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Title: Put up or Shut Up (Predict outcome next Tuesday)
Source: Badeye
URL Source: http://n/a
Published: Oct 27, 2010
Author: Badeye
Post Date: 2010-10-27 11:50:41 by Badeye
Keywords: None
Views: 11108
Comments: 29

Okay folks, its time to put up or shut up. We have an election in six days that will decide if we want another two years of liberalism, or restoration of divided government as the Founders intended.

I'm clearly on record as predicting 70 plus seats gained by the Republican Party in the House, and with it a clear majority there.

I'm clearly on record as saying they will pick up the 10 seats required to attain a nominal majority in the Senate.

Put up, or shut up.

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 11.

#3. To: Badeye (#0)

48 seat gain in the House.

5 to 7 in the Senate (GOP will lose in California, Washington, Connecticut, Delaware, and probably Illinois and Pennsylvania)

9 Governorships + Tancredo, who will win in Colorado. The GOP candidate will get under 5% in Colorado.

jwpegler  posted on  2010-10-27   12:11:26 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: All (#3) (Edited)

Here's how I see the Senate:

The GOP will not lose any seats they hold now.

The GOP will certainly pick up 4 seats: Arkansas, Indiana, North Dakota, and Wisconsin.

The GOP will not pick up California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, or Washington

The GOP could pick up an addition 4 seats in: Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania, West Virginia.

I will bet on Nevada, which makes my base 5.

If Illinois is close, it will be stolen from the GOP. Pennsylvania is like fools gold to the GOP (it always look good at first, but then turns out to be nothing). When was the last time West Virgina voted for a Republican Senator? 1958!

jwpegler  posted on  2010-10-27   12:32:38 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: jwpegler (#5)

The GOP will not pick up California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, or Washington

The GOP has at least as good a chance of winning CO as losing.

DE and CN are lost causes. The GOP gave away a sure seat in DE.

CA is beginning to look that way, too.

Slim shot in WA.

The GOP could pick up an addition 4 seats in: Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania, West Virginia.

They could easily pick up all 4.

no gnu taxes  posted on  2010-10-27   12:53:20 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#8. To: no gnu taxes (#7)

DE and CN are lost causes. The GOP gave away a sure seat in DE.

I"m not so sure about the 'prevailing wisdom' related to Delaware, either the 'sure thing' - Castle lost the primary by a large margin - or if its a 'lost cause'.

Delaware's polling data is notoriously inaccurate. Election cycle after election cycle, including this one.

O'Donnell was allegedly DOWN 25% just before the primary for example. She won by 6%.

We'll see what happens.

Badeye  posted on  2010-10-27   14:52:32 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#9. To: Badeye (#8)

Larry Sabato just released his final prediction:

55 seat gain in the House, 8 seat gain in the Senate.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2010102801/

go65  posted on  2010-10-28   9:40:29 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#11. To: go65 (#9)

Larry Sabato just released his final prediction:

55 seat gain in the House, 8 seat gain in the Senate.

Yep, saw him saying it last night on O'Reilly.

We'll see.

Badeye  posted on  2010-10-28   11:32:29 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


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