Just a few months removed from last year's midterm elections, the wave that swept Republicans to an epic victory has already receded, as they now trail Democrats in a generic election ballot, according to the latest TPM Poll Average.
Last year, Republicans held a huge edge in generic ballot surveys as voters turned against the party in power, Democrats. But since taking over control of the House of Representatives back in January, that big lead has quickly evaporated, giving Democrats an edge they haven't had in the TPM Poll Average in about a year and a half, since November 2009.
The generic ballot has never meant much, except in years when the opposition has sweep the incumbents out of power (like 2008).
Here's what really counts in 2012: The Democrats have to defend 21 Senate seats (plus Saunders and Lieberman's seat), while the GOP only has to defend 11 seats.
At least 3 to 4 Democrat seats will switch hands.
On the GOP side, Scott Brown might be vulnerable.
The GOP will likely take charge of the Senate. But it won't be a sweep year and they cannot possibly get a 60 seat filibuster proof majority.
The GOP will likely take charge of the Senate. But it won't be a sweep year and they cannot possibly get a 60 seat filibuster proof majority.
You are probably right, but it's likely the Dems could regain some seats in the House. There are a lot of GOP districts that went for Obama in 2008.
A lot depends as well on who wins the GOP nomination and what kind of turnout he (or she) can draw. If it's someone like Gingrich, well, you could see a replay of 1972 with Obama winning a bunch of red states.
