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Title: Dems Retake Edge In Generic Ballot For First Time Since 2009
Source:
TPM
URL Source: http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/ ... -for-first-time-since-2009.php
Published: May 12, 2011
Author: TPM
Post Date: 2011-05-12 16:39:58 by go65
Keywords: None
Views: 1141
Comments: 6
Just a few months removed from last year's midterm elections, the wave that swept Republicans to an epic victory has already receded, as they now trail Democrats in a generic election ballot, according to the latest TPM Poll Average. Last year, Republicans held a huge edge in generic ballot surveys as voters turned against the party in power, Democrats. But since taking over control of the House of Representatives back in January, that big lead has quickly evaporated, giving Democrats an edge they haven't had in the TPM Poll Average in about a year and a half, since November 2009.
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#1. To: All (#0)
the GOP should have kept its hands off of the tea party's medicare.
"Thats because your basically and idiot." The generic ballot has never meant much, except in years when the opposition has sweep the incumbents out of power (like 2008). Here's what really counts in 2012: The Democrats have to defend 21 Senate seats (plus Saunders and Lieberman's seat), while the GOP only has to defend 11 seats. At least 3 to 4 Democrat seats will switch hands. On the GOP side, Scott Brown might be vulnerable. The GOP will likely take charge of the Senate. But it won't be a sweep year and they cannot possibly get a 60 seat filibuster proof majority.
At least 3 to 4 Democrat seats will switch hands. On the GOP side, Scott Brown might be vulnerable. The GOP will likely take charge of the Senate. But it won't be a sweep year and they cannot possibly get a 60 seat filibuster proof majority. All true. As for a sweep, it depends on how much worse the economy gets between now and November 2012. One of the things the talking heads and pollsters can't take into account is the tidal wave of foreclosures. They've come to a standstill due to the robo signing scandal, and those foreclosures are like a river flooding behind a very weak dam. That 'dam' will give way, figuratively, later this year. When it does...wow.
Proxy IP's are amusing.....lmao
You are probably right, but it's likely the Dems could regain some seats in the House. There are a lot of GOP districts that went for Obama in 2008. A lot depends as well on who wins the GOP nomination and what kind of turnout he (or she) can draw. If it's someone like Gingrich, well, you could see a replay of 1972 with Obama winning a bunch of red states.
"Thats because your basically and idiot." You keep arguing that the economy is in the toilet "now" and has been an utter disaster on Obama's watch, yet Obama leads every major Republican contender, and many by double-digits. You forget that Obama has to run against "somebody" and right now the GOP still lacks any credible challenger, or any credible alternative economic policy. Instead, they are continuing to spend all their time focusing on social issues, or on attempts to undo 40 year old popular programs that are putting them on the defensive. And as a result, for the first time since 2009, Democrats lead on the generic ballot.
"Thats because your basically and idiot."
Badeye posted on 2011-04-29 10:30:22 ET
#2. To: go65 (#1)
#3. To: go65 (#0)
"Everything that can be invented has been invented."-- Charles Duell, Commissioner of US Patent Office, 1899
#4. To: jwpegler (#3)
Here's what really counts in 2012: The Democrats have to defend 21 Senate seats (plus Saunders and Lieberman's seat), while the GOP only has to defend 11 seats.
#5. To: jwpegler (#3)
The GOP will likely take charge of the Senate. But it won't be a sweep year and they cannot possibly get a 60 seat filibuster proof majority.
Badeye posted on 2011-04-29 10:30:22 ET
#6. To: Badeye (#4)
As for a sweep, it depends on how much worse the economy gets between now and November 2012.
Badeye posted on 2011-04-29 10:30:22 ET
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