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International News Title: Bush, Blair must face Iraq truth - THEY BROKE IT - LOST THE WAR - BOTH ARE NOT WAR TIME LEADERS BOTH ARE FOOLS Analysis: Bush, Blair must face Iraq truth LONDON, Aug. 4 (UPI) -- Admissions by senior British diplomats and U.S. Army generals that Iraq is currently hurtling towards civil war shatters the rosy picture their respective leaders are trying to paint. The response of British Prime Minister Tony Blair to a leaked memo from his outgoing ambassador to Baghdad reveals a man still entrenched in denial as to the disastrous effect his policies have had on the country. Confronted with a warning from William Patey that civil war was a more likely outcome in Iraq than democracy, Blair insisted that the diplomat had simply been stressing the need to "stay the course" in the country. Yet even a cursory glance at the document reveals the inadequacy of this interpretation. In his final diplomatic telegram before leaving the Iraqi capital last week, Patey warned of the break-up of Iraq along sectarian lines, saying this was more likely than the transition of the country to a stable democracy. He wrote: "The prospect of a low intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy." Painting a picture of a coalition which has continually moved the goalposts in Iraq as the unrealistic nature of its initial ambitions becomes ever more apparent, Patey cautioned that even the most modest objectives might be unachievable. "Even the lowered expectation of President Bush for Iraq -- a government that can sustain itself, defend itself and govern itself and is an ally in the war on terror -- must remain in doubt," he wrote. Even if the slide into civil war could be prevented, he said, it was likely Iraq would remain "messy and difficult" for at least five to 10 years. Pressed by reporters at his monthly press conference Thursday over the memo -- seen and reported by the BBC -- Blair offered an analysis that could only be reached with the most imaginative of wishful thinking. Patey's message had been, he said: "However difficult it is, stay the course, stand up for those people who want democracy, stand up for those people who are fighting sectarianism, stand up for a different vision of the Middle East based on democracy, liberty, the rule of law. "That is precisely what William is saying." While Patey may indeed believe that to be the best course of action, Blair's interpretation entirely overlooks the diplomat's warning that Shiite militias are dragging Iraq into civil war and are in danger of creating a "state within a state," as Hezbollah has done in Lebanon -- an almost unthinkable prospect in light of the current conflict raging between Israel and Hezbollah fighters. It also fails to address Patey's bleak assessment that British forces are incapable of dealing with Shiite militias in provinces under their control without additional help. The sense of despair among officials on the ground in Iraq was underlined by the testimony of General John Abizaid, the top U.S. military commander in the Middle East, to the Senate Armed Services Committee Thursday. He too said Iraq was currently on a trajectory towards civil war, adding dejectedly: "Sectarian violence is probably as bad as I have seen it." Like Patey, he tempered his stark assessment by insisting the situation was not hopeless, but acknowledged that additional security forces, both U.S. and Iraqi, would be necessary if civil war was to be averted. The admissions led politicians on both sides of the Atlantic to claim the rosy outlooks touted by the Bush and Blair administrations lay in tatters. Senator Hillary Clinton told Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld -- who last week insisted Iraq was not in the grip of civil war -- that the administration's "happy talk and rosy scenarios" did not disguise its failures in Iraq. "We have a full-fledged insurgency and full-blown sectarian conflict in Iraq," she said. "Now, whether you label it a civil war or not, it certainly has created a situation of extreme violence and the continuing loss of life among our troops and of the Iraqis." Meanwhile across the pond, opposition politicians called on the government to be open about the true situation in the country. "We are all in this together, and we can't act together and do the right things unless we know what is really going on." Oliver Letwin, the Conservative director of policy development, told BBC Radio. If Bush and Blair are unwilling to face up to the gravity of the situation, it may be because they are partly to blame for the growth of Iraqi sectarianism. The coalition has created a government and parliament in which membership and power is allocated on the basis of ethnic identity, ensuring a political scene in which sectarian interests prevail over national ones. More seriously, in its desperation to crush Sunni insurgents it has turned a blind eye to mass human rights violations perpetrated by Shia militia groups backed by the Shia-controlled Interior Ministry. The activities of these so-called death squads -- whose victims are almost exclusively Sunni -- have prompted revenge attacks and spiraling sectarian conflict. As a result, many Shia are turning to the so-called popular committees for self-defense now being formed in Baghdad, which authorities fear is on the brink of falling to insurgent control. U.S. commanders have recently moved 3,700 troops from Mosul to the capital, where the struggle is at a "decisive stage," according to Abizaid. Writing in Britain's The Guardian newspaper, Mark Lattimer, director of Minority Rights Group International, said : "Time and again the policies of first the coalition authorities and then the multinational force in Iraq, far from promoting reconciliation, have entrenched sectarian divisions. "The fear is that their legacy in Iraq will be seen not in Iraq's new multicultural parliament, but in districts such as al-Dora, south of Baghdad, where Sunni and Shia have lived side by side for generations, but which are now systematically being emptied of their original population as people flee for the relative safety of their own kind. The bodies of the victims of sectarian killings are left to rot, or be eaten by dogs in the street, because their families are too frightened to collect them." It is, of course, a political risk for Bush or Blair to admit the true extent of current difficulties in the countries. But it is possible that by facing up to the mistakes they have made and addressing the situation for what it is, they may actually gain public respect. For what they must remember when they don their rose-tinted spectacles, is that the rest of us aren't wearing them.
Poster Comment: DEAR BUSH THE IDIOT - YOU BROKE IT YOU LOST IT - IRAQ WAR AND THE REPUBLICAN PARTY DOWN THE DRAIN BECAUSE OF GEORGE BUSH posted 6 days ago by TLBSHOW
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