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Title: Democrat Surges in Poll Ahead of N.Y. Special Election
Source:
blogs.wsj.com/washwire
URL Source: http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2011/ ... ahead-of-n-y-special-election/
Published: May 22, 2011
Author: Siobhan Hughes
Post Date: 2011-05-22 23:01:25 by Ferret Mike
Keywords: None
Views: 4876
Comments: 31
AMHERST, N.Y. — A congressional race that may test voter support for a controversial Republican plan to overhaul Medicare remains tight before Tuesday’s special election, with a new poll suggesting that the Democrat now has a slight edge. Democrat Kathy Hochul has been campaigning in the western New York district against the House GOP plan to remake Medicare. She had support from 42% of likely voters in a survey released Saturday, compared to 38% for Republican Jane Corwin. Republicans have long represented the district, so gains by Democrats are being closely watched well beyond the region. The poll, conducted by the Siena Research Institute, surveyed more than 600 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. In a Siena poll three weeks ago, the Democrat had trailed the Republican candidate by five percentage points. Support for a third-party candidate appears to be fading. Businessman Jack Davis was picked by 12% in the most recent poll, about half the support from the prior survey. Off-cycle House elections typically draw few voters to the polls, making predictions about the outcome especially tricky. “Despite Hochul’s current lead, apparent momentum and strong favorability ratings, this race is not over yet,” said Don Levy, director of the Siena Research Institute. “Needless to say: turnout, turnout and turnout.” Mindful that voters stay away from the polls during off-year elections, Ms. Corwin is holding a get-out-the-vote rally on Saturday morning and later will knock on doors across vote-rich Erie County. Ms. Hochul is to appear Saturday morning with Bowzer of the band Sha Na Na, known for its 1950s rock music. She will later appear at a rally with Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D., N.Y.). New York’s 26th district stretches from the suburbs of Buffalo to the suburbs of Rochester. The House seat became vacant after former congressman Chris Lee, who is married, resigned following revelations that he had sent a shirtless picture of himself to a woman he was trying to meet online. The May 24 election is being watched for clues to voter reaction to Congress since Republicans gained new power in the 2010 mid-term elections. The Republican-controlled House, supported by the fiscally conservative tea party, has insisted on reducing federal spending. As part of that effort, House Republicans approved a plan to end Medicare’s traditional role as a fee-for-service program, turning it instead into a system of subsidized, private health insurance plans. The change would not affect people who are now age 55 or older. In the Siena survey, about equal numbers of voters said that Medicare, jobs and the federal budget deficit were the issues most important to them. Mr. Davis has been running television advertisements criticizing the outsourcing of jobs to China, a message that plays well in a region where manufacturing has been in decline. The businessman, who spent millions of dollars of his own money on earlier campaigns for Congress, was seen on video recently losing his temper when a Corwin aide taunted him for failing to participate in a debate.
The special election to fill a House seat in upstate New York was supposed to be an easy victory for Republican Jane Corwin, left. But support for Democrat Kathy Hochul, right, is growing.
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#1. To: Ferret Mike (#0)
The Republicans can thank the Teabaggers for the loss - again.
Are you really that dumb?
I'm trying to catch up with you but I think your lead is too great.
Long? A Dem won in 2000, 1998 and 1996.
I live in the district, and I call bullshit on that one, skippy. This impending loss will be squarely on the repub establishment.
Nope. Tom Reynolds was not a democrat.
Yep.
America...My Kind Of Place... "I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..." Yep. I see the Staten Island Fairy has chimed in. Bullshit to you, too.
Wow...can I use that one? So original you are!!! Politics is about consensus. Our system was set up to be one in which consensus could be more easily attained. It's why theh Framers didn't believe in political parties and factionalism [Feeralist #10] and it was one of the few points of agreement that the Federalists and the anti-Fedralists [Cato #3] shared.
America...My Kind Of Place... "I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..." The Tea Party made the foolish mstake by trying to kill Medicare. That's what has changed the situation here. I'd say the way the Tea Party is going they will be going to have the same 'bright' future Palisades Amusement Park did at the rate they are going.
The question is if a mere plurality of the vote is required for the win, or lacking a majority, will a runoff be required?
Now, I know I’m not going to change the minds of any of the True Believers…those who read all of Reverend Al’s sermons, and say things like, “You know, global warming can mean warmer OR colder, wetter OR drier, cloudier OR sunnier, windier OR calmer, …”. Can I get an ‘amen’??
Piss off; boy.
Like I wrote previously, I live in this district. The so-called tea party in this election is irrelevant. This is a republican (note I did not say conservative) district. It was purposely gerrymandered to be that way. Being a Calvin Coolidge conservative (I'm voting for Jack Davis, myself), I'm going to enjoy seeing the repubs go down. Even though it will mean being reprsented by a Nancy Pelosi clone. Corwin and the repub establishment have run a completely incompetent campaign. Period. Think Bob Dole- 1996. The weird thing is - had a republican won, the district would probably have gone away due to re-districting. Now, it probably won't.
Now, it probably won't. " Interesting perspective, thanks.
This impending loss will be squarely on the repub establishment The Teabagger is polling 12%. That's 12% the Republican won't get. Once again, the Teabaggers will cause the Republicans to loose a race they should have won.
Wha...huh? Dole actually ran a pretty good campaign.
America...My Kind Of Place... "I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..." Wha...huh? Dole actually ran a pretty good campaign. The country would have been better had Dole won that race. THere may have never been a Bush 2 and no Obama.
Kemp is gay...the nation would have suffered that as a scandal.
America...My Kind Of Place... "I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..." Good to see you are looking out for Republican interests from those mean old Tea Partiers, dummy.
war has to do something for entertainment. The voices in his head aren't speaking to him and his imaginary friends have found reasons not to come over anymore.
My vote for Davis will be strictly a protest vote. Not that it matters.
First I heard of that one. I think you lie. Anyway I remember Kemp underperforming in the VP debate.
Nope. I read it here, today. "We the Tea Party Coalition of Western New York got Davis to run on a Tea Party line against status quo GOP Jane Corwin (TeaNY endorsed - TeaGOP Cartel) and Democrat Kathy Hochul." If the GOP loses, you can thank the baggers for handing over another safe GOP seat to the Dems.
"We the Tea Party Coalition of Western New York got Davis to run on a Tea Party line against status quo GOP Jane Corwin (TeaNY endorsed - TeaGOP Cartel) and Democrat Kathy Hochul." You morons who whine about the tea party amuse me. The tea party - such as it is - is as factionalized as the rest of the country. Can you not even read your own article? Corwin (the ESTABLISHMENT GOP candidate) was endorsed by TeaNY and TeaGOP Do the math: Davis' support in 3 weeks has declined from 24 percent to 12 percent (-12 points) Hochel has gone from trailing by 5 points to leading by 6. (+11 points) So where has Davis' support gone? Did you even know he has run for this seat at least twice as a DEMOCRAT? I didn't think so.
Yeah, I know that. So what? He's running as a bagger now.
Will a plurality take the seat or will a runoff be required if there is no majority taken?
Now, I know I’m not going to change the minds of any of the True Believers…those who read all of Reverend Al’s sermons, and say things like, “You know, global warming can mean warmer OR colder, wetter OR drier, cloudier OR sunnier, windier OR calmer, …”. Can I get an ‘amen’??
Winner wins...
America...My Kind Of Place... "I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..." Bullshit.
America...My Kind Of Place... "I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..." America...My Kind Of Place... "I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..." Per Salon... "The agency (FBI) finally concluded that the chatter -- which haunted, and hindered, Kemp's attempts to advance in national politics for years -- was unsubstantiated." That ain't yukon.
Bush made a mistake by trying to save it.
#2. To: Skip Intro (#1)
#3. To: A K A Stone (#2)
Are you really that dumb?
#4. To: Ferret Mike (#0)
Republicans have long represented the district
#5. To: Skip Intro (#1)
The Republicans can thank the Teabaggers for the loss - again.
#6. To: socalv8 (#4)
Long? A Dem won in 2000, 1998 and 1996.
#7. To: Skip Intro (#1)
The Republicans can thank the Teabaggers for the loss - again.
--GW Bush
#8. To: war (#7)
The Republicans can thank the Teabaggers for the loss - again.
#9. To: Get Outta Dodge! (#8)
(Edited)
I see the Staten Island Fairy has chimed in.
--GW Bush
#10. To: Get Outta Dodge! (#8)
"I see the Staten Island Fairy has chimed in."
#11. To: Ferret Mike (#0)
#12. To: no gnu taxes (#11)
#13. To: Ferret Mike (#10)
The Tea Party made the foolish mstake by trying to kill Medicare.
#14. To: Get Outta Dodge! (#13)
"The weird thing is - had a republican won, the district would probably have gone away due to re-districting.
#15. To: Get Outta Dodge! (#5)
I live in the district, and I call bullshit on that one, skippy.
#16. To: Get Outta Dodge! (#13)
Think Bob Dole- 1996.
--GW Bush
#17. To: war (#16)
hink Bob Dole- 1996.
#18. To: A K A Stone (#17)
--GW Bush
#19. To: Skip Intro (#15)
Once again, the Teabaggers will cause the Republicans to loose a race they should have won.
#20. To: Skip Intro (#15)
The Teabagger is polling 12%. That's 12% the Republican won't get.
Is that your view from 3000 miles away? I repeat - the tea-party is irrelevant in this race. Jack Davis had to quit using it in his ads. Jack Davis, for whatever vote he gets, represents those (like myself) that are sick and tired of the two-party BS (which in NY State is really just one party). Once again, the Teabaggers will cause the Republicans to loose a race they should have won.
I'm sure that will be the media spin and idiots like you will believe it.
#21. To: war (#18)
Kemp is gay...the nation would have suffered that as a scandal.
#22. To: Get Outta Dodge! (#20)
Is that your view from 3000 miles away?
#23. To: Skip Intro (#22)
Nope. I read it here, today.
If the GOP loses, you can thank the baggers for handing over another safe GOP seat to the Dems.
#24. To: Get Outta Dodge! (#23)
So where has Davis' support gone? Did you even know he has run for this seat at least twice as a DEMOCRAT?
#25. To: Get Outta Dodge! (#23)
#26. To: no gnu taxes (#25)
--GW Bush
#27. To: A K A Stone (#21)
I think
--GW Bush
#28. To: A K A Stone (#21)
--GW Bush
#29. To: war (#28)
#30. To: war (#18)
#31. To: Ferret Mike (#10)
The Tea Party made the foolish mstake by trying to kill Medicare.
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