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Sports Title: 136TH PREAKNESS STAKES - Pick a Winner PREAKNESS REPORT MAY 20, 2011 by James Scully The Preakness (G1) storyline centers around the Kentucky Derby (G1) winner. ANIMAL KINGDOM (Leroidesanimaux [Brz]) will have the Triple Crown within his sights with a victory, one of the most elusive goals in all of sports, and his performance will dictate the level of interest in the Belmont S. (G1) three weeks later. The last leg of the series loses much of its appeal to the general public when a Triple Crown isn't on the line. The Preakness certainly looks doable for Animal Kingdom. Bred to excel at classic distances, the chestnut colt was overlooked at 20-1 at Churchill Downs primarily because he had never raced on dirt. He answered that question in resounding fashion, powering home to win by 2 3/4 easy lengths, and the late runner overcame slow fractions up front. A much more legitimate pace is expected Saturday. Animal Kingdom received a 105 BRIS Speed rating, an exceptional number for this year's three-year-old division, and will enter the Preakness as a relatively fresh horse, making only two starts this year prior to Derby. He's under the care of top horseman Graham Motion and has the potential to keep moving forward. Listed at 2-1 on the morning line, Animal Kingdom will head postward as the favorite among 14 runners. I think his odds will be even lower, possibly in the 3-2 range, because the betting public recognizes this isn't a strong crop and Animal Kingdom represents a rising star, one who is possibly head and shoulders above the competition. They will readily jump on the bandwagon. Sentimental reasons aside (I love it when a Triple Crown is in play at Belmont), I'm going to take a contrarian approach toward betting the Preakness. The Derby was a strange race that played more like a turf event where it all came down to the stretch run. Credit John Velazquez for a heady ride aboard Animal Kingdom -- his mount was never more than 6 1/4 lengths back at any point of call -- but outside closers were winning regardless of pace scenario late in the afternoon on Derby day. Animal Kingdom won't receive the same trip over the same kind of track Saturday. He could still prove best, but I'm willing to take a stand against for the win, using the Derby winner in second and third on any exotic tickets. And I won't be recommending any of the Derby also-rans over Animal Kingdom. DANCE CITY (City Zip) is my top selection. He received the perfect draw in post 8, outside the other two confirmed front runners, and is capable of sitting a perfect stalking trip in third, waiting to pounce in a good spot beneath Ramon Dominguez. A maiden winner at 1 1/8 miles three starts previously, the Virginia-bred colt has received a stiff test in each of his last two starts, gutting out a nose decision over a deep allowance field before recording an excellent third in the Arkansas Derby (G1), beaten only 1 3/4 lengths. He owns a huge upside for Todd Pletcher. In the Arkansas Derby, Dance City arguably lost something before the break, acting up terribly while refusing to load in a headstrong manner. He proceeded to do the dirty work for the late runners, chasing the pacesetter in second through fast fractions, and performed gamely all the way to the wire, re-rallying past Sway Away (Afleet Alex) in deep stretch. Dance City is eligible to improve significantly off this performance, and I think he'll be the horse to catch turning for home. I'll also play a saver on FLASHPOINT (Pomeroy), who looms as a wire-to-wire threat. He appears to be training splendidly in preparation, recording a series of blistering moves over the Keeneland Polytrack in the last 30 days, and he figures to get straight to the lead and rail after breaking from post 4. Just when we expect a fast and contested pace, a scenario like the Kentucky Derby materializes. If Flashpoint gets loose and slows it down Saturday, he may not come back to the field. Enjoy the Preakness! 136TH PREAKNESS STAKES Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 3.
#1. To: All (#0)
(Edited)
Crap! The race card looked fine in preview... My long shot bet: Flashpoint #4 WPS My trifecta box: Flashpoint #4, Mucho Macho Man #9 and Animal Kingdom #11 My straight exacta bet: #11-#9 Dialed In might ruin my betting day, although a handful of others are capable of doing the same.
10 Dialed In Nick Zito Julien Leparoux 9-2
I just read that Dialed In is the current favorite on the tote board. The favorite has won 7 of the last 10 Preakness races. I'm out 50 bucks if you're correct. I hope you're wrong:(
#4. To: Fred Mertz (#3)
Well Fred, for your sake and since you do bet the races, I hope I'm wrong too...&;-)
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