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United States News Title: Retail Sales in U.S. Rose 1.2% in October, Most in Seven Months Retail sales in the U.S. climbed in October by the most in seven months, a sign consumers may play a bigger role in the recovery. Purchases rose 1.2 percent, exceeding the highest forecast among economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, after a 0.7 percent September increase that was larger than previously estimated, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate of 74 economists projected a 0.7 percent advance. Stock gains over the past two months and growing employment may give a boost to consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, in coming months. At the same time, an unemployment rate hovering near 10 percent is prompting merchants such as J.C. Penney Co. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. to offer promotions to attract shoppers during the holiday season. “We expect the holiday shopping season to really ramp up in November,” said Guy Lebas, chief fixed- income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia, who forecast a 1.1 percent gain. “The breadth of discounting” and steady income gains are “providing some support,” he said. Another report showed manufacturing in the New York region unexpectedly contracted in November for the first time in more than a year. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index fell to minus 11.1 from 15.7 in October. Readings less than zero signal contractions in the so-called Empire State Index, which covers New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut. Shares Rise Stock-index futures held earlier gains after the reports. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index maturing in December rose 0.4 percent to 1,199.7 at 8:53 a.m. in New York. Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from increases of 0.4 percent to 1.1 percent. The Commerce Department revised the September rise up from the 0.6 percent gain previously reported. Nine of 13 categories in today’s report showed an increase in demand, led by a 5 percent gain among auto dealers. Vehicles sold at a 12.25 million seasonally adjusted annual rate last month, the strongest performance since the government’s cash-for- clunkers program in August 2009, according to industry data released earlier this month. Excluding Autos Sales excluding automobiles advanced 0.4 percent, matching the median forecast of economists surveyed. Excluding autos, gasoline and building materials, which are the figures used to calculate gross domestic product, sales improved 0.2 percent after a 0.4 percent gain the prior month. Non-store merchants, which include Internet retailers, sporting goods and building material stores were among the other categories that showed increasing demand. The last two months of the year are typically the biggest U.S. shopping season and hiring time for retailers. The National Retail Federation has forecast November-December holiday sales will rise by 2.3 percent from a year ago, the most since 2006. J.C. Penney, the third-largest U.S. department-store company, last week said third-quarter profit rose 63 percent. Fourth-quarter sales at stores open at least a year will rise 3 to 4 percent, the Plano, Texas- based company said in a Nov. 12 statement, adding that the holiday shopping environment will “remain highly promotional.” Hurdles Remain The pace of job growth and Americans’ drive to pay down debt and boost savings may remain hurdles for retailers. Payrolls grew by 151,000 workers in October, the first gain in five months, and the unemployment rate held at 9.6 percent, the Labor Department said Nov. 5. Joblessness will average 9.3 percent in 2011, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month. Investors have driven up retailers’ shares on signs of improving demand. The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Retailing Index of 91 companies, including J.C. Penney and Macy’s Inc., gained 18 percent this year through Nov. 12, compared with a 7.5 percent increase for the broader S&P 500 gauge. The 500 Index’s 13 percent advance from September through October was the best two-month performance in more than a year. Shares rallied in anticipation of more action by the Federal Reserve to spur growth. Policy makers this month announced a plan to buy an additional $600 billion of Treasuries through June with the aim of reducing joblessness and averting a drop in prices that would hurt the recovery. President Barack Obama, whose Democratic Party this month lost control of the House of Representatives to Republicans, said last week that deflation poses a “huge danger” to the U.S. “We have to be mindful of those dangers going forward,” he told reporters in Seoul.
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#2. To: go65 (#0)
Wanna bet?
no, we both agree that things will get worse next year.
Wanna bet? no, Then why post a rah rah article? (laughing)
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