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Title: Palin's Republican Problem
Source:
PPP
URL Source: http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot ... palins-republican-problem.html
Published: Dec 9, 2010
Author: PPP
Post Date: 2010-12-09 09:57:11 by go65
Keywords: None
Views: 1979
Comments: 5
It's well documented that Sarah Palin has problems with Democrats and independents, but the first seven states where we've looked at the 2012 Presidential election make it clear that she has a Republican problem as well. It's not that Republicans don't like her- on our last national poll 68% rated her favorably, making her easily the most popular prospective 2012 candidate with Mike Huckabee at 63%, Newt Gingrich at 57%, and Mitt Romney at 56%. It's that a lot of the Republicans who don't like her- in contrast to the Republicans who don't like Huckabee, Gingrich, or Romney- aren't willing to hold their nose and vote for her in the general election. Across the 7 individual states where we've done 2012 polls so far- Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Montana, and Virginia- Palin averages receiving 77% of the Republican vote against Barack Obama. That puts her slightly behind Gingrich at 80% and well behind Romney and Huckabee at 84%. Palin does the worst of the Republicans among Republicans in Montana, Missouri, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Minnesota. Only North Carolina where she does better than Romney and Virginia where she does better than Gingrich and Romney serve as exceptions to the rule. Republicans may hate Barack Obama but there look to be a pretty meaningful percentage of them who don't hate him enough to vote to put Sarah Palin in the White House. When you combine that with her complete lack of appeal to Democrats and independents she looks virtually unelectable for 2012.
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#1. To: go65 (#0)
If unemployment is still above 8% in 2012 (let alone 9.8%), any GOP candidate will beat Barack Obama. Remember, no one thought that Reagan could win in 1980 either. Carter's inflation, interests rates, and Iranian hostage crisis made it very easy for Reagan to beat him. That was with a Republican third party challenger (John Anderson), and the Libertarian Candidate (Ed Clark) doing far better than any LP candidate has ever done (almost a million votes). Palin could go into Iowa, a dynamic woman running against 7 or 8 boring men and win the caucus with 30% of the vote. She'll come in third or forth in New Hampshire. Then it's on to South Carolina, where she will clean up with Nikki Haley's help. That will give her huge momentum.
Todd Palin would make a great president.
Long live the Taliban Freedom Fighters!
that depends on the trend, and who the GOP runs. We just saw that when the GOP runs nutty candidates, they can't even beat Harry Reid.
That depends on her organizational ability, Iowa is far more about organizational skill and GOTV then it is about personal popularity. She also can't hide behind fox news in Iowa, she'll have to get out, meet with people, and talk issues, where she'll expose herself as a fool. She will struggle in NH as well, meaning he path to the nomination requires her to win in SC in convincing fashion, yet there she'll face Gingrich, Huckabee, and perhaps Thune in a battle for the Conservative vote.
What a load of overly dramatic drivel.
Republicans may hate Barack Obama but there look to be a pretty meaningful percentage of them who don't hate him enough to vote to put Sarah Palin in the White House.
"It's very important to remember the law is not simply what powerful people would want others to believe it is." -- Julian Assange
#2. To: go65 (#0)
#3. To: jwpegler (#1)
If unemployment is still above 8% in 2012 (let alone 9.8%), any GOP candidate will beat Barack Obama.
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#4. To: jwpegler (#1)
Palin could go into Iowa, a dynamic woman running against 7 or 8 boring men and win the caucus with 30% of the vote.
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#5. To: go65 (#0)
Republicans may hate Barack Obama
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