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politics and politicians
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Title: Snapshot of a split America
Source: The Miami Herald
URL Source: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/05/ ... apshot-of-a-split-america.html
Published: May 11, 2011
Author: TIM RUTTEN
Post Date: 2011-05-11 19:46:40 by lucysmom
Keywords: None
Views: 17845
Comments: 37

One of American politics’ most comforting nostrums is the notion that we always are united by far more than what divides us. It’s a sentiment Barack Obama repeats frequently in his speeches, and both the president and California Gov. Jerry Brown are relying on it to help them move toward resolution of government’s worst budgetary crisis in generations.

A comprehensive new survey of the American electorate by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center, however, indicates that the most politically engaged Americans now are fundamentally opposed to compromise, divided on virtually every basic national question and separated from each other by everything from their race to the choice of where they get their news. Moreover, the increasing numbers of independents, who’ve theoretically pushed national politics to the center with their preference for middle-of-the-road policies, no longer are particularly moderate. California has traversed this sort of political landscape for more than a decade, and now the rest of the nation seems poised to discover that it’s a difficult and discomforting place.

The nation’s partisan alignment, according to Pew, now closely resembles California’s: 25 percent of the registered voters hold views that make them “mostly Republican”; 40 percent incline “mostly Democratic”; and 35 percent are independents of various stripes.

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 37.

#3. To: lucysmom (#0) (Edited)

25 percent of the registered voters hold views that make them “mostly Republican”; 40 percent incline “mostly Democratic”; and 35 percent are independents of various stripes

It's no different than it's been for 30 years.

In 1984 Reagan carried all of the independents and got nearly 59% of the vote (25% GOP + 35% independent = 60%). Mondale barely got 40%.

In 1992, a lot of the independents abandoned the GOP. Bush got 37%,Perot got 19%, and Clinton got 43% (not much more than Mondale).

The Perot voters in 1992 aren't a whole lot different than Tea Party members today. I was lightly involved with Perot in 1992, and they are the same types of people as the Tea Party -- salt of the earth, hardworking, very rural, mostly white,and pissed as hell...

jwpegler  posted on  2011-05-11   20:10:40 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#26. To: jwpegler (#3)

25 percent of the registered voters hold views that make them “mostly Republican”; 40 percent incline “mostly Democratic”; and 35 percent are independents of various stripes It's no different than it's been for 30 years.

Actually this poll is heavily weighted towards Dem voters by a two to one margin over Republican voters.

Same thing with the laughable AP poll out this week showing a ridiculous 60% approval rating for Owe-bama's job performance.

Badeye  posted on  2011-05-12   9:48:47 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#36. To: Badeye (#26) (Edited)

Actually this poll is heavily weighted towards Dem voters

Nope. The Pew numbers add up. Over the years, I've found Pew to be very accurate in term of political demographics.

The Democrats have a hard floor of about 40% of the national vote in Presidential elections. Yet, the Democrats have only barely reached 50% twice in the last 42 years (1976 and 2008). Most of the time, they are in the low 40s (which represents their base and a handful of independents).

On the other hand, the GOP Presidential vote swings wildly (from 61% to 37%) depending on whether or not an independent candidate is in the race.

The lesson is that independents are largely default GOP voters unless the GOP screws up. Unfortunately, the GOP screws up a lot, just like they did under Bush.

Pew has this exactly right.

jwpegler  posted on  2011-05-12   23:48:48 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#37. To: jwpegler (#36)

Nope. The Pew numbers add up.

That has nothing to do with how Pew weighted the pool of those they asked, JW.

Its heavily democrat.

Badeye  posted on  2011-05-13   9:30:01 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


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