Let’s start by getting all of the caveats out of the way about misinterpreting the results of the special House election that Democrat Kathy Hochul just won in Western New York. There were local issues at work that mean nothing outside of the Buffalo area. There was a third candidate in the race -- a one-time Democrat who ran under the Tea Party banner -- whose presence probably hurt the Republican candidate, Jane Corwin, more than it hurt Hochul (although the disparity is probably not nearly as severe as Republicans will claim). And there was probably a basic difference in candidate quality: Hochul was easier to like and seemed to run a better campaign than Corwin.
All of these things are true, but none of them erase the single most significant message of Hochul’s victory: The backlash against Tea Party governance is real.
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But something important has changed in the last six months. When they retook the House in their midterm landslide, Republicans ceased to be the default protest vehicle for voters. This was the role they played for all of 2009 and 2010, and it was easy. With Democrats running the White House and Congress and with economic anxiety soaring, all Republicans had to do was shake their heads and ask voters, "Is this the kind of change you can believe in?" They didn’t need a platform, they didn’t need strong candidates, and they didn’t need much money. In the climate of 2010, any generic Republican could win just about any competitive race.
But as the majority party in the House, Republicans need to present a platform. And because their base is so inflamed with anti-Obama hysteria and so insistent on absolute ideological purity, the Republicans running the House are constricted in the agenda they can pursue. In several high-profile GOP primaries in 2010, insufficiently pure Republican candidates were rejected by the base. Keeping this base from revolting again in 2012, Speaker John Boehner and his fellow Republicans realized when they took over, would be one of their main challenges -- something they’d have to do even if it meant taking some positions that aren’t popular with non-GOP voters.
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