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Title: Libya: Obama's Kinetic Cut & Run-Stalemate Likely Outcome
Source:
AP & WP
URL Source: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/storie ... AULT&CTIME=2011-04-02-09-14-56
Published: Apr 2, 2011
Author: BURNS (ap)-Warrick & Sly (wp)
Post Date: 2011-04-02 13:53:13 by Happy Quanzaa
Keywords: Obama-doma-ding-dong, Obamatuer Hour, Manchild-in-Chief
Views: 803
Comments: 1
Apr 2, 12:44 PM EDT By ROBERT BURNS WASHINGTON (AP) -- Two weeks after a dark-of-night barrage of mostly U.S. missiles and bombs opened the international air assault on Libya's Moammar Gadhafi, the American combat role is ending, the rag-tag rebels are reeling and the Pentagon is betting its European allies can finish the job. Gadhafi is still standing, with a few uncertain signs that his inner circle could crack. The Obama administration is hoping that if Gadhafi's government doesn't implode soon, a relentless campaign of airstrikes on his tanks, air defenses and most trusted army units will at least weaken his ability to survive a renewed uprising by a disjointed opposition. The rebels initially rattled Gadhafi but in recent days have given up most of their gains. The bottom line, according to Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: "He's still killing his people." So the mission remains incomplete, but the U.S. is following through on a pledge to shift the main combat burden to Britain, France and other NATO allies. Starting Sunday, no U.S. combat aircraft are to fly strike missions in Libya. Also falling silent on Sunday will be the initial workhorses of the military campaign: U.S. Navy destroyers and submarines that launched Tomahawk cruise missiles from the positions in the Mediterranean Sea. The planes and naval vessels will be on standby in case NATO commanders decide their own forces cannot handle the mission on their own. Combat air missions will continue to be flown by Britain, France and other NATO member countries. A larger group of participating air forces will patrol over Libya to ensure that Gadhafi's air force stays grounded. U.S. planes will support them with refueling aircraft and electronic jammers. The Navy began the operation March 19 with 12 ships in the Mediterranean. As of Friday, nine remained: the submarines USS Florida and USS Scranton; destroyers USS Stout and USS Barry; amphibious warships USS Kearsarge and USS Ponce; the command ship USS Mount Whitney; and two supply ships, USNS Robert E. Peary and USNS Kanawha. The subs and the destroyers are armed with Tomahawks. Marine Harrier attack planes launch from aboard the Kearsarge, and the Mount Whitney had served as a floating command post for the American admiral who was the on-scene commander until NATO took control Thursday. The Mount Whitney remains assigned to the mission but the new operational commander, Canadian Lt. Gen. Charles Bouchard, is working ashore at his NATO headquarters in Naples, Italy. The U.S. Navy is likely to peel more ships away from the mission in coming days, including some of those with Tomahawks. The international military mission has been limited from the start, with the stated objective of protecting Libyan civilians from attack. But until this weekend's U.S. stand down, Air Force and Marine attack planes have chased down Libyan tanks and other targets on a daily basis. Marine Lt. Col. Shawn R. Hermley, a Harrier pilot who estimates he has flown about a dozen combat missions over Libya, said in an interview Friday that he's not personally bothered that he'll no longer be dropping 500-pound guided bombs on Gadhafi's tanks, armored personnel carriers and self-propelled artillery. He said his Harrier detachment has made a difference, while taking care not to risk civilian casualties. "If we were to walk away today, I'd be very proud of that and realize that we've made a significant impact to protect the people of Libya," he said by telephone from aboard the Kearsarge. Still to be decided is whether the White House will up the ante and provide arms to the rebels. That step, say some congressional supporters of the Libya mission, is crucial to ensuring that the strategic goal of ousting Gadhafi is achieved before he kills still more opponents. "We are concerned that regional support will waver if Western forces are perceived as presiding over a military deadlock," Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Joe Lieberman, a Connecticut independent, wrote Friday in the Wall Street Journal. "We cannot allow Gadhafi to consolidate his grip over part of the country and settle in for the long haul." They called for a "more robust and coherent package of aid" to the rebels, who are armed mainly with light weapons. Mullen estimated in congressional testimony on Thursday that as few as 1,000 among the rebels are former members of Gadhafi's military. The rest are simply "guys with guns," said James Dubik, a retired Army three-star general who says they need American or NATO advisers and trainers to be effective. "They need help," Dubik wrote in an assessment for the Institute for the Study of War, a think tank. On the political front, the U.S. and its allies are hoping that the defection to Britain on Wednesday by Libyan Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa is a sign of things to come. "We believe that Moussa Koussa's departure is yet another sign of fracturing within the regime, and we would urge others within the regime to follow his example," State Department spokesman Mark Toner said Friday. "We've been very explicit in saying that we believe they should read the writing on the wall that they should step down." In a further indication that Gadhafi's resilience may be eroding, his government is trying to hold talks with the U.S., Britain and France in hopes of ending the air campaign, said Abdul-Ati al-Obeidi, a former Libyan prime minister who has served as a Gadhafi envoy during the crisis. U.S. officials are becoming increasingly resigned to the possibility of a protracted stalemate in Libya, with rebels retaining control of the eastern half of the divided country but lacking the muscle to drive Moammar Gaddafi from power. Such a deadlock — perhaps backed by a formal cease-fire agreement — could help ensure the safety of Libyan civilians caught in the crossfire between the warring sides. But it could also dramatically expand the financial and military commitments by the United States and allied countries that have intervened in the six-week-old conflict, according to U.S. officials familiar with planning for the Libyan operation. New evidence of a possible impasse emerged Friday as an opposition spokesman called publicly for a cease-fire that would halt the fighting and essentially freeze the battle lines. The Libyan government rejected the proposal, saying it would not “withdraw from our own cities.” At the same time, British officials privately disclosed a recent visit to London by a senior aide to one of Gaddafi’s sons, prompting new speculation that those close to the Libyan leader were exploring ways to end the fighting. Gaddafi loyalists continued to pound rebel fighters in the key oil hub of Brega, a town that had been claimed by anti-government forces less than a week ago. Yet, despite repeated setbacks in recent days, intelligence assessments suggest that the rebels, with continuing NATO air support, are capable now of maintaining control of strongholds such as Benghazi as well as key oil fields in eastern Libya, according to two U.S. officials privy to classified reports from the region who agreed to discuss them only on the condition of anonymity. U.S. analysts have concluded that Gaddafi will likely not step aside voluntarily, despite recent defections by top aides. Nor is he likely to be driven anytime soon from his Tripoli base, where he has surrounded himself with highly paid fighters and tribal kinsmen who remain fiercely loyal, the officials said. One likened the current conflict to an evenly matched football game, with two sides skirmishing over a few yards in midfield. “Neither side seems capable of moving the ball down the field,” said the U.S. official. “It is also true that neither side has endless resources.” A stalemate could mean an open-ended mission for the coalition of NATO and Arab countries now enforcing the no-fly zone over Libya, increasing both the financial and political costs for the participants. But analysts are increasingly confident that Gaddafi can be largely contained within a divided Libya, unable to significantly threaten his neighbors and gradually weakening over time. “He remains a danger .41;.41;. but over time he could be squeezed,” said a second U.S. official familiar with intelligence assessments. While it is possible that Gaddafi could be assassinated or overthrown, he maintains an elaborate, multilayered personal security system that has protected him for decades. “By all accounts he is very paranoid, and he will fend for his own survival,” the official said. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates did not mention such an outcome when he was asked in congressional testimony Thursday about likely results. One scenario, Gates said, was “that somebody from his military takes him out and then cuts a deal with the opposition.” In another case, Gaddafi’s loyalist tribes “abandon him and then cut their own deals with each other.” “Another alternative would be clearly our preferred option, which would be that they — these opposition forces and the tribes — come together and begin to create something that resembles a more democratic state that protects the rights of its people,” he said. At a separate hearing last week, Gen. Carter F. Ham, head of U.S. Africa Command, acknowledged the possibility of a deadlock in which Gaddafi would continue to control part of the country. “I do see a situation where that could be the case,” he said. “I could see accomplishing the military mission, which has been assigned to me, and the current leader would remain the current leader.” U.S. officials and independent analysts say that Gaddafi has been badly weakened by defections, airstrikes and a freeze on his foreign-held assets, and that he has few allies outside of Latin America. Anthony Cordesman, a defense and security analyst for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Gaddafi’s internal support would likely “erode from the margins,” as tribal leaders and military commanders peel off despite his ability to pay them. But the prospects are nearly as grim for his opponents, a rebel force with “no discipline, no communications and no intelligence, and at best an improvised logistics and supply chain.” “You can’t fix those things quickly or easily,” he said. With their proposal for a cease-fire, Libyan rebels appeared to acknowledge their inability to prevail militarily. A spokesman for the opposition offered to halt fighting if Gaddafi would withdraw his troops from Libyan cities and allow people to speak freely. “We are seeking immediate withdrawal of Gaddafi forces around and inside cities to give Libyan people the freedom to choose,” said Mustafa Abdel Jalil, president of the opposition’s provisional council. “Our main aim is to remove the siege from the cities,” he said at a news conference with a United Nations envoy. Government spokesman Moussa Ibrahim dismissed the offer. “If this is not mad, then I don’t know what is. We will not leave our cities,” Ibrahim said. Talk of a cease-fire comes at the end of a week in which rebel forces briefly regained two oil ports and then were repelled back to Ajdabiya, 99 miles from the rebel stronghold of Benghazi. In Tripoli, meanwhile, heavy gunfire erupted before dawn Friday as tensions rose in the capital following rumors that other government officials were preparing to join Foreign Minister Musa Kusa in defecting from Gaddafi’s government. Sustained bursts of automatic fire were heard coming from the direction of Gaddafi’s Bab al-Aziziya compound about 2 a.m. and again shortly before dawn. Ambulances and police cars were seen speeding through the deserted streets, but there was no immediate explanation for the unusual overnight activity. Witnesses told Reuters that they had seen “pools of blood” outside the compound that had been cleaned away by morning. One said sharpshooters had been positioned on high buildings around the capital, perhaps to preempt any possible demonstrations after Friday prayers, which had served as a rallying point for opposition protests before they were stamped out. Journalists who attempted to leave their hotel unaccompanied by government minders were turned back by armed men. Kusa was the most senior Gaddafi minister to abandon the regime, and his defection in London on Wednesday prompted appeals by U.S. and British officials for other top figures to follow him into exile. But there were no new reports Friday of defections. A senior aide to Gaddafi’s powerful son Saif al-Islam has been in London recently talking to government officials, a British official said Friday, speaking on the condition of anonymity. The official said Mohammed Ismail “has family in the U.K., I believe his children are in school here, and while he was visiting family we took the opportunity to talk to him. We gave him strong messages about the Gaddafi regime and told him it was time for Gaddafi to go, and encouraged those around Gaddafi to leave.” British media reports have speculated that Ismail was exploring exit strategies with British officials for one or more members of the Gaddafi family. A spokesman at the British Foreign Office declined to comment on Ismail’s visit but said talks with Kusa are “ongoing.” warrickj@washpost.com slys@washpost.com Sly reported from Tripoli. Special correspondent Karla Adam in London and staff writer Craig Whitlock contributed to this report.
Libya mission: US eases off, Gadhafi holds on
AP National Security Writer
Stalemate in Libya increasingly viewed as a likely outcome
By Joby Warrick and Liz Sly, Friday, April , 9:07 PM
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#1. To: Happy Quanzaa (#0)
... The Obama administration is hoping that if Gadhafi's government doesn't implode soon, a relentless campaign of airstrikes on his tanks, air defenses and most trusted army units will at least weaken his ability to survive... The bottom line, according to Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: "He's still killing his people." And American bombs, missiles, and assaults aren't?? The real bottom line is a US military that doesn't even know who the "good guys" are, nor do they care - just as long as they receive combat pay and slap each other on the back for, "kickin' ass." One day the American military might actually need to defend....the USA. But none of us will ever see that day because one day soon its very citizenry will be attacked with the same vigor and regarded as "terrorists" by those who will say, "Just following orders."
Two weeks after a dark-of-night barrage of mostly U.S. missiles and bombs opened the international air assault on Libya's Moammar Gadhafi, the American combat role is ending...
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