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Economy
See other Economy Articles

Title: Roubini Predicts Oil Will Hit $150 Per Barrel, Traders Betting On $200
Source: Forbes
URL Source: http://blogs.forbes.com/chrisbarth/ ... barrel-traders-betting-on-200/
Published: Mar 7, 2011
Author: Chris Barth
Post Date: 2011-03-08 09:08:54 by Happy Quanzaa
Keywords: Obamanomics in Action
Views: 36337
Comments: 41

“Oil price shocks have led to US recessions in 1974-75, 1980, 1990, 2001 and 2008-2009. 3 of these were caused by Mid East political shocks,” notoriously bearish economist Nouriel Roubini wrote on his Twitter account at the end of February.

Last Wednesday, he made another bold prediction: “If troubles spread to other countries such as Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, this could push oil prices up to $140 to $150 per barrel, which could trigger a double-dip recession in the periphery of Europe and the U.K.”

While the predicted oil price may seem shock-worthy, the correlation of oil prices and recession should not. As James Hamilton, an Economics Professor at the University of California, San Diego, wrote last year, rising oil prices are a potential retardant to economic recovery, both in the automotive sector as well as across consumer spending in general.

“I could certainly imagine that an abrupt move up in gasoline prices from here could hurt the struggling recovery of the domestic auto sector and dampen overall consumer spending,” Hamilton wrote in a fascinating post on EconBrowser.com. “I do not think it would be enough to give us a second economic downturn, but it could easily be a factor reducing the growth rate.”

Hamilton wrote that statement when oil prices had just pushed past $90/barrel. Now, price per barrel is at its highest level in over two years, and Roubini, known for his gloom and doom predictions, says the tough ride is just beginning. According to Forbes’ Robert Lenzner, Roubini’s predicted price of $150/barrel could take 2% out of the U.S. GDP.

It seems that plenty of traders agree with Roubini’s bearish outlook. A chart published today by Bloomberg shows a sharp increase in traders buying call options on $200/barrel oil futures, which expire on May 17th.

When Roubini sat down with Steve Forbes in January, he made predictions about the future of the U.S. economy. Thus far, he has been proven wrong about his take on unemployment, which he stated would remain above 9%.

He also, however, predicted a U.S. GDP growth of 2.7% this year, below the consensus of 3.2%. If oil prices continue to rise and the U.S. economy responds negatively, Dr. Doom could find himself in the rare position of having been overly bullish.

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#1. To: Happy Quanzaa (#0)

Nope.

Cause $4+ gasoline, you might as well make it ten, for all the Bottom 98% can afford it.

$3.50 plus is causing major problems now.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2011-03-08   9:51:18 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: mcgowanjm, Happy Quanzaa (#1)

Isn't capitalism wonderful (for the top .005%)?

"Keep Your Goddamn Government Hands Off My Medicare!" - Various Tea Party signs.

Godwinson  posted on  2011-03-08   9:57:46 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: Godwinson (#2)

Isn't capitalism wonderful (for the top .005%)?

It would be wonderful if Big Government hadn't killed free market capitalism with it's statist draconian regulations, mandates, and the world's highest corporate tax rate and let Evil Capitalist Pig Big Oil drill here and now. As for your top .005%, look for them at Obama's Crony Capitalist Country Club, their names are Government Electric, Government Motors, Warren Buffet, Jeffrey Immelt, the 1000 ObamaCare waivered corporations, and a few hundred more of Dear Leader's closest fiends.

Happy Quanzaa  posted on  2011-03-08   10:11:03 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: Happy Quanzaa, go65 (#3)

It would be wonderful if Big Government hadn't killed free market capitalism with it's statist draconian regulations, mandates, and the world's highest corporate tax rate and let Evil Capitalist Pig Big Oil drill here and now

The price of oil is based on market speculations - nothing to do with regulations. Why would a capitalist want to sell you cheap oil? A capitalist would not drill if the price went down and he would create an artificial shortage. What you want it seems is govt subsidized oil to keep its price artificially low.

"Keep Your Goddamn Government Hands Off My Medicare!" - Various Tea Party signs.

Godwinson  posted on  2011-03-08   10:25:47 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: Godwinson (#2)

Isn't capitalism wonderful (for the top .005%)?

Top 400 have more than the Bottom 155 million.

But the winds of change are blowing. ;}

mcgowanjm  posted on  2011-03-08   10:41:35 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: Happy Quanzaa (#3)

It would be wonderful if Big Government hadn't killed free market capitalism with it's statist draconian regulations, mandates, and the world's highest corporate tax rate and let Evil Capitalist Pig Big Oil drill here and now.

Why would oil companies want lower prices? Have you missed their efforts to reduce refining capacity over the last 20 years or so?

Since January 3, 2011, Republicans have controlled the power of the purse.

go65  posted on  2011-03-08   10:43:11 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: go65 (#6) (Edited)

Why would oil companies want lower prices? Have you missed their efforts to reduce refining capacity over the last 20 years or so?

Speculators set the price using by predicting supply and demand, of which they have no control. And no, I haven't missed their efforts to reduce refining capacity, it was included in my comment regarding regulations, you either missed that or it was to abstract for your comprehension level.

Anyhow, drills turning and new refineries under construction would bring the speculator price down even before the first drop was produced. The speculators are betting, big loss or big gain. If Roubini is right and it goes to $150, and some buy at $200, then some will get burned when this surge tops out. But the instability of the supply is what makes the potential of huge gains possible and as long as the supply comes from the Middle East then it's always as gamble as to when the next interruption in supply will happen.

Happy Quanzaa  posted on  2011-03-08   11:00:22 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#8. To: Happy Quanzaa (#7) (Edited)

Anyhow, drills turning and new refineries under construction would bring the speculator price down even before the first drop was produced.

Saudi Arabia/Opec would cut back on production and this would offset nothing. You so called conservatives suck at economics.

And why would oil companies want to have cheaper oil again?????

"Keep Your Goddamn Government Hands Off My Medicare!" - Various Tea Party signs.

Godwinson  posted on  2011-03-08   11:05:15 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#9. To: Godwinson (#8) (Edited)

The Saudis and every other oil supplying shit hole would have to drop their price if they wanted the business. It would probably be cheaper to continue buying from them if the domestic infrastructure was in place and we could open up our own supply at will. I don't know why I wasted my time telling you that, neither I nor anyone else can fix stupid and you're an economic idiot, not economically ignorant.

Happy Quanzaa  posted on  2011-03-08   11:15:21 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#10. To: Happy Quanzaa (#9)

The Saudis and every other oil supplying shit hole would have to drop their price if they wanted the business.

LOL! riiiight.

"Keep Your Goddamn Government Hands Off My Medicare!" - Various Tea Party signs.

Godwinson  posted on  2011-03-08   11:17:41 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#11. To: mcgowanjm (#1)

Nope.

Cause $4+ gasoline, you might as well make it ten, for all the Bottom 98% can afford it.

I talked to a Shell Oil guy yesterday, he says 5.00 dollar diesel probably by May.

He also mentioned an engine that sounds interesting. It was patented in 1919 and uses the slightest difference in temperatures as it's energy source and also involves creating steam. He says they will unvealing it in a more modernized version probably within a few months as the original patented version looks too similiar to an old steam engine.

Is anyone else here familiar with this engine?

"http://first-draft-blog.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c5ced53ef0148c7a28c4b970c-320wi"

Rek  posted on  2011-03-08   11:23:27 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#12. To: All (#11)

I talked to a Shell Oil guy yesterday, he says 5.00 dollar diesel probably by May.

He also mentioned an engine that sounds interesting. It was patented in 1919 and uses the slightest difference in temperatures as it's energy source and also involves creating steam. He says they will unvealing it in a more modernized version probably within a few months as the original patented version looks too similiar to an old steam engine.

Is anyone else here familiar with this engine?

PING

"http://first-draft-blog.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c5ced53ef0148c7a28c4b970c-320wi"

Rek  posted on  2011-03-08   11:28:55 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#13. To: Rek (#11)

anyone else here familiar with this engine?

Yeah, it runs on coal. The price of the Carbon Credits required would make it cost prohibitive.

Happy Quanzaa  posted on  2011-03-08   11:30:51 ET  (1 image) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#14. To: Happy Quanzaa (#3)

It would be wonderful if Big Government hadn't killed free market capitalism with it's statist draconian regulations, mandates, and the world's highest corporate tax rate and let Evil Capitalist Pig Big Oil drill here and now. As for your top .005%, look for them at Obama's Crony Capitalist Country Club, their names are Government Electric, Government Motors, Warren Buffet, Jeffrey Immelt, the 1000 ObamaCare waivered corporations, and a few hundred more of Dear Leader's closest fiends.

When did we or anyone else EVER have free market capitalism, since it's hard to kill anything that never existed. Just give a date, after you first give out your definition.

"http://first-draft-blog.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c5ced53ef0148c7a28c4b970c-320wi"

Rek  posted on  2011-03-08   11:33:40 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#15. To: Rek (#12) (Edited)

He also mentioned an engine that sounds interesting. It was patented in 1919 and uses the slightest difference in temperatures as it's energy source and also involves creating steam. He says they will unvealing it in a more modernized version probably within a few months as the original patented version looks too similiar to an old steam engine.

It's a Stirling engine - used primarily on submarines (or it once was before nuclear?).

"Keep Your Goddamn Government Hands Off My Medicare!" - Various Tea Party signs.

Godwinson  posted on  2011-03-08   11:33:55 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#16. To: Rek (#11)

1. Use a heat pump(ground source, or air source in the right climate), to concentrate heat.

2. Use the concentrated heat in a boiler to generate steam.

3. Use the steam to drive a piston steam engine.

4. The steam engine then drives an electric generator.

5. Hopefully, the generator would produce more electricity than the heat pump and associated equipment need.

This sounds like a locomotive, and the boiler will be the critical part.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2011-03-08   11:51:10 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#17. To: Godwinson (#15)

It's a Thompson Engine - used primarily on submarines (or it once was before nuclear?).

I had a relative patent a Wankel type rotary engine in the same era. He swore it was the closest thing to running on water that could be acheived at the time. But the oil and auto companies soon became his worst enemy when he tried to market it and with none of those free trade loving capitalists willing to invest, he gave up.

I tried to look it up once but haven't been able to find it online. But he did proudly show me the original patent papers, which probably ended up in the dump after he died.

"http://first-draft-blog.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c5ced53ef0148c7a28c4b970c-320wi"

Rek  posted on  2011-03-08   11:52:00 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#18. To: Rek, Godwinson, All (#16) (Edited)

www.internationalsteam.co...ins/newsteam/modern29.htm

And thanks, G, for reminding me of the stirling. ;}

mcgowanjm  posted on  2011-03-08   11:54:07 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#19. To: Godwinson (#15)

It's a Stirling engine - used primarily on submarines (or it once was before nuclear?).

I think thats the type he meant. He mentioned that the difference in temp between your finger and the engine even to a tenth of a degree could power it.

"http://first-draft-blog.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c5ced53ef0148c7a28c4b970c-320wi"

Rek  posted on  2011-03-08   11:57:10 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#20. To: mcgowanjm (#16)

Use a heat pump(ground source, or air source in the right climate), to concentrate heat.

I think he meant it uses 'the difference in temperatures between two objects' as the power source and could be powered by the difference between one's finger and the engine when one's finger is placed on it. I'm elaborating a little now. The conversation wasn't very long or involved.

"http://first-draft-blog.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c5ced53ef0148c7a28c4b970c-320wi"

Rek  posted on  2011-03-08   12:05:10 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#21. To: Rek (#20)

Well then that's impossible.

Sounds like a perpetual motion machine then. The 2nd law of thermodynamics is heat goes to cold.

And/or we haven't got time to retrofit a liquid energy source/combustion engine.

It's got to be taken off the shelf or spread like wildfire on it's own.

That's all we got. $105 the bbl. $3.52 to $4 if Libya's refineries start blowing up.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2011-03-08   12:15:07 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#22. To: mcgowanjm, Rek (#21)

Well then that's impossible.

No, its possible. See the video I linked above where the Sterling works from the heat generated from the hand.

"Keep Your Goddamn Government Hands Off My Medicare!" - Various Tea Party signs.

Godwinson  posted on  2011-03-08   12:24:54 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#23. To: Godwinson (#22) (Edited)

No, its possible. See the video I linked above where the Sterling works from the heat generated from the hand.

That twin compression one is quite impressive. I like this one too. The comments are enlightening. Seems some of the critics didn't realize their gas engines needed starters too.

"http://first-draft-blog.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c5ced53ef0148c7a28c4b970c-320wi"

Rek  posted on  2011-03-08   12:41:07 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#24. To: Happy Quanzaa (#7)

Speculators set the price using by predicting supply and demand, of which they have no control. And no, I haven't missed their efforts to reduce refining capacity, it was included in my comment regarding regulations, you either missed that or it was to abstract for your comprehension level.

you continue to ignore the fact that energy firms have cut refining capacity to drive up prices.

Since January 3, 2011, Republicans have controlled the power of the purse.

go65  posted on  2011-03-08   13:01:19 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#25. To: go65 (#24)

energy firms have cut refining capacity to drive up prices

That's stupid, we haven't built a new refinery in 30 years because Big Government makes it cost prohibitive with it's draconian regulations and restrictions. Dear Leader and the Obamacrats want even more with their Cap & Tax plan.

Happy Quanzaa  posted on  2011-03-08   13:05:27 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#26. To: Happy Quanzaa (#25) (Edited)

That's stupid, we haven't built a new refinery in 30 years because Big Government makes it cost prohibitive with it's draconian regulations and restrictions. Dear Leader and the Obamacrats want even more with their Cap & Tax plan.

"Cap and 'Tax'" was a Reagan conceived and implemented concept which his administration said worked quite well.

There is plenty of gas which even the oil companies will admit.

Can you tell me why they are building new oil and gas storage facilities all over Arkansas if there is such a shortage? The only shortage is of that being put out on the market and in the mind of speculators.

"http://first-draft-blog.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c5ced53ef0148c7a28c4b970c-320wi"

Rek  posted on  2011-03-08   13:30:26 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#27. To: Happy Quanzaa (#25) (Edited)

That's stupid, we haven't built a new refinery in 30 years because Big Government makes it cost prohibitive with it's draconian regulations and restrictions. Dear Leader and the Obamacrats want even more with their Cap & Tax plan.

Great, you can repeat Fox News talking points. Congratulations.

The reality is that energy companies cut refining capacity to drive up prices. And it's happening globally, Conoco just announced plans to cut refining capacity in 2012 from 2.7 mbpd to between 2 and 2.2. Shell cut 15% of its global refining capacity last year. Meanwhile U.S. refining capacity rose from 2003 to 2010 before falling as refiners cut capacity due to falling demand.

Are you aware that between 1975 and 2000 only one application was filed with the EPA for approval to build a new refinery, and it was approved?

Since January 3, 2011, Republicans have controlled the power of the purse.

go65  posted on  2011-03-08   13:58:26 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#28. To: go65 (#27)

Moonbats ignoring the obvious:

------

But getting an oil refinery built is next to impossible, hence the 30-year construction drought. There will always be environmental activists who fight any new proposed refinery, regardless of where it might be located and how environmentally safe it is. And our environmental rules give them the upper hand.

The environmental impact-report process mobilizes the "not in my back yard" elements to oppose any proposed refinery, but it does not mobilize people or groups who are looking at national energy needs. You wind up with a very lopsided discussion where potential problems are thoroughly and perhaps overly represented, but the only group pointing out the benefits of the refinery is the "evil" oil company asking to build it — even though every automobile driver would benefit.

Consider the example of Arizona Clean Fuels, which has been trying to build a small refinery outside Yuma for almost 10 years. It took five years just to get air-quality permits. Now they hope to be operational in 2010, 15 years after they started the project.

President Bush recently signed a new energy bill that tries to make it easier to build new oil refineries, especially in areas with high unemployment — where the new jobs would likely be welcome. And yet, special-interest groups decried the provision as an environmental and public health injustice, arguing that these communities won't want refineries but won't have the political power to fight them off.

The opposition to building new refineries ignores the dramatic technological improvements that have been made since an oil refinery was last constructed here in 1976. New, clean refineries emit far less pollution than older refineries, with new scrubbers and design changes that dramatically reduce sulfur and other emissions. And at the same time our ability to model and map emission characteristics and distribution lets us choose the best locations for new facilities — where they will have the least possible impact on people and the environment.

Even as gas prices have soared beyond $2.50 per gallon in many parts of the country, Americans have not stopped driving. We might tighten our budgets elsewhere to make up for the added expenses, but we show no signs of giving up our cars. At some point, we need to admit our dependence on gasoline and add the capacity and refineries that will help lower gas prices.

Our environmental review process needs to embrace local concerns and impacts, but it can't facilitate the "not in my back yard" resistance that completely derails plans for any new refineries.

http://reason.org/news/show/122716.html

Now, I know I’m not going to change the minds of any of the True Believers…those who read all of Reverend Al’s sermons, and say things like, “You know, global warming can mean warmer OR colder, wetter OR drier, cloudier OR sunnier, windier OR calmer, …”. Can I get an ‘amen’??

no gnu taxes  posted on  2011-03-08   14:42:49 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#29. To: no gnu taxes (#28) (Edited)

you post partisan opinion pieces, I post facts:

Reality:

Conoco just announced plans to cut refining capacity in 2012 from 2.7 mbpd to between 2 and 2.2. Shell cut 15% of its global refining capacity last year. Meanwhile U.S. refining capacity rose from 2003 to 2010 before falling as refiners cut capacity due to falling demand.

Domestic refining capacity:

Since January 3, 2011, Republicans have controlled the power of the purse.

go65  posted on  2011-03-08   15:12:59 ET  (1 image) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#30. To: go65 (#29)

Meanwhile U.S. refining capacity rose from 2003 to 2010 before falling as refiners cut capacity due to falling demand.

If demand is falling, it only makes sense to temporarily curtail production, goofball. Meanwhile the reason new refineries aren't being built is not because energy companies don't want to.

Now, I know I’m not going to change the minds of any of the True Believers…those who read all of Reverend Al’s sermons, and say things like, “You know, global warming can mean warmer OR colder, wetter OR drier, cloudier OR sunnier, windier OR calmer, …”. Can I get an ‘amen’??

no gnu taxes  posted on  2011-03-08   15:18:21 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#31. To: Happy Quanzaa, No Gnu Taxes (#29) (Edited)

Exxon Mobil Corp. says it believes that, by 2030, hybrid gasoline-and-electric cars and light trucks will account for nearly 30% of new-vehicle sales in the U.S. and Canada. That surge is part of a broader shift toward fuel efficiency that Exxon thinks will cause fuel consumption by North American cars and light trucks to peak around 2020—and then start to fall. “For that reason, we wouldn’t build a grassroots refinery” in the U.S., Rex Tillerson, Exxon’s chairman and chief executive, said in a recent interview. Exxon has continued to expand the capacity of its existing refineries. But building a new refinery from scratch, Exxon believes, would be bad for long-term business.

Since January 3, 2011, Republicans have controlled the power of the purse.

go65  posted on  2011-03-08   15:22:35 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#32. To: go65 (#31)

Exxon has continued to expand the capacity of its existing refineries. building a new refinery from scratch, Exxon believes, would be bad for long-term business.

Because of the multitude of environmental and social justice issues a new refinery would bring.

Now, I know I’m not going to change the minds of any of the True Believers…those who read all of Reverend Al’s sermons, and say things like, “You know, global warming can mean warmer OR colder, wetter OR drier, cloudier OR sunnier, windier OR calmer, …”. Can I get an ‘amen’??

no gnu taxes  posted on  2011-03-08   15:30:29 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#33. To: no gnu taxes (#30)

Meanwhile the reason new refineries aren't being built is not because energy companies don't want to.

Here's an article defending the shut down of refineries because over supply makes them unprofitable.

http://www.consumerenergyreport.com/2009/10/09/what-would-ron-wyden-do/

Does it make sense to shut down refineries when demand is low and then rebuild from the ground up when demand increases?

If that's the free market at work, it seems highly inefficient and wasteful.

You have the courage to tell the masses what no politician told them: you are inferior and all the improvements in your conditions which you simply take for granted you owe to the efforts of men who are better than you. Ludwig von Mises in a letter to Ayn Rand

lucysmom  posted on  2011-03-08   15:41:05 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#34. To: lucysmom (#33) (Edited)

Does it make sense to shut down refineries when demand is low and then rebuild from the ground up when demand increases?

If that's the free market at work, it seems highly inefficient and wasteful.

energy companies have simply expanded existing refineries rather than build new ones. The Fox News crowd doesn't seem to understand that overall U.S. refining capacity has risen, even as energy companies have shut down refineries.

Fact: from 1982-2009 the U.S. went from 15.66 million barrels per day of refining capacity with 254 plants operating to 17.67 mbpd with 141 plants operating.

Since January 3, 2011, Republicans have controlled the power of the purse.

go65  posted on  2011-03-08   16:21:05 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#35. To: no gnu taxes (#32)

Because of the multitude of environmental and social justice issues a new refinery would bring.

You really can't read can you:

That surge is part of a broader shift toward fuel efficiency that Exxon thinks will cause fuel consumption by North American cars and light trucks to peak around 2020—and then start to fall. “For that reason, we wouldn’t build a grassroots refinery”

Since January 3, 2011, Republicans have controlled the power of the purse.

go65  posted on  2011-03-08   16:21:57 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#36. To: no gnu taxes (#30)

Meanwhile the reason new refineries aren't being built is not because energy companies don't want to.

So the energy companies are a bunch of liars then?

That surge is part of a broader shift toward fuel efficiency that Exxon thinks will cause fuel consumption by North American cars and light trucks to peak around 2020—and then start to fall. “For that reason, we wouldn’t build a grassroots refinery” in the U.S., Rex Tillerson, Exxon’s chairman and chief executive, said in a recent interview.

Since January 3, 2011, Republicans have controlled the power of the purse.

go65  posted on  2011-03-08   16:23:33 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#37. To: go65 (#34)

The Fox News crowd doesn't seem to understand that overall U.S. refining capacity has risen, even as energy companies have shut down refineries.

FOX isn't about to tell their viewers the truth either.

You have the courage to tell the masses what no politician told them: you are inferior and all the improvements in your conditions which you simply take for granted you owe to the efforts of men who are better than you. Ludwig von Mises in a letter to Ayn Rand

lucysmom  posted on  2011-03-08   19:19:47 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#38. To: Godwinson (#22)

rom the heat generated from the hand.

OK. So we're back to burning corn. To keep the hand warm.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2011-03-09   9:17:41 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#39. To: go65 (#36)

So the energy companies are a bunch of liars then?

No, you have just cherry-picked your "facts" to support your point. They can just as easily be demolished. For example: ......... By Mark Clayton, Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor / September 21, 2005

It took one of the nation's worst natural disasters to do it. But momentum is growing to build new refineries in the United States after a 29-year hiatus.

By shutting down 20 percent of the country's oil- refining capacity in a single day - and boosting prices nationwide by more than 45 cents a gallon on average in a week - hurricane Katrina has exposed just how stretched the nation's refineries are. Now industry and Congress are looking at how to boost capacity.

"The call to establish more refineries is likely to be sounded again," writes Jason Schenker, an economist with Wachovia Securities in a recent analysis of Katrina's impact.

"We need to specifically address our nation's lack of refining capacity and finally do something about it," said Rep. John Sullivan (R) of Oklahoma in a statement last week. "Hurricane Katrina has further underscored the fact that our refining capacity is inadequate."

But building more refineries will involve trade-offs, critics warn.

"There's an unprecedented push to build new refineries," says Denny Larson of the Refinery Reform Campaign, an environmental group that has documented refinery emissions violations in San Francisco. "We expect there well could be a wholesale change in clean-air laws that regulate refineries thanks to Katrina."

The current refinery squeeze has been building for years. For the past two decades, deregulation and low profits have combined to push the industry into consolidation. Partly because of environmental regulations, it was cheaper to expand existing refineries than to build new ones. In 1981, the US had 324 refineries with a total capacity of 18.6 million barrels per day, the Department of Energy reports. Today, there are just 132 oil refineries with a capacity of 16.8 million b.p.d., according to Oil and Gas Journal, a trade publication.

This bottleneck is expected to keep pressure on gas prices - and politicians. Both parties are weighing measures to loosen environmental and permitting constraints for refineries. Rep. John Shadegg (R) of Arizona is set to offer a bill to streamline federal regulations governing refineries, Congressional Daily reports.

Echoing that call, Representative Sullivan announced he will introduce legislation to help pave the way for a big new refinery near Cushing, Okla. His proposal, which had been stripped from the energy bill passed by Congress this summer, would speed up permitting by lessening "arcane and outdated environmental standards," he said in his statement.

But the furthest along is Arizona Clean Fuels Yuma, which aims to locate a high- tech oil refinery in the Arizona desert. The hurdles are high. The company is still lining up investors to pay the $2.5 billion price tag. It has to hire biologists to ensure the new plant will not hurt an endangered lizard. A local clean-air group is questioning the project. But if the plan is realized, it would be the first US refinery built since 1976.

"Maybe Katrina has taught us not to concentrate all refineries in one area, let alone a hurricane-prone region," says Glenn McGinnis, the company's CEO. "We need to diversify."

Congress got an earful from industry officials who argued for tax breaks to bolster capacity and complained that environmental regulations and "not in my backyard" citizen movements had blocked efforts to build new refineries.

Refineries have long been seen as undesirable. From 1999 to 2004, Chalmette Refining LLC, a partnership between ExxonMobil and Venezuela's state oil company, violated clean-air laws 34 times due to "upset" emissions that occur when normal plant operations falter, according to a judge's finding in February.

Still, many in Congress are pushing refinery construction. One possibility would be to revive proposals cut from the recent energy bill - such as President Bush's plan to convert old military bases into refineries, says John Lichtblau, chairman of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, a public- policy think tank. Earlier this month, members of the House Energy and Commerce Committee discussed the touchy subject of handing most siting authority over to the federal government.

Environmentalists remain wary. "With today's technology, a new refinery could be really clean - far cleaner than today's refineries - in theory," says Eric Schaeffer, director of the Environmental Integrity Project, a New York-based watchdog. He fears, however, that industry lobbyists would win looser regulations rather than applying all that good but costly technology.

Back in Yuma, Mr. McGinnis says his plant's best-of-class pollution technology would make it a good neighbor and keep environmental costs down. "When this refinery is finally built, it will be the cleanest in North America," he says.

BO69  posted on  2011-03-09   9:18:57 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#40. To: Rek (#23)

That twin compression one is quite impressive. I like this one too.

What's in the 'coffee cup.'

And I'll take whatever warmed the 'coffee cup'.

You can have the stirling. Like I said, if you got it, bring it now. Cause we've got Libyan Oil output dis appearing by the day now.

"Israel is the desperate state here. 40% of it's gas has been shut off by Egypt.

Israel has to make the move, along with Jordan.

The Latest news:

Confirmation Reuters (still looking for Reuters but I trust ZeroHedge;}

"reuters three plumes of black smoke are rising from the area around As Sider oil terminal"

* Rebels told Reuters on Tuesday they were in control of the front line port town of Es Sider, although it was not possible to independently confirm their presence there.

of #Kaddafi snipers killed today in Zawiyah is a Russian Mercenary. His Cell phone had the numbers of other snipers #Libya

Qaddafi sent three jets with major generals to meet Tanawi/Israel in Egypt this AM.

The point:

The Rebels now have control of all refineries. And nearly all pipelines.

Qaddafis overthrow is now just a matter of time.

And the price of oil. And I remember every lie the West told yesterday.

LMFAO 8D

If the West attacks, it's because the Rebels are in control, and the West dears the new arrangement. I've noted how oil stabilizes/goes down with Qaddafi 'good news' and up with rebel 'good news'.

Repeat:

With news from ZeroHedge/Reuters of smoke coming from around As Sider Refinery, Libya's largest, the Rebels now control All refineries in Libya. And you can wait for the US Empire to collapse before the USSA MSM tells you that. :twisted: :roll: 8-)

mcgowanjm  posted on  2011-03-09   9:19:54 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#41. To: BO69, go65 (#39)

So you agree that "drill, baby, drill" is bullshit.....

"Keep Your Goddamn Government Hands Off My Medicare!" - Various Tea Party signs.

Godwinson  posted on  2011-03-09   9:39:52 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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