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Title: Election Day 2010 Live Thread
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Published: Nov 2, 2010
Author: Me
Post Date: 2010-11-02 09:21:50 by go65
Keywords: None
Views: 140257
Comments: 162
All the talking is done, today is the voting, tomorrow is the spinning. Discuss! ------- FWIW, I voted about 8 AM this morning, there was absolutely no line and I was in and out in 5 minutes. In 2008 I waited a good 20 minutes to vote.
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#28. To: go65 (#0)
Charles Cook, editor and publisher of the Cook Political Report: "The Democrats will lose 20-25 in the House; four to five in the Senate. I'm seeing softening for Democrats in key Senate races, such as Virginia. Anti -incumbency, despondency among Democratic voters and a galvanization of GOP voters are the overarching trends. Democrats are disillusioned with Clinton; Republicans hate him and will turn out in droves. The GOP vote is coming home and it's hardening earlier than usual." Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Report, a political newsletter: "The Democrats will lose 24-26 seats in the House; three to five in the Senate. They're vulnerable in the South and in traditionally Republican districts in the North that they've been able to hold in the past by splitting the Republicans. However, President Clinton's unpopularity is uniting the GOP. This isn't a particularly ideological election, though. It's just insiders versus outsiders, and Democrats are the insiders right now. Voters remain skeptical about the role of government, another negative for Democrats. Clinton has tried to alter this widespread mistrust of governmental activism, but he hasn't succeeded." Larry Sabato, professor of government at the University of Virginia: "My slogan has always been: 'He who lives by the Crystal Ball ends up eating ground glass.' Nevertheless, it looks like Democrats will be lucky to lose only 24-25 seats in the House and four in the Senate. Much of it hinges on President Clinton's popularity. Many of these elections are turning into a referendum on Bill Clinton, as is usually the case with mid-term elections and the President in power. About a half dozen Senate races will be decided with less than two percent of the vote. So last-minute trends will matter. Clinton could bounce back, as he's done in the past, and that could reduce Democratic losses. I don't think his approval rating will sink any lower than about 35 percent; that's his floor and he's close to it now. If anything, I think his popularity might rise a little bit between now and election day. When all is said and done, there's only one thing we know for sure: the Democrats will lose a lot of seats in both Houses." The other analysts' predictions cited in the piece were 25 House seats (Jack Germond), 20-25 seats (Gloria Borger), 25 seats (Cokie Roberts), and 25 seats (William Schneider). Notice a pattern? Of course that's not what happened—instead Republicans ended up shocking the world with a 54-seat gain and their first House majority in 40 years. The reason I bring this up is that the current pundit predictions, although a rough estimate, are almost as uniform as they were then in predicting GOP gains of 50-60 seats. New York Times election guru Nate Silver has a detailed piece today explaining the unusual amount of uncertainty in this election and it truly is a must-read. As many of the analysts themselves acknowledge, just because the consensus number is about 55 seats, doesn't mean that much larger or smaller gains aren't possible for Republicans. There could still be some major factor in the races that the pollsters have so far failed to detect. Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
Agreed. SIlver published two separate pieces showing why Republican gains could be much larger or much smaller than predicted.
Silver hedge his bet. Not impressed at all by THAT. Coons is panicking in Delaware, says the two biggest Dem strongholds are having anemic turnout. If the historical record of the pollsters holds up...it exceeds what I predicted. We'll see.
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
So is Cook, Sabato, etc. We'll see in a few hours. We'll see in a few hours.
8D I voted for Sheriff and most (not all) of the other local offices when I knew about the candidates. I expect Rand Paul to win by 10 points tonight here in Kentucky.
Today I noticed something I hadn't noticed in the past at the polling stations. They had yellow signs up that said no cell phones were authorized in the room, except for those working the polls. They didn't have these signs up at the entrance to the building so I suspect there was lax enforcement - I'll guess most voters were in and out in 15 minutes or less. I'm still asking myself why no cell phones in 2010 in the polls????
The war on terror is a cover for access to the hundreds of billions of barrels of oil in the Middle East." That makes the most obvious sense.
i noticed two things - a campaigner for our Republican challenger for the house offering candy at 8:15 AM to a little girl walking with her mom to the entrance. The mom looked at him with an "are you freaking crazy" look. - no "I voted" stickers this year due to county budget cuts.
Pollster's final prediction - 48 house seat gain for the GOP and an 86% chance that the Democrats retain the Senate (they have it at 48-46 with 4 undecided).
My Prediction: 70 plus House Seats go GOP. 10 Senate Seats go GOP. See you after its over. Enjoy watching our country find its voice at last.
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
i've now gotten 4 calls and one knock on my door from our Dem. Rep's campaign today. They visited our home 3 other times in the last week. Meanwhile, we got one door hanging in the same time from the Republican challenger, and this is a district that flipped to the Democrats in 2008 after 14 years of GOP control. --- EDIT - just got call #5 from the Democrats campaign.
Election night spin bingo card: first round of calls based on exit polling: Arkansas: Boozman (R) defeats Lincoln (D) Ohio: Portman (R) defeats Fisher (D) North Dakota: Hoeven (R) defeats Potter (D) Wisconsin: Johnson (R) defeats Feingold (D)
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Pence, Burton, and Rogers declared winners of House seats in Indiana and Kentucky by Politico. All Republicans. Rand Paul up by 10% with .4% of the vote in.
70 plus House Seats go GOP. 10 Senate Seats go GOP. See you after its over. Enjoy watching our country find its voice at last. 62 GOP gains in the House 8 GOP gains in the Senate
Never swear "allegiance" to anything other than the 'right to change your mind'!
PAUL WINS: The AP has called the Kentucky Senate race for Rand Paul.
Never swear "allegiance" to anything other than the 'right to change your mind'!
LUNTZ CALLS IT FOR REID: GOP polling guru Frank Luntz is predicting Republicans will win seven Senate seats and 50 House spots, based on exit polls he had seen. On a conference call with associates from K Street, Luntz also said he thinks Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will win reelection. http://www.politico.com/hp/wbarchive/whiteboard11022010.html
Never swear "allegiance" to anything other than the 'right to change your mind'!
The networks have called Sen Dan Coats (R) the winner of the Indiana Senate race; that is the first GOP pickup
Never swear "allegiance" to anything other than the 'right to change your mind'!
Luntz is frequently wrong. His "focus groups" are stacked.
Leahy declared winner in VT. First blue spot on map (D).
Hoping you are right. I want Reid the hell out of the leadership, if not the Senate.
Never swear "allegiance" to anything other than the 'right to change your mind'!
GOP strong in IN2, IN8 and IN9 - could be the first seats to go to the GOP tonight in the race for the House
Never swear "allegiance" to anything other than the 'right to change your mind'!
# House results: VA5 Robert Hurt (R) leads Rep Tom Perriello (D) 56-42%; Rep Rick Boucher (D) trails 54-43 in VA 9 4 minutes ago via TweetDeck 4% in from Florida Senate - Rubio 43%, Crist 39%, Meek 16% 6 minutes ago via TweetDeck 38% in from KY6 and Rep Ben Chandler (D) leads Andy Barr (R) 52-47; Rep John Yarmuth (D) up 52-46% in KY3 9 minutes ago via TweetDeck DEMS strong in Kentucky still, leading in both KY3 and KY6; Rand Paul (R) already declared Senate winner in KY
Never swear "allegiance" to anything other than the 'right to change your mind'!
I predict the Republicans will pick up 70 seats in the house. The Senate will be divided 51 49 either way.
In Florida, Republican Dan Webster is up big over Rep Alan Grayson (D) 63-29% with 6% of the vote in
Never swear "allegiance" to anything other than the 'right to change your mind'!
Allen West(R) is up by 10% in FL.
Nate Silver: more exit polls: Coons beats O'Donnell in Delaware
# IN8 and IN9 still trending for the GOP 1 minute ago via TweetDeck INDIANA turnaround - Rep Joe Donnelly (D) has fought back to lead by 2,000 votes with 55% in from IN2 1 minute ago via TweetDeck No Red Tide in Kentucky House races, as Dems hold KY3 (Rep Yarmuth); KY6 very close, as Rep Chandler leads 51-49 2 minutes ago via TweetDeck GOP leading in VA2 (Nye), VA5 (Perriello), VA9 (Boucher), VA11 (Connolly) 3 minutes ago via TweetDeck In FL24, Sandy Adams (R) has early lead over Rep Suzanne Kosmas (D); Alan Grayson down 57-37% in FL8 4 minutes ago via TweetDeck GA2 gives early lead to Mike Keown(R) over Rep Sanford Bishop 55-44%; Rep Jim Marshall (D) trailing in GA early 4 minutes ago via TweetDeck AP also declaring Chris Coons the winner in the Delaware Senate race 6 minutes ago via TweetDeck Networks declaring Marco Rubio (R) the winner of the Florida Senate race 6 minutes ago via TweetDeck 22% in Florida Governor's race and Rick Scott (R) leads Alex SInk (D) 51-45% 10 minutes ago via TweetDeck 44% in from VA5 as Rep Tom Perriello (D-VA) is losing 54-43%; 27% in VA9 where Rep Rick Boucher (D) trails 52-45 10 minutes ago via TweetDeck Bottom Line right now - GOP winning seats in Indiana, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina - good early signs for them
Never swear "allegiance" to anything other than the 'right to change your mind'!
538's model is up to a 57 seat gain - Boucher losing in Virginia is bad news for the Democrats, he has held that seat for something like 20 years. Mike Castle's seat in DE goes to the Democrats.
Iott (the Nazi re-enactor) loses in Ohio, despite a recent appearance by John Boehner on his behalf.
Wayyyy too early, but could Badeye's nightmare come true?
39 more for control.
Democrat John Lynch retains the NH Governor's mansion
FL-24 goes to the GOP, GOP now +1 overall.
Boozman wins AR Senate, 2nd GOP pickup.
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Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/LatestHere are excerpts from a few predictions by the major election analysts that were published in Campaigns & Elections two weeks before the 1994 midterms:
#29. To: Badeye (#28)
(Edited)
The reason I bring this up is that the current pundit predictions, although a rough estimate, are almost as uniform as they were then in predicting GOP gains of 50-60 seats. New York Times election guru Nate Silver has a detailed piece today explaining the unusual amount of uncertainty in this election and it truly is a must-read. As many of the analysts themselves acknowledge, just because the consensus number is about 55 seats, doesn't mean that much larger or smaller gains aren't possible for Republicans. There could still be some major factor in the races that the pollsters have so far failed to detect.
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#30. To: go65 (#29)
#31. To: Badeye (#30)
Silver hedge his bet. Not impressed at all by THAT.
Coons is panicking in Delaware, says the two biggest Dem strongholds are having anemic turnout.
If the historical record of the pollsters holds up...it exceeds what I predicted.
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#32. To: mcgowanjm (#10)
I'm voting only for the Sheriff. Cause he's the guy who's in charge of Foreclosures.
#33. To: mcgowanjm (#16)
REMINDER: Please bring a video camera/cell phone camera when you go to vote so you can document these problems on video tape.
#34. To: mcgowanjm (#24)
1. Saudi Arabia – 262 billion barrels 2. Iran – 133 billion barrels 3. Iraq – 112 billion barrels 4. Kuwait – 97 billion barrels
#35. To: Fred Mertz (#33)
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#36. To: Badeye (#30)
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#37. To: go65 (#36)
Pollster's final prediction - 48 house seat gain for the GOP and an 86% chance that the Democrats retain the Senate (they have it at 48-46 with 4 undecided).
#38. To: Badeye (#37)
(Edited)
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#39. To: All (#38)
(Edited)
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#40. To: All (#39)
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#41. To: go65 (#39)
Barrack Hussein Obama
President of the United States of America said that some Americans ; "They can come for the ride, but they gotta sit in back."
#42. To: go65 (#40)
(Edited)
www.politico.com/2010/maps/#/House/2010
#43. To: Badeye, ALL (#37)
My Prediction:
#44. To: All (#43)
#45. To: All (#44)
#46. To: All (#44)
#47. To: Brian S (#45)
Luntz also said he thinks Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will win reelection.
#48. To: go65 (#0)
#49. To: hondo68 (#47)
Luntz is frequently wrong. His "focus groups" are stacked.
#50. To: All (#49)
#51. To: All (#50)
#52. To: go65 (#0)
#53. To: All (#51)
#54. To: Brian S (#53)
#55. To: hondo68 (#54)
O.K., here's a sign that tonight might not be an apocalypse for Democrats: the Kentucky Third District, where John Yarmuth, a Democrat, had been favored but the polling had been erratic, has been called for him. The other vulnerable Democrat in Kentucky, Ben Chandler, is also leading so far in Kentucky's Sixth District. Even though Rand Paul has won the Senate race in Kentucky, I'm not sure he didn't hurt the G.O.P. at the margins down ballot.
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#56. To: All (#55)
Who's to blame for the economy? Bankers (34%), Bush (29%), Obama (24%). Of those who blame bankers, Republicans hold an 11 point advantage.
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#57. To: All (#56)
(Edited)
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#58. To: All (#53)
#59. To: Brian S (#58)
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#60. To: All (#59)
Per the exit polls, the partisan breakdown was 36% D, 36% R, and 28% I. Indies broke to the GOP 56- 39. So, all in line with the polling
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#61. To: All (#60)
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#62. To: All (#61)
Hearing too close to call in PA and IL.
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#63. To: Brian S, skip intro (#62)
OH-Gov -- Strickland (D) up 53, Kaisich 43 with 8% in.
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#64. To: All (#63)
CBS calls it for Periello's opponent in VA-05. That's the first GOP pickup of the night.
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#65. To: All (#64)
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#66. To: All (#65)
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#67. To: All (#66)
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
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