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Title: 10 Global Warming Doomsday Predictions
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URL Source: http://rightwingnews.com/2009/12/10 ... -warming-doomsday-predictions/
Published: Dec 20, 2010
Author: John Hawkins
Post Date: 2010-12-20 16:55:22 by no gnu taxes
Keywords: None
Views: 19367
Comments: 34
Have you ever seen one of those wild-eyed people with a sandwich board around his neck standing on the corner, screeching incoherently about how the end of the world is coming? Now, what if those people were insisting that you were really the crazy one? What if the newspapers agreed with them and the politicians wanted to pass taxes and spend hundreds of billions to implement their ideas? Sound too unbelievable to be true? Well, guess what? It's happening. Global warming alarmists are regularly prophesying about doomsday scenarios -- except they're doing it in newspapers and from the stages of swanky resorts where they've flown in their private jets. Unlike the old school soothsayers, the Al Gore's of the world have figured out how to turn doom-mongering into a multi-billion dollar industry. As you read these global warming predictions, visions, prophecies, fantasies, whatever you want to call them, ask yourself a question: if this is based on science, why do we have these huge differences in scenarios and dates? It's almost as if these people are all just pulling numbers out of their hats and putting them out there instead of basing their projections on any sort of real scientific evidence. 1) At the first Earth Day celebration, in 1969, environmentalist Nigel Calder warned, “The threat of a new ice age must now stand alongside nuclear war as a likely source of wholesale death and misery for mankind.” 2) The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age. -- Kenneth Watt, Ecologist 3) A high-priority government report warns of climate change that will lead to floods and starvation. ‘Leading climatologists’ speak of a ‘detrimental global climatic change,’ threatening ‘the stability of most nations.’ The scenario is eerily familiar although the document — never made public before — dates from 1974. But here’s the difference: it was written to respond to the threat of global cooling, not warming. And yes, it even mentions a ‘consensus’ among scientists. -- Maurizio Morabito Whoops! Those were all about global cooling, not global warming. My mistake. You see, that was the fashionable doomsday story for alarmists to go on about back in the early seventies and it essentially worked the same way. Mankind is causing the earth to cool and scientists agree we're all going to die! Now, it's mankind is causing earth to warm and scientists agree we're all going to die! See? It's very easy to get those two confused. Now, back to your regularly scheduled doomsday prophecies: 4) According to His Royal Highness the Prince of Wales, we only have 96 months left to save the planet. I'm impressed. 96 months. Not 95. Not 97. July 2017. Put it in your diary. Usually the warm-mongers stick to the same old drone that we only have 10 years left to save the planet. Nice round number. Former Vice President Al Gore said we only have 10 years left 3 1/2 years ago, which makes him technically more of a pessimist than the Prince of Wales. Al's betting Armageddon kicks in January 2016 -- unless he's just peddling glib generalities. -- Mark Steyn 5) ABC Science Show presenter Robyn Williams panics about global warming: Andrew Bolt: I ask you, Robyn, 100 metres [of sea level rises] in the next century...do you really think that? Robyn Williams: It is possible, yes. It is possible, no, actually. Now Glaciologist Nikolai Osokin of the Russian Academy of Science reassures Williams about global warming: If all ice on the earth melted, the level of the oceans would rise by 64 meters. Many coastal cities would be under water, and so would the Netherlands, a significant part of which lies below sea level. However, the Dutch and the rest of the planet may rest assured: this hypothetical catastrophe could not take place anytime within the next thousand years 6) The UK faces a "catastrophe" of floods, droughts and killer heatwaves if world leaders fail to agree to a deal on climate change, the prime minister has warned. Gordon Brown said negotiators had 50 days to save the world from global warming and break the "impasse." He told the Major Economies Forum in London, which brings together 17 of the world's biggest greenhouse gas-emitting countries, there was "no plan B". -- October 19, 2009 7) Meanwhile, the Director of the Goddard Institute, James Hansen, recently sent a letter to President Obama saying that Obama has “only four years left to save the earth” from “runaway warming.” He told the London Observer in February that “The trains carrying coal to power plants are death trains. Coal-fired power plants are factories of death.” Hansen maintains that recent warming has pushed the planet close to a “tipping point” for runaway warming. What recent warming? Three hundredths of a degree C over 30 years, with temperatures still declining, doesn’t seem worth ruining the world’s economies. -- April 20, 2009 8) While doing research 12 or 13 years ago, I met (James) Hansen, the scientist who in 1988 predicted the greenhouse effect before Congress. I went over to the window with him and looked out on Broadway in New York City and said, “If what you’re saying about the greenhouse effect is true, is anything going to look different down there in 20 years?” He looked for a while and was quiet and didn’t say anything for a couple seconds. Then he said, “Well, there will be more traffic.” I, of course, didn’t think he heard the question right. Then he explained, “The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won’t be there. The trees in the median strip will change.” Then he said, “There will be more police cars.” Why? “Well, you know what happens to crime when the heat goes up.” And so far, over the last 10 years, we’ve had 10 of the hottest years on record. Didn’t he also say that restaurants would have signs in their windows that read, “Water by request only.” Under the greenhouse effect, extreme weather increases. Depending on where you are in terms of the hydrological cycle, you get more of whatever you’re prone to get. New York can get droughts, the droughts can get more severe and you’ll have signs in restaurants saying “Water by request only.” When did he say this will happen? Within 20 or 30 years. And remember we had this conversation in 1988 or 1989. -- Author Rob Reiss talks with Salon's Suzy Hansen 9) A record loss of sea ice in the Arctic this summer has convinced scientists that the northern hemisphere may have crossed a critical threshold beyond which the climate may never recover. Scientists fear that the Arctic has now entered an irreversible phase of warming which will accelerate the loss of the polar sea ice that has helped to keep the climate stable for thousands of years. They believe global warming is melting Arctic ice so rapidly that the region is beginning to absorb more heat from the sun, causing the ice to melt still further and so reinforcing a vicious cycle of melting and heating. The greatest fear is that the Arctic has reached a "tipping point" beyond which nothing can reverse the continual loss of sea ice and with it the massive land glaciers of Greenland, which will raise sea levels dramatically. -- Friday, 16 September 2005 10) According to July 5, 1989, article in the Miami Herald, the then-director of the New York office of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), Noel Brown, warned of a “10-year window of opportunity to solve” global warming. According to the 1989 article, “A senior U.N. environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000. Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of ‘eco-refugees,’ threatening political chaos.” So, wait a second: are we in the middle of an ice age or is the globe afire? Are we passing the point of no return now, is it happening in 2017, did it happen in 2005, or was the UN right that it happened in 1999? Why is there a difference? How did they come up with these numbers in the first place? Do the global warming alarmists, some of whom used to be global cooling alarmists, understand why they were wrong before? Maybe a little less uncritical acceptance of what these people are saying and a lot more skepticism might be in order at this point.
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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 32.
#1. To: no gnu taxes (#0)
if you are going to use the "some folks predicted terrible things that never occurred, therefore all predictions are wrong" line of idiocy then how about we start discussing all those predictions of the cost of going to war in Iraq as justification to dismiss any Republican claim about anything related to foreign policy. Agreed?
Hmmm.... are you referring to the entire global The cooling scam was in the 70's. The "population bomb" was in the 60's. Now we have the global warming scam, which has already been proven to be non-existent, at least with regard to human-influenced warming or cooling... The following chart is simple enough, for even a fool like you to comprehend:
Yes, that chart is entirely accurate. Water vapor is indeed the largest greenhouse gas. But...... http://www.skepticalscience.com/water-vapor-greenhouse-gas-intermediate.htm
But...... Nothing. There IS no "but" about this. But thanks for playing.
If you want to ignore the impact that CO2 has on water vapor, be my guest. But again, ignoring things you don't like doesn't make them any less true.
The effect is minute. But thanks for playing!
No, it's not. http://www.skepticalscience.com/water-vapor-greenhouse-gas.htm
Hey, bubba..... ***PSSSSSSST.*** Your scam is OVER. Wishful thinking on your part, will change this not at all. Ignoring all the information I've posted, which proves it's a scam, will not make those facts go away, much as you try to hide your eyes from reality. LOL.
Only when it starts cooling. Meanwhile, you offer no explanation for observable warming global average temperatures. When you can explain WHY it is warming, let me know.
Hey, dumbshit... You looked out your WINDOW lately? How fucking stupid ARE you???????????? ((((oh, that's right... you're a socialist, which means you're a fucking MORON.))))
#33. To: Capitalist Eric (#32)
My window only shows me the area around my home, not global temperatures. Perhaps your window is better than mine?
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#2. To: go65 (#1)
if you are going to use the "some folks predicted terrible things that never occurred, therefore all predictions are wrong" line of idiocy
cooling warming scam? 
#5. To: Capitalist Eric (#2)
Water vapour is the most dominant greenhouse gas. The greenhouse effect or radiative flux for water is around 75 W/m2 while carbon dioxide contributes 32 W/m2 (Kiehl 1997). These proportions are confirmed by measurements of infrared radiation returning to the Earth's surface (Evans 2006). Water vapour is also the dominant positive feedback in our climate system and a major reason why temperature is so sensitive to changes in CO2.
Unlike external forcings such as CO2 which can be added to the atmosphere, the level of water vapour in the atmosphere is a function of temperature. Water vapour is brought into the atmosphere via evaporation - the rate depends on the temperature of the ocean and air, being governed by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. If extra water is added to the atmosphere, it condenses and falls as rain or snow within a week or two. Similarly, if somehow moisture was sucked out of the atmosphere, evaporation would restore water vapour levels to 'normal levels' in short time.
Water Vapour as a positive feedback
As water vapour is directly related to temperature, it's also a positive feedback - in fact, the largest positive feedback in the climate system (Soden 2005). As temperature rises, evaporation increases and more water vapour accumulates in the atmosphere. As a greenhouse gas, the water absorbs more heat, further warming the air and causing more evaporation. When CO2 is added to the atmosphere, as a greenhouse gas it has a warming effect. This causes more water to evaporate and warm the air to a higher, stabilized level. So the warming from CO2 has an amplified effect.
How much does water vapour amplify CO2 warming? Without any feedbacks, a doubling of CO2 would warm the globe around 1°C. Taken on its own, water vapour feedback roughly doubles the amount of CO2 warming. When other feedbacks are included (eg - loss of albedo due to melting ice), the total warming from a doubling of CO2 is around 3°C (Held 2000).
Empirical observations of water vapour feedback and climate sensitivity The amplifying effect of water vapor has been observed in the global cooling after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo (Soden 2001). The cooling led to atmospheric drying which amplified the temperature drop. A climate sensitivity of around 3°C is also confirmed by numerous empirical studies examining how climate has responded to various forcings in the past (Knutti & Hegerl 2008).
Satellites have observed an increase in atmospheric water vapour by about 0.41 kg/m² per decade since 1988. A detection and attribution study, otherwise known as "fingerprinting", was employed to identify the cause of the rising water vapour levels (Santer 2007). Fingerprinting involves rigorous statistical tests of the different possible explanations for a change in some property of the climate system. Results from 22 different climate models (virtually all of the world's major climate models) were pooled and found the recent increase in moisture content over the bulk of the world's oceans is not due to solar forcing or gradual recovery from the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo. The primary driver of 'atmospheric moistening' was found to be the increase in CO2 caused by the burning of fossil fuels.
Theory, observations and climate models all show the increase in water vapor is around 6 to 7.5% per degree Celsius warming of the lower atmosphere. The observed changes in temperature, moisture, and atmospheric circulation fit together in an internally and physically consistent way. When skeptics cite water vapour as the most dominant greenhouse gas, they are actually invoking the positive feedback that makes our climate so sensitive to CO2 as well as another line of evidence for anthropogenic global warming.
#15. To: go65 (#5)
Yes, that chart is entirely accurate. Water vapor is indeed the largest greenhouse gas.
#17. To: Capitalist Eric (#15)
There IS no "but" about this.
#18. To: go65 (#17)
#19. To: Capitalist Eric (#18)
The effect is minute.
#30. To: go65 (#19)
#31. To: Capitalist Eric (#30)
Your scam is OVER.
#32. To: go65 (#31)
Only when it starts cooling.
Replies to Comment # 32. You looked out your WINDOW lately?
End Trace Mode for Comment # 32.
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