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International News Title: U.S. Increases Pressure on Egypt Military to Accelerate Mubarak Departure Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The Obama administration is increasingly counting on the Egyptian military to contain violence in the country and help accelerate President Hosni Mubarak’s departure, as the U.S. braces for growing protests. President Barack Obama’s advisers have concluded that the longer Mubarak remains as Egypt’s head of government, the more strident the political opposition will become, according to specialists on the region consulted by the administration. The U.S. is pressing for a demonstration that Mubarak will surrender power soon as European leaders stepped up rhetoric warning the government against using supporters to intimidate protestors. Vice President Omar Suleiman may already have signaled that Mubarak is about to be sidelined. Amr Hamzawy, an Egyptian political scientist who has been with demonstrators in the streets of Cairo, said he and others have discussed a plan offered by Suleiman that includes delegating Mubarak’s authority to manage the transition. Mubarak would stay in office during a six-month transition as “more or less an honorary president,” Hamzawy told a forum on Egypt at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington by telephone yesterday. “This is a face-saving solution, which is to my mind widely accepted in Egypt among many people.” Mubarak Rejects Demands Mubarak showed no signs of obliging yesterday, rejecting demands that he step down immediately in an interview with ABC News and saying he feared “there will be chaos” if he quits. The U.S. doesn’t “understand the Egyptian culture and what would happen if I step down now,” he said. European leaders stepped up their rhetoric against Mubarak today, with U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron warning the president that any further violence against opposition demonstrators would be counterproductive. “If we see on the streets of Cairo today state-sponsored violence or the hiring of thugs to beat up protesters, then Egypt and its regime would lose any remaining credibility or support it has in the eyes of the watching world, including Britain,” Cameron told reporters in Brussels, where European Union heads of government are meeting. Cameron said Europe has to show support for an “orderly transition” and that the Egyptian leadership must demonstrate a “clearly credible, transparent path” toward that transition. ‘Lot of Influence’ “It’s very smart of the U.S. to get involved,” Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said. “I can’t imagine that a transition government that gets broad support, that’s now in the works, could be led by Mubarak. Let the Americans do their job. They have a lot of influence in Egypt.” The demonstrators haven’t been placated by Mubarak’s offer to not seek re-election in September and to begin a process of constitutional reforms. Along with Mubarak’s immediate resignation, the opposition’s list of demands includes a re-run of parliamentary elections, amending of the constitution by the new legislature, and a lifting of the emergency law. The Obama administration believes only a clear signal of an immediate change will forestall a rising risk that violence in Egypt could spin out of control, an administration official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal debates. Transition Proposal The U.S. is discussing with Egyptian officials a proposal that would have Mubarak step down immediately and turn over power to a transitional government headed by Suleiman and supported by the Egyptian military, the New York Times reported, citing unidentified administration officials and Arab diplomats. That plan is one of several proposals under discussion and some officials said there isn’t yet an indication Suleiman or the military is ready to abandon Mubarak, the Times said. “We have discussed with the Egyptians a variety of different ways to move” the transition process ahead, “but all of those decisions must be made by the Egyptian people,” Tommy Vietor, a spokesman for Obama’s National Security Council, said in an e-mailed response to questions. The U.S. doesn’t “see a transition going smoothly with Mubarak as the titular head of state,” said Brian Katulis, a Mideast specialist at the Center for American Progress in Washington who is among a number of outsiders who have advised members of the National Security Council on Egypt this week. The administration recognizes that the “longer protests go on, the harder the opposition’s demands will get,” he said. Oil Prices The escalating conflict has led to concern of disruption to oil shipments through the Suez Canal, sending North Sea Brent above $100 a barrel for the first time since October 2008. Brent crude was at $101.52 a barrel, down 24 cents, on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London at 9:51 a.m. in London. The March contract gained as much as 66 cents to $91.20 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. One key is the Egyptian military, which is one of the most respected institutions in Egypt and Mubarak’s original power base. The U.S. has connections there through more than three decades of assistance, including weapons sales and training of more than 500 Egyptian military officers per year in the U.S. Mubarak appointed three military officers in a Cabinet reshuffle over the weekend. In addition to Suleiman, a former army officer and intelligence chief, Mubarak named Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik, a former Air Force commander, and Deputy Prime Minister Mohammed Hussein Tantawi, an army field marshal and also defense minister. Egypt’s Army Publicly and privately, the U.S. has been communicating with the Egyptian armed forces. Obama made a point of complimenting their “professionalism and patriotism” in responding to Mubarak’s Feb. 1 announcement that he would not seek re-election. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton yesterday called for the army to protect anti-Mubarak demonstrators. ‘The administration has adopted a policy that can only be described as bold -- and risky,” Robert Satloff, executive director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, wrote in an e-mailed analysis. “At its core is a reliance on the Egyptian military to perform its national duty and remove Mubarak from power.” Vice President Joe Biden phoned Suleiman yesterday to urge that “credible, inclusive negotiations begin immediately” for a transition to “a democratic government,” the White House said in a statement. Clinton added public pressure, urging the Egyptian government “to begin immediately serious negotiations on a peaceful and orderly transition.” The U.S. is anticipating larger protests and an escalation of violence in Egypt today, when the Muslim Sabbath draws large numbers of people to mosques and onto the streets. “We’re bracing for a significant increase in the number of demonstrators on the streets,” State Department Spokesman Philip J. Crowley told reporters in Washington. There is the “real prospect of a real confrontation,” he said.
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