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United States News Title: Parties to battle over deficit cuts (Debt limit watch) After an election season marked by shrink-the-debt rallying cries, a Republican majority in the House would quickly have a chance to show whether it’s serious about cutting federal spending — so serious, it would threaten to shut down the government. House Republican leaders insist the party wouldn’t take it that far. But tell that to a crop of tea party candidates who say they’re prepared to take that dramatic step, if needed, to stick by their campaign- trail pledges to rein in government spending. The showdown could come after the next Congress convenes, when Republicans and Democrats would take up a routine Treasury request to increase the amount the federal government can borrow, known as the debt limit. It has all the makings of a classic Washington standoff: President Barack Obama would have to persuade Congress to expand the borrowing limit, or risk a government default. Republicans, who pledged fiscal restraint, say they wouldn’t go along with it unless they extract major concessions on spending. And tea party activists would expect nothing less than full-on resistance — maybe even a government shutdown — from the Republicans they propelled into office. Republicans across the country used TV ads to bash Democratic incumbents for raising the debt limit in February, from $12.4 trillion to $14.3 trillion. The debt now stands at $13.7 trillion, which means another vote will be necessary early next year, when there would be a GOP House majority if results go as expected Tuesday. Utah Republican Senate nominee Mike Lee has said that the issue is worth shutting down the government over. “It’s an inconvenience, it would be frustrating to many, many people and it’s not a great thing.” And “at the same time, it’s not something that we can rule out,” he told NPR. “It may be absolutely necessary.” In statements to POLITICO, Colorado Republican Senate nominee Ken Buck and Wisconsin Republican Senate nominee Ron Johnson both adopted no-compromise stances, as did Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “The American people have said pretty loud and clear that our debt is too high, and they are going to send people to Washington who are able to say no,” said Sarah Sendek, spokeswoman for the Johnson campaign. Tim Phillips, president of Americans for Prosperity, a tea-party-linked group that has been active in the midterm elections, said a government shutdown may be necessary. He said he has a three-point litmus test for House Republicans if they win the majority: First, they must extend the moratorium on earmarks. Second, they need to force a quick vote to repeal the new health care law, as well as make attempts to revoke federal funding for individual elements of the law. And finally, they cannot fold on the debt limit, he said. “It will be an early test for the assumed Republican majority,” Phillips said. “If they just simply, in a perfunctory way, sign off on it, it will send a disastrous message to the movement, which is expecting some fiscal discipline and guts.” Obama, on the other hand, would need to show seriousness about reining in spending without estranging his base of union and progressive activists, which railed against the White House earlier this year for proposing a three-year freeze on non-defense, discretionary spending, instead of using the government to stimulate the economy. His own reelection fight begins in earnest on Wednesday, and every proposed cut has a constituency. “Congress has never failed to increase the debt limit when necessary, and we are confident Congress will act in 2011 to ensure that the full faith and credit of the United States is protected,” said Steven Adamske, a Treasury spokesman. A no-holds-barred stance isn’t necessarily a sure winner for the GOP. Republicans certainly remember what happened during the 1995 government shutdown, when then-President Bill Clinton managed to turn the blame on the GOP. Not to mention, establishment Republicans could prove as resistant to deep budget cuts as many liberal Democrats. Still, for the GOP, a debt-limit vote would be a showcase to prove that a new Republican majority would not be the same as the old Republican majority, which voted to raise the ceiling when it was in charge. House Republicans, if they regain control from Democrats, have pledged to hold weekly votes on spending-cut bills as a way to establish credibility with voters. But if Democrats maintain control of the Senate, those bills are likely to go nowhere. That is where the debt-limit vote comes in. A higher debt ceiling is a must-have for the administration. If the ceiling isn’t raised, the government could default on its debt — a scenario that conservative economists describe as unthinkable, given the ramifications it would have on the global financial markets. Republicans still see an opportunity to leverage their position and force Democrats to swallow deep budget cuts or spending freezes in exchange for the vote on the debt limit. The issue is how far Republicans would be willing to go — and what kind of compromise would satisfy a conservative base that doesn’t just want to slow the growth in spending but force the federal budget to actually shrink over time. “A lot of conservatives will believe they have a mandate to stop the debt spree, and a dangerous vote to raise the debt limit could be justified only by putting in place procedures to stop future debt-limit increases,” said Brian Riedl, lead budget analyst for The Heritage Foundation. “I don’t see conservatives going along with business as usual on borrowing.” Ryan Hecker, a Houston lawyer who organized the tea-party-backed Contract From America, a grass- roots-driven governing manifesto, said the election is a mandate for fiscal conservatism, so the GOP needs to heed that message. “Unless there is a real signal of a major, major attempt to decrease spending, Republicans are certainly going against their word if they vote to increase the debt limit,” Hecker said. “It would be very politically problematic if Republicans just raise the debt limit without receiving something” in return. House Minority Whip Eric Cantor of Virginia, who could become the majority leader in a Republican- controlled House, said the caucus will aim to establish a credible record of spending restraint by the time the debt limit vote is scheduled. Republicans will prove they’re committed by reducing costs of running federal agencies and examining pay for federal workers, Cantor said in a conference call last week. Another complicating factor is that any package of concessions that passes muster with the GOP base will need to make it through the Senate, which is projected to remain in Democratic control. Even the softest measure — such as a freeze on discretionary spending — would face a tough hearing in the Senate, where 60 votes are needed to pass anything controversial, according to a senior Democratic aide. “I’m unconvinced that even a Republican House that was committed to a serious cap in spending over a long period of time would be able to convince a narrowly divided, but Democratic-controlled, Senate to go along with it,” said Andrew Moylan, director of government affairs for the National Taxpayers Union. “I’m unconvinced at this point, given Congress’s history on spending, that we’re going to get anything significant.”
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'Inside The Democrats' Post-Election Strategy For Congress', 'WASHINGTON -- With the enemy at the gates, and facing heavy casualties, Democrats in Congress are preparing to do what any beleaguered army does: head for the hills and leave booby-traps behind. The bigger the margin Republicans pile up next Tuesday, the less likely it is that the Democrats will be able to -- or want to -- do much when Congress reconvenes for a lame-duck session on Nov. 15. Rather, leadership aides tell me, they will want to do the minimum,...', WASHINGTON -- With the enemy at the gates, and facing heavy casualties, Democrats in Congress are preparing to do what any beleaguered army does: head for the hills and leave booby-traps behind. The bigger the margin Republicans pile up next Tuesday, the less likely it is that the Democrats will be able to -- or want to -- do much when Congress reconvenes for a lame-duck session on Nov. 15. Rather, leadership aides tell me, they will want to do the minimum, pushing the toughest decisions on taxes, spending and debt forward to a newer, presumably more Republican, 112th Congress, which will convene for the first time on Jan. 3, 2011. Come January, the new Tea Party-infused GOP then would have to quickly confront the real-world consequences of its tax-cutting, budget-cutting, debt-reducing, anti-government rhetoric. "Some of our liberals are arguing that we have to do what we can in the lame-duck if it's going to be our last chance, but that is unrealistic if the numbers next week are bad," a top Democratic aide told me. "If we lose big, we'll punt. We'll have to." Which means? For one, it means that lame-duck Democrats will pass another short "continuing resolution" to cover funding of all government programs. (The current one expires on Dec. 3.) If that happens, President Obama will not get the priorities and new programs he wanted, and Republicans will get the chance to undo them. But the GOP will have to quickly make good on their pledge to cut $100 billion in spending -- a number they have bragged about even while avoiding discussing painful, controversial specifics. Most House Democrats, under siege though they are, are against extending the Bush-era income tax cuts to families who make more than $250,000. They will try to hold that line, but if they can't, they will fight for a short-term extension for that top bracket. Again, the idea is to make the GOP, in the new Congress, focus on that one group's needs. Democrats will try to vote more money for unemployment benefits. Winning that vote -- even in the lame duck -- won't be easy. Democrats will do their best, but, again, that may mean a short-term measure. Republicans would have to return to the matter in January. The most powerful IED on the road ahead is timed to explode some time this spring. Last February, Congress raised the ceiling on the national debt from $12.4 trillion to $14.2 trillion. Since then, the debt has risen to $13.7 trillion -- which means Congress will have to raise it yet again within a few months. A failure to approve one would, technically, bar the government from borrowing more money. In other words, we would not have the cash to pay our bills. And yet Tea Party candidates and their fellow travelers in the GOP have vowed to oppose further increases in the legal debt ceiling. Are they going to stick to that idea when faced with the reality of default? Democrats will be eager to see. It may be the only fun they're going to have.
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