Do I double down on my prediction? I have wrestled for two weeks over this. I could stand pat and with my six-month-old prediction of Republicans gaining 51 House seats and 5 Senate seats.
Anything more is gravy.
Right?
But I am leaning toward doubling down — even though there has been no 100-seat movement in the House in 116 years. In fact, I am pretty sure 1894 was the only such movement.
Yesterday, I posted the numbers for the last 100 years of midterm elections. History shows a 1994 is likely (President Clinton lost 54 House and 8 Senate seats).
But the difference between 1994 and 2010 is that Hillarycare did not pass. Obamacare did.
And Clinton did not floor the overspending. President Obama did.
Of course, the congressional follies — kiting checks and accepting “honoraria” (bribes) — were reason enough to kick out the bums. We have that today. Could it be that Barney Frank is this year’s Mary Rose Oakar?
Then there are the numbers. When Gallup gives Republicans a 15-point lead in the generic poll, we have reached unchartered waters.
But Pew Research’s numbers are closer to 1994. Independent numbers have swung to Republicans compared to 2006, but that may just be independents who were Republican in 2006.
Those are the polls. They tell part of the story.
Follow the pols. Obama is not campaigning on Monday. He was beaten up this weekend — playing to a largely empty hall in Cleveland on Sunday and retreating to the safety of Connecticut only to run into hecklers from his own party.
Bill Clinton was in Beckley today in a district once represented by Bob Byrd that has been Nick Joe Rahall’s since before Jimmy Carter was president. Joe Manchin’s strategy is now to gin up the vote in the coalfields.
Democrats definitely have their donkey tails between their backlegs.
In the end, I won’t double-down in the House. 51 is a very respectable number. But experts say 75 is more likely based on Real Clear Politics ranging Republican gains from 45 to 89. If it is as Real Clear Politics said 45 seats for sure with 44 tossups, expect the outside party to pick up two-thirds of those toss-up seats, for a total of 75.
A few of those 22 leans Democratic seats are also going to fall to the Republicans.
Still, 51 is 20% of the Democratic House seats. Maybe the experts who said 25 six months ago are overcompensating.
As for the Senate, all 18 Republican held seats will remain Republican. Experts say Democrats will lose at least 8 of their 19 seats: Arkansas, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Nevada, North Dakota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
That leaves California, Washington state and West Virginia hanging.
Ma’am Boxer leads in California, but opposition to Prop 19 which legalizes pot may boost conservative voting and sweep her out of office.
In West Virginia, well there seems to be a flaw in the poll, as I explained earlier.
And Dino Rossi may finally win in Washington state.
Who knows?
So do I double down on my prediction? It is tempting.
And like most temptations, I should resist.
I will stick by 51 House, 5 Senate because I don’t want to raise my hopes so high that a good old-fashioned swift kick in the donkey’s hind disappoints me.
100 House seats is possible. Anything less than 51 seats is impossible. That makes me very, very happy. I refuse to let the bastards cheat me out of my long-awaited victory by raising expectations too high.
So vote!
