucky, lucys idiot mom, e_type_jackoff, go56, badlie, wreck, calCON, mininggold, war, Banjo Boris, Biff, Godwinson and meguro. If you're on the above list, you're too fucking stupid to hold a real conversation.

Bumper sticker on DwarF's car:

Capitalist Eric  posted on  2011-06-03   17:56:09 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#8. To: war (#0)

More ca ca from the NY Times...... aint that a surprise.....

"I love the 45 caliber M1911, I respect the 9MM M9 Beretta but I only carry a CZ for my own personal protection". Quote courtesy of Lt Col John Dean Cooper, recognized as the Father of Modern Handgunning

CZ82  posted on  2011-06-03   18:00:59 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#9. To: Capitalist Eric (#7) (Edited)

His agenda is to start selling QE-3, 4, 5....N, i.e., money-printing, to further rob the middle-class, and line the pockets of his bankster backers.

Knock off the BS noise and stick to the article, Erica. I don't need your asshole comments about banksters and other crap. Why do you believe that Krugman was incorrect when he said that the stim was not big enough? The crap above is crap I can read in any of your posts. Stick to the issue.

When you feel like offering up an actual argument rather than the same frothy mouth end of the world BS that you've been spurting on the internet for 15 years, PING me. Until then, don't bother.

America...My Kind Of Place...

"I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..."
--GW Bush

war  posted on  2011-06-03   18:40:26 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#10. To: CZ82 (#8)

Krugman is an editorial page contributor to the Times. He's syndicated and published elsewhere.

In other words, take your Sean Hannity talking point and stick it.

America...My Kind Of Place...

"I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..."
--GW Bush

war  posted on  2011-06-03   18:42:00 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#11. To: war (#10)

Krugman is an editorial page contributor to the Times. He's syndicated and published elsewhere

And is that supposed to impress me into believing what he says..... not....

"I love the 45 caliber M1911, I respect the 9MM M9 Beretta but I only carry a CZ for my own personal protection". Quote courtesy of Lt Col John Dean Cooper, recognized as the Father of Modern Handgunning

CZ82  posted on  2011-06-03   18:51:44 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#12. To: war (#0)

America was a closed economy in the 1930s and the government didn't owe trillions of dollars in debt to foreign countries.

The Keynesian idiots whose heads are stuck in the 1930s just don't understand that the world has changed.


"Everything that can be invented has been invented."-- Charles Duell, Commissioner of US Patent Office, 1899

jwpegler  posted on  2011-06-03   19:09:25 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#13. To: CZ82 (#11)

Of course, you can't cite a cogent reason WHY you don't believe him - even though what he predicted 2 years ago has come true.

America...My Kind Of Place...

"I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..."
--GW Bush

war  posted on  2011-06-03   19:10:39 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#14. To: jwpegler (#12) (Edited)

The Keynesian idiots whose heads are stuck in the 1930s just don't understand that the world has changed.

Do you believe that monetary flows are more efficient or less efficient now?

If you say "less" you're more stupid than I have previously pointed out.

Do you believe that it MATTERS who holds the debt?

America...My Kind Of Place...

"I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..."
--GW Bush

war  posted on  2011-06-03   19:11:53 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#15. To: jwpegler (#12)

America was a closed economy in the 1930s

Actually, America has been the world's largest trading partner going back to the late 19th century.

They tried to close it and semi-did but it was for a very brief period.

America...My Kind Of Place...

"I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..."
--GW Bush

war  posted on  2011-06-03   19:13:30 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#16. To: war (#15) (Edited)

America has been the world's largest trading partner going back to the late 19th century.

International trade was tiny in the 19th century compared to today. Smoot Hawley shut most trade down in the early 1930s.


"Everything that can be invented has been invented."-- Charles Duell, Commissioner of US Patent Office, 1899

jwpegler  posted on  2011-06-03   19:16:32 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#17. To: war (#14)

Do you believe that monetary flows are more efficient or less efficient now?

Yep, money can very easily flee a country today when a government acts irresponsibly. That's part of my point bozo.


"Everything that can be invented has been invented."-- Charles Duell, Commissioner of US Patent Office, 1899

jwpegler  posted on  2011-06-03   19:18:22 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#18. To: war (#13) (Edited)

Of course, you can't cite a cogent reason WHY you don't believe him

Keynesian economics 101:

Wages are "sticky" downwards. In a recession, people won't voluntarily take wage cuts to clear the market price for labor so that businesses will start hiring again. So, people have to be fooled into taking a pay cut through inflation. Prices go up, wages stay the same -- a pay cut has occurred. The market price clears and businesses start hiring again.

That's Keynesian economics in a nutshell.

Two problems:

1.) This model stopped working in the 1970s because people started expecting inflation and demanded automatic cost of living increases in their union contracts, etc.

2.) The government owes a tremendous debt to foreign countries. Creating inflation to lower real wages in the U.S. also lowers the value of the debt held by foreigners, which makes it harder for the government to borrow more money.

There are many more problems with Keynesian economics today than these, but this basically why it doesn't work anymore.

There's an old adage that is very instructive here: You can fool some of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time. The people stopped being fooled by the Keynesian inflation scam in the 1970s.


"Everything that can be invented has been invented."-- Charles Duell, Commissioner of US Patent Office, 1899

jwpegler  posted on  2011-06-03   19:29:58 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#19. To: Capitalist Eric (#7)

Obama stimulus was enacted, some of us warned that it was both too small and too short-lived

More Communism! was the battle cry of the USSR right up to the end. If they'd only had enough, everything would've been peachy. /s


"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul

Obama's watch stopped on 24 May 2008, but he's been too busy smoking crack to notice.

Hondo68  posted on  2011-06-03   19:37:43 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#20. To: war (#15)

Actually, America has been the world's largest trading partner going back to the late 19th century.

The US was to Europe in the late 1800s what China is to us today.

It is our responsibility to protect that child once that child’s born too. When we start debating a budget, let’s make sure we don’t cut 100,000 vaccines. Let’s make sure we’ve got health insurance. We seem to worship what we cannot see, but as soon as that baby’s born, oh no, we don’t want to be intrusive. Texas is going to shrink government until it fits inside a women’s uterus. Senator Leticia Van de Putte

lucysmom  posted on  2011-06-03   22:27:25 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#21. To: war (#0)

Mr. Eggertsson says no, that economists now know better

Economists know better, but the GOP is listening to the teahadist minority. Just today Boehner said that the jobs report was evidence that further spending cuts are needed, ignoring the fact that he claimed to have passed "historic" spending cuts not long ago - and the result is falling job growth. And then of course we had the extension of the Bush tax cuts plus additional tax cuts in December.

Never let facts get in the way of ideology though.

"Thats because your basically and idiot."
Badeye posted on 2011-04-29 10:30:22 ET

go65  posted on  2011-06-03   22:42:41 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#22. To: war (#3)

So far the GOP plan for 2013 is to take away health care, unemployment benefits, medicare, more tax cuts for the wealthy and a default on debt.

Romney says he will balance the budget in his first term, I can't to hear how. Even Ryan wouldn't balance it until 2019.

"Thats because your basically and idiot."
Badeye posted on 2011-04-29 10:30:22 ET

go65  posted on  2011-06-03   22:43:26 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#23. To: jwpegler (#18)

There are many more problems with Keynesian economics today than these, but this basically why it doesn't work anymore.

Almost everyone I know took a pay cut in 2008.

Keynesian approaches have never really been applied to this recession. The stimulus only spent about $300 billion on infrastructure, the rest went to tax cuts and aid to states. Now that state aid is done we're seeing big cuts in state spending and big cuts in state employment (the latest report showed another decline of 30,000 government workers.

So what we've got now is that we just had "historic" federal spending cuts, earlier this year we passed another round of tax cuts. Governments across the U.S. are shrinking.

And guess what, job growth is anemic.

So the GOP answer is "more" spending cuts and tax cuts, right?

"Thats because your basically and idiot."
Badeye posted on 2011-04-29 10:30:22 ET

go65  posted on  2011-06-03   22:46:24 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#24. To: go65 (#21)

Just today Boehner said that the jobs report was evidence that further spending cuts are needed, ignoring the fact that he claimed to have passed "historic" spending cuts not long ago - and the result is falling job growth.

You're blaming falling job growth on spending cuts?

Tag lines are gay.

We The People  posted on  2011-06-03   22:54:12 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#25. To: go65 (#22)

Romney says he will balance the budget in his first term, I can't to hear how.

Obama said he'd cut the deficit in half in his first term.

That's not a defense of Romney, who is an idiot.

Tag lines are gay.

We The People  posted on  2011-06-03   22:56:06 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#26. To: We The People (#24)

You're blaming falling job growth on spending cuts?

Cutting spending will slow the economy. Economics 101 - See U.S. 1937, UK 2011

"Thats because your basically and idiot."
Badeye posted on 2011-04-29 10:30:22 ET

go65  posted on  2011-06-03   22:57:12 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#27. To: war (#14)

Do you believe that monetary flows are more efficient or less efficient now? If you say "less" you're more stupid than I have previously pointed out.

Take a look in the mirror, if you want to see what stupid REALLY looks like.

It has been empirically proven- MANY TIMES- that more government interference in the market-place results in greater inefficiencies. Just look at Soviet Union, for a real-world example of a fully government-managed economy, and its results.

Don't throw China into that mix, though- their economy is capitalistic, with a Communist government.

Intermediate macroeconomics would have explained this to you, but it is abundantly clear that you don't understand basic econ, much less the intermediate or advanced levels.

Oh, BTW, you never addressed my point- NO country or empire has ever propelled itself to lasting prosperity, by devaluing its own currency. (What we now call "quantitative easing.")

Check-mate. :)

List of those unable to think:
mcgowanjm, ferret mike, skippy, fartboy/yukko, white sands, bucky, lucys idiot mom, e_type_jackoff, go56, badlie, wreck, calCON, mininggold, war, Banjo Boris, Biff, Godwinson and meguro. If you're on the above list, you're too fucking stupid to hold a real conversation.

Bumper sticker on DwarF's car:

Capitalist Eric  posted on  2011-06-04   1:09:12 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#28. To: hondo68 (#19)

Lol. DwarF is quite the moron...

List of those unable to think:
mcgowanjm, ferret mike, skippy, fartboy/yukko, white sands, bucky, lucys idiot mom, e_type_jackoff, go56, badlie, wreck, calCON, mininggold, war, Banjo Boris, Biff, Godwinson and meguro. If you're on the above list, you're too fucking stupid to hold a real conversation.

Bumper sticker on DwarF's car:

Capitalist Eric  posted on  2011-06-04   1:10:24 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#29. To: lucysmom (#20)

The US was to Europe in the late 1800s what China is to us today.

You ignorant libTURD cow, there is no possible similarity between the two.

Except in the fetid and fevered bird like "brain" pan of the typical libTURD mouth breather.

Did you even finish third grade?

Spoiled, stupid and ignorant, brain dead phuckwads, libTURD fools, tools, and idiots, are the real sickness; the messiah "king" obammy and his regime are only the symptoms.

Mad Dog  posted on  2011-06-04   1:37:41 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#30. To: jwpegler (#16)

International trade was tiny in the 19th century compared to today.

Regardless...

Smoot Hawley shut most trade down in the early 1930s.

Both imports and exports were about 5% of GDP. Even after Smoot-Hawley, the US had the lowest or near lowest tariffs in the world. As a monetarist, per se, and knowing that recessions and depressions are monetary in nature, I discount Smoot Hawley as having any substantial impact.

America...My Kind Of Place...

"I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..."
--GW Bush

war  posted on  2011-06-04   6:54:28 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#31. To: hondo68 (#19) (Edited)

More Communism! was the battle cry of the USSR right up to the end.

Government spending and tax credits do not equate to communism. They don't equate to Socialism either.

PING me in a few years when you've had a HS level course in "isms".

America...My Kind Of Place...

"I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..."
--GW Bush

war  posted on  2011-06-04   6:56:54 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#32. To: jwpegler (#17) (Edited)

Yep, money can very easily flee a country today when a government acts irresponsibly.

Money is not fleeing the US. IN fact, the US bends over backwards via the tax code to accommodate these inflows.

So, if that was your point it was...pointless.

America...My Kind Of Place...

"I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..."
--GW Bush

war  posted on  2011-06-04   7:00:56 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#33. To: war (#13)

Of course, you can't cite a cogent reason WHY you don't believe him - even though what he predicted 2 years ago has come true.

That the stimulus would be a failure because of where it was targeted? (A way to keep his union pals working for awhile longer so he could reap the benefits of their campaign contributions for 2012)... So did he say that????

We didn't need the stimulus, plain, pure and simple.... It didn't accomplish anything other than to put us more in debt, and help bribe his "Gangsta" buddies for their support....

"I love the 45 caliber M1911, I respect the 9MM M9 Beretta but I only carry a CZ for my own personal protection". Quote courtesy of Lt Col John Dean Cooper, recognized as the Father of Modern Handgunning

CZ82  posted on  2011-06-04   7:09:21 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#34. To: jwpegler (#18)

Wages are "sticky" downwards. In a recession, people won't voluntarily take wage cuts to clear the market price for labor so that businesses will start hiring again. So, people have to be fooled into taking a pay cut through inflation. Prices go up, wages stay the same -- a pay cut has occurred. The market price clears and businesses start hiring again.

Inflation is not an indicator or a characteristic of a recession. Want to try again?

What does occur during a recession is that people LOSE their jobs.

Companies have a productivity baseline that, minimally, would have to be that the result of every dollar invested in production should equal a dollar of output. labor, being a cost of production, is the "easiest" to adjust.

What Keynes would tell you, and which he states in his general theory, is that WAGES and PRICES should be subject to legislative controls rather than controlled through monetary policy. Had you made that argument as being a flaw in his General Theory you'd have agreement with me. Keynes saw inflation as a temporary dislocation that could be easily manipulated.

He was wrong, of course. And while you do cite history correctly - Nixonomics - you take away the wrong lesson.

The reason why the Keynesian model does not work is because the fiscal policy of the US government has been anti-Keynesian for the last 30 years. IN 1985/86, Keynes would have been demanding of Reagan that he stop spending and pay down debt. He would have been doing the same in the middle part of the last decade. Keynes was not an advocate of spend, spend, spend.

America...My Kind Of Place...

"I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..."
--GW Bush

war  posted on  2011-06-04   7:17:37 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#35. To: CZ82 (#33)

That the stimulus would be a failure because of where it was targeted?

It targeted consumers and public works projects.

We didn't need the stimulus, plain, pure and simple....

We were in the depths of a recession that was on its way to being a Depression. It did a great job of stopping that almost in its tracks. The problem is that it did little else.

Tax cuts, btw, are both stimulative AND put us into debt.

I've never seen you argue against one.

America...My Kind Of Place...

"I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..."
--GW Bush

war  posted on  2011-06-04   7:20:14 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#36. To: Capitalist Eric (#27)

Oh, BTW, you never addressed my point- NO country or empire has ever propelled itself to lasting prosperity, by devaluing its own currency. (What we now call "quantitative easing.")

Putting aide the aphoristic qualities of that statement, the goal of quantitative easing is not to devalue the currency but to fund an available capital pool.

And if you want to see a currency devalue, watch what happens when the EU meltsdown.

America...My Kind Of Place...

"I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..."
--GW Bush

war  posted on  2011-06-04   7:27:50 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#37. To: war (#35)

That the stimulus would be a failure because of where it was targeted?

It targeted consumers and public works projects.

Yea I remember all of those stupid road signs that said "This Road will be repaired using Stimulus money"..... Well the signs are now gone and the road is still the way it was before, no repairs, no repaving, no nothing....

"EXCEPT" the signs are gone, guess that's what the money was for to put up and take down signs..... phucking brilliant!!!!

"I love the 45 caliber M1911, I respect the 9MM M9 Beretta but I only carry a CZ for my own personal protection". Quote courtesy of Lt Col John Dean Cooper, recognized as the Father of Modern Handgunning

CZ82  posted on  2011-06-04   7:51:45 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#38. To: war (#35)

We were in the depths of a recession that was on its way to being a Depression. It did a great job of stopping that almost in its tracks. The problem is that it did little else.

Ask the Japanese about stimulus plans, they did 8-10 of them and are still suffering to this day from that useless shit....

"I love the 45 caliber M1911, I respect the 9MM M9 Beretta but I only carry a CZ for my own personal protection". Quote courtesy of Lt Col John Dean Cooper, recognized as the Father of Modern Handgunning

CZ82  posted on  2011-06-04   7:54:35 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#39. To: war (#35)

Tax cuts, btw, are both stimulative AND put us into debt.

I've never seen you argue against one.

You won't because the debt is temporary..... if in conjuction with that you get rid of a lot of government rules and regulations that inhibit economic growth...

Which is pretty much all the bureacracy the Dumbassocrats have dreamt up over the years, because they think we are all just too stupid to run our own lives..... (And they can't even run their own....... LOL.....)

"I love the 45 caliber M1911, I respect the 9MM M9 Beretta but I only carry a CZ for my own personal protection". Quote courtesy of Lt Col John Dean Cooper, recognized as the Father of Modern Handgunning

CZ82  posted on  2011-06-04   7:59:25 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#40. To: CZ82 (#37)

Yea I remember all of those stupid road signs that said "This Road will be repaired using Stimulus money"..... Well the signs are now gone and the road is still the way it was before, no repairs, no repaving, no nothing....

"EXCEPT" the signs are gone, guess that's what the money was for to put up and take down signs..... phucking brilliant!!!!

Challenge.

America...My Kind Of Place...

"I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..."
--GW Bush

war  posted on  2011-06-04   8:52:38 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  



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