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Title: Exclusive: US Empire Will Fall Due To Lack Of Faith, Not Finances Or War, Author Warns
Source: RawStory
URL Source: http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/01/ ... g-washington-author-tells-raw/
Published: Jan 27, 2011
Author: Nathan Diebenow
Post Date: 2011-01-27 12:55:52 by Brian S
Keywords: None
Views: 126629
Comments: 176

As many in the American empire longingly talk of "recovery" from the most devastating economic condition since the Great Depression, others have begun thinking in a very different direction, urging fellow citizens to prepare for the worst.

Dmitry Orlov, author of "Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects," is one of the latter.

Soon, he told Raw Story in an exclusive interview, Americans will "stop expecting anything of Washington," turning the US into more of a "banana republic" than a super power.

Orlov, who witnessed the Soviet Union's collapse from within, lamented that the American empire's condition is so severe there is "absolutely nothing" most can do to keep it alive or hasten its demise.

"Basically the people in this country are powerless," he suggested. "So they should probably focus on things closer to home."

Orlov, born in born in Leningrad (now known as Saint Petersburg), moved to the United States at age 12 and became an engineer. In his book, he detailed his experiences with the Soviet collapse on numerous visits to Russia in the late 1980s, early 1990s. He covered similarities between the two superpowers in their twilight and suggested ways for Americans to adapt to their new post-empire environment.

Amid horrid unemployment and a national deficit soaring past World War II levels, Orlov theorized that the US empire would eventually collapse -- not from finances or war, but from a lack of faith in the system.

It would happen over three overlapping stages, he said: financial, political and commercial.

"We're fairly far along in the financial collapse trajectory while political collapse has now really only started with the last election," he said.

By the next election cycle, Orlov figured, the United States would be in the throes of a "banana republic" such that the voters would exchange one inept political party for another inept political party while expecting different results.

While nothing constructive would result from this behavior, he said, the next meaningless shift in 2012 may be the last straw.

"That will run its course where people walk away in disgust and stop expecting anything of Washington," he said.

Environmental and social catastrophe

dmitryorlov Exclusive: US empire will fall due to lack of faith, not finances or war, author warnsAs the financial collapse runs its course, Orlov said, people can expect some imports to be cut off. Energy, above all cheap oil, will be the most important import to dry up. Transportation fuels will also become scarce, bringing on the next stage of social collapse: the commercial sphere, he noted.

"People will lose access to various products that they need," Orlov said.

Much has already collapsed in the commercial sphere. Vacant strip malls and deserted grocery stores clutter the landscape in many parts of the country.

"You also have people whose only source of food is food stamps," he said. "That's becoming predominant in a lot of communities."

But let's not fail to mention an overemphasis on military expenditures and unused industrial areas, Orlov insisted, describing them as mis-investments made by both empires.

"To this day, the former Soviet Union is littered with abandoned or semi-abandoned industrial sites just as the United States is," he noted.

By Orlov's estimation, the US military will never voluntarily quit being the world's largest oil consumer and largest polluter. Moreover, any plans suggested to the military to end its oil dependency in 30 years are an act of "desperation," he said.

"They have set their hair on fire and are running around in circles. That's their drill right now," Orlov quipped.

But what really seemed to rock the Soviet empire to its foundations, Orlov explained, was devastation of Russia's physical environment as a result of industrialization. The prime example was the nuclear reactor accident in Chernobyl in 1986. To this day, the site continues to produce very high levels of childhood leukemia, cancers and other diseases.

"[The Chernobyl accident] caused a great number of people, including people in some positions of authority, especially in the scientific community in Russia, to seriously mistrust the government, and [they] started doing their own research, making their own observations that disquieted them even more," Orlov explained.

Former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev's "glasnost" policy allowed enough truth out to undermine the remaining Soviet authority to the point where those who operated the system lost interest in perpetuating it, Orlov said.

While likening the Chernobyl disaster to the Deepwater Horizon accident in the Gulf of Mexico on his blog, Orlov said that he expects no hearts of American leaders to bleed over their destroyed environment any time soon.

"I don't see the elite in the United States at quite that level of desperation quite yet -- probably because they are a little bit less attuned to what's going on," he said. "They are a little bit more sheltered from the public at large. But that might change." (1 image)

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 117.

#1. To: Brian S, go65, lucysmom (#0)

By the next election cycle, Orlov figured, the United States would be in the throes of a "banana republic" such that the voters would exchange one inept political party for another inept political party while expecting different results.

The USA is already a "banana republic" in one regard, the wealth distribution disparity is much or greater than it was in Latin America back when they were all dictatorships.

http://www.businessinsider.com/its-official-in-terms-of-income-inequality- america-is-now-a-banana-republic-2010-11

IT'S OFFICIAL: America Is Now A Banana Republic

One of the hallmarks of banana republics, says the NYT's Nicholas Kristof, is income inequality.

In some countries, the wealthiest 1% of the population takes home 20% or more of the national income.

And now the same is true in America:

The richest 1 percent of Americans now take home almost 24 percent of income, up from almost 9 percent in 1976. As Timothy Noah of Slate noted in an excellent series on inequality, the United States now arguably has a more unequal distribution of wealth than traditional banana republics like Nicaragua, Venezuela and Guyana.

C.E.O.’s of the largest American companies earned an average of 42 times as much as the average worker in 1980, but 531 times as much in 2001. Perhaps the most astounding statistic is this: From 1980 to 2005, more than four-fifths of the total increase in American incomes went to the richest 1 percent.

-------------

LOL, the tea bagging peasants were cool with getting the crumbs of the remaining 1/5th of the wealth because they were living large on credit cards. Now that's over too. Maybe in 2012 the tea baggers will wake up and realize they were snookered by the GOP ideology of trickle down?

Godwinson  posted on  2011-01-27   13:05:00 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: Godwinson (#1) (Edited)

distribution of wealth

And the historical solution that the leftists always employ is to make every equally poor, except of course for the party apparatchiks who get to control everything.

jwpegler  posted on  2011-01-27   14:09:56 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: jwpegler (#2)

And the historical solution that the leftists always employ is to make every equally poor, except of course for the party apparatchiks who get to control everything.

Good, that's just what your masters want you to think.

lucysmom  posted on  2011-01-27   14:45:14 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#10. To: lucysmom (#6) (Edited)

Good, that's just what your masters want you to think.

Joseph Stalin, Nicolae Ceauescu, Mao Zedong, Fidel Castro, Pol Pot, and countless others... History is very clear on this. Very clear.

jwpegler  posted on  2011-01-27   16:26:00 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#13. To: jwpegler, lucysmom, Ibluafartsky (#10)

Joseph Stalin, Nicolae Ceauescu, Mao Zedong, Fidel Castro, Pol Pot, and countless others... History is very clear on this. Very clear.

America's wealth disparity makes America very USSR like since all the power and wealth resides in the top 1%.

Godwinson  posted on  2011-01-27   23:12:20 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#15. To: Godwinson (#13)

America's wealth disparity makes America very USSR like since all the power and wealth resides in the top 1%.

If you think you are not getting your fair share, educate yourself and make yourself more marketable to employers. Everyone else can do the same. Government has no place in assigning wealth quotas.

Rudgear  posted on  2011-01-27   23:20:42 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#18. To: Rudgear (#15)

If you think you are not getting your fair share, educate yourself and make yourself more marketable to employers. Everyone else can do the same. Government has no place in assigning wealth quotas.

Employers???? C.E.O.’s of the largest American companies earned an average of 42 times as much as the average worker in 1980, but 531 times as much in 2001.

That's a rip off and with the use of the threat of off shoring the American employee is forced to shut up and take what ever crumbs are offered or else.

No wonder Americans live in stress and fear and you get workplace massacres - a record of them happened under Bush.

Godwinson  posted on  2011-01-27   23:37:49 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#22. To: Godwinson (#18)

That's a rip off and with the use of the threat of off shoring the American employee is forced to shut up and take what ever crumbs are offered or else.

Barry's had more than two years to address the problem. Done nothing. Zip. Zilch. Nada.

Rudgear  posted on  2011-01-28   0:02:30 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#33. To: Rudgear, go65 (#22) (Edited)

That's a rip off and with the use of the threat of off shoring the American employee is forced to shut up and take what ever crumbs are offered or else.

Barry's had more than two years to address the problem. Done nothing. Zip. Zilch. Nada.

I don't support many of President Obama's policies but it seems to me in your reply you agree with me that the 1% that owns 99% of the wealth uses fear and intimidation against American workers via threats of offshoring, etc. and it is not a case that Americans of the 99% class are lazy and don't deserve to have a greater share of the wealth.

Now that it seems you acknowledge this as a problem we need to apply a solution - your solution is to do more of the same policies that got the rich more of the wealth from the rest of the 99% of the population in the hopes that it will eventually trickle down. That clearly did not happen and won't happen.

The other way is to tax the rich at higher levels and re-invest in sustainable American jobs.

There is a third option and that is for the 99% of the American population to use their 2nd amendment rights and take back the wealth from the 1% of the population who who stole it from them.

There is tyranny of govt of course but you water carriers for the oligarchs masquerading as "conservatives" forget that there is also tyranny of the rich on the poor.

Godwinson  posted on  2011-01-28   0:42:16 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#35. To: Godwinson (#33)

Solutions include getting rid of the Federal Reserve, securing the border with Mexico, simplifying the tax code, taking government out of education and turning back to the states. That's how much of a water carrier of oligarchs I am. You don't know me. You lash out because you keep getting your head handed to you,

Rudgear  posted on  2011-01-28   0:50:41 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#39. To: Rudgear, go65 (#35)

Solutions include getting rid of the Federal Reserve, securing the border with Mexico, simplifying the tax code, taking government out of education and turning back to the states. That's how much of a water carrier of oligarchs I am. You don't know me. You lash out because you keep getting your head handed to you,

Your solutions are fanatsy right wing kookery. I know of no nation of the industrialized world (including ones that are doing well like Germany) that does not have a central bank of some sort.

I know of no nation on earth that is ahead of the USA in educational reulst who has a decentralized education system. In places where t he govt i snot involved in education you can find them in Pakistan and Somalia.

I don't see how states rights will make America's wealth gap better. Last time we had issue of states rights we had a slave owning aristocracy.

I am all for controlling immigration and I am against NAFTA so we can agree on that but Mexican immigration was a result of business owners who want no govt oversight - right? - wanting cheaper unregulated labor.

So now that I destroyed your talking points I see you still have not refuted and in fact are still in agreement that the wealth gap is not good and in fact hurting America. That's actually a big deal because Republican politicians have been on record calling Americans lazy.

Godwinson  posted on  2011-01-28   1:12:33 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#42. To: Godwinson (#39) (Edited)

We did quite well for over a 130 years without a central bank.

Let the parameters of education be tested in 50 different states. The single imposed indoctrination of the left has produced one generation of illiterate fools after another for the last 50 years.

Mexico is getting rid of it's undesirables by sending them north and pumping up their economy at our expense while doing so. This isn't an immigration policy; its an invasion of a hostile foreign army.

You haven't refuted anything. As for politicians and laziness, Democrats and Rino's both pay able-bodied people to sit on their asses and feel sorry for themselves over the past instead of telling them to prepare for their future. Trouble is, most welfare types don't want a future you have to work for. They want a free ride.

Rudgear  posted on  2011-01-28   1:20:37 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#45. To: Rudgear, go65 (#42)

We did quite well for over a 130 years without a central bank.

LOL! It is clear to me for some time now that the right wingers engage in "truthiness" which is a "truth" that a person claims to know intuitively "from the gut" without regard to evidence, logic, intellectual examination, or facts.

That is why you say stuff like "We did quite well for over a 130 years without a central bank" - a truthiness assumption - and not know of these episodes in American history:

Panic / Depression of 1819

Panic / Depression of 1837 The end of the Second Bank of the United States had produced a period of runaway inflation, but in May 10, 1837 in New York City, when every bank began to accept payment only in specie (gold and silver coinage), forcing a dramatic, deflationary backlash. The Panic was followed by a five-year depression, with the failure of banks and then-record-high unemployment levels.

Panic of 1873 aka Long Depression aka Great Depression of 1873–79

Panic / Depression of 1893 (Until the Great Depression, the Panic of '93 was considered the worst depression the United States had ever experienced.)

Panic / Depression of 1896

Panic / Depression of 1907

Panic / Depression of 1910–1911

Great Depression 1929

Godwinson  posted on  2011-01-28   1:35:20 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#102. To: Godwinson (#45) (Edited)

these episodes in American history

The greatest economic down turns in American history occurred after the Federal Reserve was created, including the The Depression of 1920–21, The Great Depression, the inflationary recession (which Keynesians said was impossible) of the Carter years, and the current Great Recession. The Federal Reserve was responsible for them all.

Most of the economic downturns of the 19th century were caused by poor monetary policy as well.

The Depression of 1819 was caused by government expansionist monetary policies to fund the war of 1812. Which the U.S. central bank later over-corrected by severely contracting the money supply.

The panic of 1873 occurred due to a worldwide fall in the demand for silver started when Germany abandoned silver in favor of gold. The U.S. had a dual metals standard with a fixed exchange rate between silver and gold. Fixed exchange rates don't work because they don't account for variability in the supply of each each commodity. More silver was being mined than gold so people start hoarding gold while using silver for transactions. Most of the silver was being mined in the U.S. The drop in demand for silver forced the U.S. to pass the Coinage Act of 1873 which got rid of the dual metal standard in favor of a gold standard. The act further depressed silver prices and reduced the supply of money in the U.S. (because silver was no longer money) and caused interest a sharp increase in interest rates.

The Depression of 1893 was also caused by poor monetary policy, namely the Sherman Silver Act of 1990.

The bottom line is that lousy government monetary policies have been the cause of most economic downturns.

jwpegler  posted on  2011-01-29   10:19:38 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#117. To: jwpegler (#102)

The greatest economic down turns in American history occurred after the Federal Reserve was created, including the The Depression of 1920–21, The Great Depression, the inflationary recession (which Keynesians said was impossible) of the Carter years, and the current Great Recession. The Federal Reserve was responsible for them all.

You can see from the list that is not true - what may have eased the other economic downturns was the availability of free land we killed the Indians for.

After the frontier lands were all claimed up it is no surprise that the Great Depression lingered for so long without the availability of free land to mitigate the crisis for the American people.

There is no industrialized nation on earth that does not have a central bank of some sort. You may not like the Fed - and I don't either - but if your arguing the USA should have no sort of federal banking structure then that is economic kook talk akin to wanting dollars backed by gold again.

Godwinson  posted on  2011-01-29   14:31:44 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


Replies to Comment # 117.

#141. To: Godwinson (#117)

You can see from the list that is not true - what may have eased the other economic downturns was the availability of free land we killed the Indians for.

You can't even get THAT right! Have you ever been right about anything?

After swapping massacres with the British,they PAID my people to leave eastern NC in the early 1700's.

I bet the next thing you come up with is the white man is responsible for slavery.

sneakypete  posted on  2011-01-30 00:19:54 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


End Trace Mode for Comment # 117.

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