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Opinions/Editorials Title: Iran Commemorates Its (Expanding) Revolution 33 years after delivering a major blow to the post-WWII western political infrastructure in the Middle East, by uprooting a well-entrenched US-backed monarchy, the leaders of Islamic Republic of Iran are naturally elated that Egypt is in the grips of a similar people's revolution that, if successful, can cause profound transformations not only inside Egypt but also the wider region. Indeed, "political realignment" is the catchword that comes immediately to mind when one ponders the potential (geo) political implications of a regime change in Egypt, not to mention the on-going ripple effects of a new Arab awakening elsewhere in the Arab world, triggering the thoughts of a revised pan-Arabism the main focus of which would be democratic alliance among progressive, and independent, Arab states charting their own destiny, a far cry from the "Middle East subordinate system" dominating the region since the onset of the cold war; today's 'delayed' unhinging of the Arab world from the cold war calculus, old and new, and the re-mapping of the path for state-making along democratic and nationalist lines, may be west's nightmare but in reality the region's giant leap forward in parallel with the outlines of a "new world order" that gripped the western discourse after the collapse of the Berlin wall in 1989 and, yet somehow, never reached the shores of the Middle East -- until now. The Egyptian revolution-in-making is needless to say fraught with enormous challenges including the discovery of a viable and united leadership to fill the vacuum of leadership in a post-Mubarak polity, nevertheless it is already amply obvious that 'business as usual' with a compliant, and relatively passive, Egypt bribed into submission by foreign aid and the like is now over and there is a new reality on the ground that will inevitably generate a growing attrition of western influence in the Middle East. Already, Tehran has been openly predicting the dawn of a "new and confident Muslim Middle East," a discourse harboring tinges of pan-Islamism. Of course, it is perfectly possible that in the emerging new Middle East, the upper hands may belong to the secularist forces who envision western-style pluralistic systems replacing their archaic, and corrupt, authoritarian systems. This points at the 'double effect' of the current Middle East turmoil, the fact that while Iran may have served as a reference society for the rising populations wishing their dictators away with bare hands, on the other hand, Iran is not entirely immune from the upsurge of democratic sentiments gripping the region, reflected in the hasty efforts of rulers in various Arab countries including Jordan and Yemen to take concrete steps toward democratization. As explicitly hoped for by some of Iran's leading dissidents, the winds of democracy hovering over the Arab world today are bound to penetrate Iran sooner or later. Meanwhile, the mere coincidence of Iran's commemoration of its historic revolution with the tumultuous events in Egypt promising a sudden transformation of political landscape in the Arab world's pivot in turn lends itself to the added optimism of Iran's leadership that their long-standing utopia of a Middle East free from western domination zone has been realistic and not a tissue of political fantasy. A delicate point often bypassed by political commentaries often depicting a manichean image of inter-state relations in contemporary Middle East, Iran's relations with a new Egypt would not need to start from the scratch, as already some pillars of cooperation, such as on nuclear proliferation and regional cooperation, are already in place, in light of Iran-Egypt close meetings of mind at various conference, e.g., the Non-aligned summits, NPT review conferences, D-8 and G-15 groupings. As a result, instead of a wholesale change in Iran-Egypt ties, we are likely to witness only incremental, albeit significant, improvements, above all the restoration of diplomatic ties. Needless to say, much depends on the nature and composition of political forces shaping a post-Mubarak Egyptian government, but assuming that El Baradei would be at the helms of a transitional government, given his mixed record vis-a-vis Iran while he was at the IAEA, it is far-fetched to anticipate an Egyptian-Iranian realignment under his watch. May be that would be more of a possibility when and if an Islamist majority comes to power through open elections, but then again the prospects of Egypt's continued dependence on foreign economic aid, presently exacerbated due to the economic paralyis gripping the entire nation, will likely put a partial break on such a prospect. Still, irrespective of all the anticipatory limitations of a regional realignment alluded to above, the basic fact of a signficant rupture in the US-Israeli design of a "new Middle East" that would be tantamount to a pro-west status quo has now been thrown to the dustbin of history and, instead, we are witnessing the outlines of a brave new era in Middle East history that confirms the audacity of popular revolutions to continue the hitherto unfinished project of independence and progress that has time and again set back by the impositions of neo-colonialism, Zionism, and internal strife. A joyous moment for the downtrodden masses throughout the Middle East and the larger Muslim world, this year's celebration of the Islamic Revolution simply means that it can be interpreted anew as not merely an Iranian phenomenon but rather as the progenitor of a wider historic transformation.
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