For at least a year now, it's been an open question whether the Tea Party is a force for good or ill within the GOP. On the good side of the ledger, it's served as an energizing and rebranding force, and kept up pressure on GOP leaders to hold the line against Obama and Dems, which clearly served them well. But the flip side is now coming into focus, and with the results just in from the Colorado Senate race, we can now declare that it may have cost the GOP its only shot at a 50-50 Senate. The picture is complicated, but in raw numbers this appears to be the case.
The math is pretty straightforward. Right now, after last night, the GOP has 46 seats, and is expected to add one more in Alaska, bringing the total to 47. Washington State is still outsanding, but many expect it to remain in Dem hands.
Meanwhile, Tea Party candidates cost the GOP three seats they otherwise would have won. News orgs in Colorado have now declared that Senator Michael Bennet has defeated Tea Party candidate Ken Buck. Christine O'Donnell cost the GOP the Delaware seat, which they would have won in a walk if she hadn't prevailed in a fluke primary victory. And Harry Reid was widely written off as a dead Senator walking -- until Sharron Angle's victory in her primary gave him his only opening to retain his seat.
Those three seats would have brought the GOP to 50.
Now, as Josh Marshall notes, the picture is a bit more complex than this. Beyond costing the GOP those three seats, Tea Party energy surely helped buoy other GOP Senate and other candidates to victory.
But in terms of raw numbers, the GOP's failure to gain a 50-50 Senate really does appear to vindicate the argument by the establishment GOP and the NRSC that these candidates couldn't win general elections -- an argument that earned that establishment a tremendous amount of abuse from the right.
That said, last night's results also clearly vindicate the Dem argument, too. The NRSC and establishment GOP proved unable to control the unpredictable, unpolished and extreme candidates the Tea Party foisted upon them -- which is exactly what Democrats predicted would happen.