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Title: Democrat Surges in Poll Ahead of N.Y. Special Election
Source:
blogs.wsj.com/washwire
URL Source: http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2011/ ... ahead-of-n-y-special-election/
Published: May 22, 2011
Author: Siobhan Hughes
Post Date: 2011-05-22 23:01:25 by Ferret Mike
Keywords: None
Views: 5301
Comments: 31
AMHERST, N.Y. — A congressional race that may test voter support for a controversial Republican plan to overhaul Medicare remains tight before Tuesday’s special election, with a new poll suggesting that the Democrat now has a slight edge. Democrat Kathy Hochul has been campaigning in the western New York district against the House GOP plan to remake Medicare. She had support from 42% of likely voters in a survey released Saturday, compared to 38% for Republican Jane Corwin. Republicans have long represented the district, so gains by Democrats are being closely watched well beyond the region. The poll, conducted by the Siena Research Institute, surveyed more than 600 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. In a Siena poll three weeks ago, the Democrat had trailed the Republican candidate by five percentage points. Support for a third-party candidate appears to be fading. Businessman Jack Davis was picked by 12% in the most recent poll, about half the support from the prior survey. Off-cycle House elections typically draw few voters to the polls, making predictions about the outcome especially tricky. “Despite Hochul’s current lead, apparent momentum and strong favorability ratings, this race is not over yet,” said Don Levy, director of the Siena Research Institute. “Needless to say: turnout, turnout and turnout.” Mindful that voters stay away from the polls during off-year elections, Ms. Corwin is holding a get-out-the-vote rally on Saturday morning and later will knock on doors across vote-rich Erie County. Ms. Hochul is to appear Saturday morning with Bowzer of the band Sha Na Na, known for its 1950s rock music. She will later appear at a rally with Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D., N.Y.). New York’s 26th district stretches from the suburbs of Buffalo to the suburbs of Rochester. The House seat became vacant after former congressman Chris Lee, who is married, resigned following revelations that he had sent a shirtless picture of himself to a woman he was trying to meet online. The May 24 election is being watched for clues to voter reaction to Congress since Republicans gained new power in the 2010 mid-term elections. The Republican-controlled House, supported by the fiscally conservative tea party, has insisted on reducing federal spending. As part of that effort, House Republicans approved a plan to end Medicare’s traditional role as a fee-for-service program, turning it instead into a system of subsidized, private health insurance plans. The change would not affect people who are now age 55 or older. In the Siena survey, about equal numbers of voters said that Medicare, jobs and the federal budget deficit were the issues most important to them. Mr. Davis has been running television advertisements criticizing the outsourcing of jobs to China, a message that plays well in a region where manufacturing has been in decline. The businessman, who spent millions of dollars of his own money on earlier campaigns for Congress, was seen on video recently losing his temper when a Corwin aide taunted him for failing to participate in a debate.
The special election to fill a House seat in upstate New York was supposed to be an easy victory for Republican Jane Corwin, left. But support for Democrat Kathy Hochul, right, is growing.
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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 22.
#1. To: Ferret Mike (#0)
The Republicans can thank the Teabaggers for the loss - again.
I live in the district, and I call bullshit on that one, skippy. This impending loss will be squarely on the repub establishment.
This impending loss will be squarely on the repub establishment The Teabagger is polling 12%. That's 12% the Republican won't get. Once again, the Teabaggers will cause the Republicans to loose a race they should have won.
My vote for Davis will be strictly a protest vote. Not that it matters.
Nope. I read it here, today. "We the Tea Party Coalition of Western New York got Davis to run on a Tea Party line against status quo GOP Jane Corwin (TeaNY endorsed - TeaGOP Cartel) and Democrat Kathy Hochul." If the GOP loses, you can thank the baggers for handing over another safe GOP seat to the Dems.
#23. To: Skip Intro (#22)
"We the Tea Party Coalition of Western New York got Davis to run on a Tea Party line against status quo GOP Jane Corwin (TeaNY endorsed - TeaGOP Cartel) and Democrat Kathy Hochul." You morons who whine about the tea party amuse me. The tea party - such as it is - is as factionalized as the rest of the country. Can you not even read your own article? Corwin (the ESTABLISHMENT GOP candidate) was endorsed by TeaNY and TeaGOP Do the math: Davis' support in 3 weeks has declined from 24 percent to 12 percent (-12 points) Hochel has gone from trailing by 5 points to leading by 6. (+11 points) So where has Davis' support gone? Did you even know he has run for this seat at least twice as a DEMOCRAT? I didn't think so.
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#5. To: Skip Intro (#1)
The Republicans can thank the Teabaggers for the loss - again.
#15. To: Get Outta Dodge! (#5)
I live in the district, and I call bullshit on that one, skippy.
#20. To: Skip Intro (#15)
The Teabagger is polling 12%. That's 12% the Republican won't get.
Is that your view from 3000 miles away? I repeat - the tea-party is irrelevant in this race. Jack Davis had to quit using it in his ads. Jack Davis, for whatever vote he gets, represents those (like myself) that are sick and tired of the two-party BS (which in NY State is really just one party). Once again, the Teabaggers will cause the Republicans to loose a race they should have won.
I'm sure that will be the media spin and idiots like you will believe it.
#22. To: Get Outta Dodge! (#20)
Is that your view from 3000 miles away?
Replies to Comment # 22. Nope. I read it here, today.
If the GOP loses, you can thank the baggers for handing over another safe GOP seat to the Dems.
End Trace Mode for Comment # 22.
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