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Title: Hurricane Paula sets a rapid intensification record
Source:
Accuweather
URL Source: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Je ... ers/comment.html?entrynum=1653
Published: Oct 12, 2010
Author: Dr. Jeff Masters
Post Date: 2010-10-12 15:24:25 by go65
Keywords: None
Views: 13874
Comments: 24
Hurricane warnings are flying along the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula for Hurricane Paula, the 16th named storm and 9th hurricane of this very active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Paula intensified remarkably quickly, setting a modern record for the fastest intensification from the issuance of the first advisory to hurricane strength. The first advisory for Paula was issued at 5pm EDT yesterday, and Paula strengthened into a hurricane just twelve hours later, at 5am EDT this morning. Since reliable record keeping of intensification rates of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970, when regular satellite coverage became available, no storm has ever intensified into a hurricane that quickly. Hurricane Humberto of 2007 held the previous record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. However, there is one caveat to keep in mind. The final Atlantic hurricane data base (HURDAT) stores points every six hours--at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC. It is likely that Paula will be recognized as having been a tropical depression at 12 UTC (8am EDT) or 18Z (2pm EDT) yesterday, 3 - 9 hours before the first advisory was issued. Even though Paula met the criteria for being named a tropical depression yesterday morning, NHC elected not to do so, since it was unclear whether or not passage over land would disrupt the nascent tropical depression (a new tropical depression must demonstrate some staying power before it will get recognized, typically.) In the final HURDAT data base, it may turn out that Paula will be recognized as intensifying from first advisory to a hurricane in eighteen hours, tying Humberto's record. There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours. Fortunately for Mexico, Paula has not been able to maintain its rapid intensification rate. Satellite intensity estimates show that Paula has leveled off in intensity this morning. Microwave satellite images (Figure 1) and traditional satellite imagery reveal that Paula is small hurricane with a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms. Water vapor satellite loops indicate that the atmosphere in the Western Caribbean is moist enough to support further development, but moderate wind shear of 15 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the south are hampering Paula's intensification. Radar from Belize and Cancun shows that Paula's outer spiral bands are still well offshore. The next hurricane hunter mission is scheduled for 2pm EDT this afternoon; there has been no airplane in the storm since about 4am this morning. Forecast for Paula Tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph extend out from Paula's center about 60 miles to the north, and are forecast to expand to 100 miles by early Wednesday morning. Paula's current northwest motion of 10 mph means that tropical storm force winds should reach the coast of Mexico near Cozumel between 8pm - 2am local time tonight. A good way to visualize this is to use our wundermap with the "hurricane" layer turned on, and click on the "forecast" and "wind radius" boxes. Hurricane force winds extend out just ten miles from the center, so only a very small region of coast will receive Paula's strongest winds. The 5am EDT wind probability product from NHC predicts a 91% chance that Cozumel will receive tropical storm force winds, and a 31% chance of getting hurricane force winds of 74+ mph. The main threat from the storm will be heavy rain, particularly over western Cuba and the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, if Paula stalls as expected and wanders in the region for many days. Rainfall forecasts from the HWRF and GFDL models (Figure 2) suggest that Paula will be capable of dumping more than a foot of rain in isolated regions over the next five days. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, tonight through the end of the week. This high shear, combined with the dry atmosphere to the north of Paula, should keep the hurricane from becoming a major hurricane. NHC is giving Paula just a 6% chance of becoming a major hurricane. The shear and dry air may even weaken the storm below hurricane strength later this week, as suggested by most of the intensity forecast models. Paula is a small storm, so is fairly vulnerable to shear and dry air. There is considerable doubt about the future path of Paula. Steering currents in the Western Caribbean will collapse on Wednesday, potentially allowing Paula to wander in the region for many days, as predicted by the GFS and HWRF models. It is also possible that Paula will push far enough inland over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that the storm will dissipate. Finally, if Paula grows large enough and strong enough, it could get caught up a strong trough of low pressure predicted to traverse the U.S. this week (and spawn a Nor'easter for New England this weekend.) In this scenario, offered by the GFDL model, Paula would make a sharp turn to the east-northeast, hit western Cuba, bring tropical storm-force finds to the Florida Keys on Friday, then move into the Bahama Islands by Saturday morning. NHC is making the reasonable forecast of sticking with what the majority of models are saying, but residents of South Florida, Central Cuba, and the Bahamas should be prepared for Paula to come their way as a strong tropical storm.
Figure 1. Microwave image of Paula taken at 6:35am EDT 10/12/10 shows that Paula is a small hurricane, with heavy rains confined to a small area near the center. Though the images are not radar images, one can think of these images as similar to having a radar in space that can provide images of where heavy rain is occurring. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey. 
Figure 2. Total accumulated rainfall for the 5.25 day period beginning at 2am EDT today, October 12, 2010, as predicted by the 2am EDT runs of the HWRF model (top) and GFDL model (bottom.) The HWRF model predicts Paula will stay trapped in the Western Caribbean, causing very high rainfall totals. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
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#1. To: All (#0)
Has Sen. Inhofe's office issued a statement denying the existence of this hurricane?
Its owe-bama's fault, he didn't sign the Kyoto Treaty.....(grin)
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
Study: Global warming may diminish Atlantic hurricane activity By Randolph E. Schmid, AP Science Writer WASHINGTON — The debate over whether global warming affects hurricanes may be running into some unexpected turbulence. Many researchers believe warming is causing the storms to get stronger, while others aren't so sure. Now, a new study raises the possibility that global warming might even make it harder for hurricanes to form. The findings, by Gabriel A. Vecchi of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Brian J. Soden of the University of Miami, are reported in Wednesday's issue of Geophysical Research Letters. Vecchi and Soden used 18 complex computer climate models to anticipate the effects of warming in the years 2001-2020 and 2018-2100. Included in the results were an increase in vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and eastern Pacific oceans. Vertical wind shear is a difference in wind speed or direction at different altitudes. When a hurricane encounters vertical wind shear the hurricane can weaken when the heat of rising air dissipates over a larger area. On the other hand, warm water provides the energy that drives hurricanes, so warmer conditions should make the storms stronger. "We don't know whether the change in shear will cancel out the increased potential from warming oceans, but the shear increase would tend to make the Atlantic and East Pacific less favorable to hurricanes," said Vecchi, of NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J. "Which one of the two — warming oceans or increasing shear — will be the dominant factor? Will they cancel out? We and others are currently exploring those very questions, and we hope to have a better grasp on that answer in the near future," Vecchi said. "What we can say is that the magnitude of the shear change is large enough that it cannot be ignored," he added. Any decrease in strength or frequency of storms caused by shear would apply only if all else was equal, Vecchi said, "but all else is not equal, since the shear increase is being driven by global warming." Soden, of Miami's Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, added: "This study does not in any way undermine the widespread consensus in the scientific community about the reality of global warming." The massive destruction caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 focused attention on tropical cyclones — as these storms are also known — and some well-known researchers suggested the warming seas were fueling stronger storms. Last year an El Niño — a warming of the water in the tropical Pacific that can affect weather worldwide — dampened the Atlantic hurricane season. Now, just weeks before the traditional June 1 start of the hurricane season, forecasters and residents of hurricane-threatened regions nervously wait to see what this summer will bring. The government's hurricane season forecast has yet to be issued, but a top storm researcher has predicted a very active 2007 Atlantic hurricane season. Colorado State University's William Gray expects at least nine hurricanes, with a good chance one will hit the U.S. coast. While Vecchi and Soden's research indicates increased wind shear in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific, their models did not find the same thing elsewhere. The models projected that the west and central Pacific should become more favorable to development of the storms, called typhoons in those areas. Kerry Emanuel, a hurricane expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said he thinks storms' sensitivity to wind shear may be overestimated. Emanuel, who was not involved in this research, said he published a study last year that calculated that increasing the potential intensity of a storm via warming by 10% increases hurricane power by 65%, whereas increasing shear by 10% decreases hurricane power by only 12%. On the other hand, Christopher W. Landsea of NOAA's National Hurricane Center, called Vecchi's study "a very important contribution to the understanding of how global warming is affecting hurricane activity." Landsea, who was not part of the research, said he believes it "provides evidence that the busy period we've seen in the Atlantic hurricanes since 1995 is due to natural cycles, rather than manmade causes." The research was funded by NOAA and NASA.
That's true - the monster blizzards on the east coast this past winter were fueled by a warmer than normal Atlantic off the coast of North Carolina. how old is this? This year has been an especially active season, corresponding with the warmest year on record - 9 hurricanes, 5 major storms (Paula could become #6)
So now that more hurricanes are occurring, the meme is changing back to global warming causes more hurricanes?
Owe-bama's failures to combat global warming created this storm.
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
The meme is that global warming causes stronger hurricanes, not necessarily more. However, the article you posted from 2007 suggested that global warming would cause less, however this is the hottest year on record and storm activity is up.
What happened last year, rapid cooling?
Owe-bama lied, he said in his Inaugural the oceans would receded, the planet would heal. When's he signing the Kyoto Treaty, so that Hurricanes NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN?!! (laughing)
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
So, they only started saying it caused less because far less hurricanes rhan forecast were occurring. No matter what happens, in fact, it is attributable to AGW, which is a joke for science.
And the average number of named storms each year is about 15 which is about what we've had this year
And again, climatologists largely argue that global warming leads to more intense, not necessarily more frequent storms. And the average number of named storms in a year is 9-10, not 15: See: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml?
Are you accepting then that the planet is warming?
LOL. It warms up during the day... and cools off at night. If you're referring to "global warming," that scam is over. It's DEAD, Jim... I know......... You'll scream, and pretend it's NOT true... it's ALIVE!!!!
Getting tired of the bozoed calcon following me around on the 'net, wanting to discuss "tossing salad." Sorry, you sick rump-ranger. NOT interested.
NASA Reports Hottest January-August Ever http://climateprogress.org/2010/09/12/nasahottest-january-to-august-on-record/ What a waste... you're a TRUE moron... what Marx referred to as a "useful idiot." Getting tired of the bozoed calcon following me around on the 'net, wanting to discuss "tossing salad." Sorry, you sick rump-ranger. NOT interested.
Tell me go65, what temperature was it SUPPOSED to be during that time? (plus or minus a half degree)
(sneakypete)DID Palin say or write these things or not? (Mad Dog's reply) I don't know or F ing care. Pete, MD doesn't know or care what Palin says or writes, he'll support her no matter what.
Huh? We aren't talking about a single temperature, we're talking about a global composite of variations from historical norms. Once again: So far your only critique of this chart is "it's all a conspiracy".
Oops, my bad. What should the "global composite of variations from historical norms" have been? Plus or minus a half degree, F? Keep telling yourself that. I'm sure you'll feel better.
(sneakypete)DID Palin say or write these things or not? (Mad Dog's reply) I don't know or F ing care. Pete, MD doesn't know or care what Palin says or writes, he'll support her no matter what.
Hurricanes will get stronger. develop faster. 'Hide' in the H/L vacuums. Droughts will increase followed by Normal 12 inch rains.
We've left the Holocene. This is now the Anthropocene moving into a Steady State. We don't know what that'll be but you can be sure Civilization won't survive it. Hell, in 5 years, most Americans won't be eating cows anymore.
Owe-bama's failure to get onboard with the Kyoto Treaty brought this hurricane down upon the world....
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
have you seen this: yes, I did. Positive Feedback Loops are NOT positive. Amphibian populations are crashing world wide. Humans can't live w/o amphibians. We have no idea what's about to happen. Like this drought that Mid America is in right now. I told someone that if this thing gets broken with an 8in + rain, you'll know we're in the next geologic period now.
Paula intensified remarkably quickly, setting a modern record for the fastest intensification from the issuance of the first advisory to hurricane strength. T
Reality check - Government spending is down, the deficit is down, government employment is down, and private hiring is up.
#2. To: go65 (#0)
#3. To: go65 (#1)
#4. To: no gnu taxes (#3)
(Edited)
On the other hand, warm water provides the energy that drives hurricanes, so warmer conditions should make the storms stronger.
The government's hurricane season forecast has yet to be issued, but a top storm researcher has predicted a very active 2007 Atlantic hurricane season. Colorado State University's William Gray expects at least nine hurricanes, with a good chance one will hit the U.S. coast.
Reality check - Government spending is down, the deficit is down, government employment is down, and private hiring is up.
#5. To: go65 (#4)
#6. To: go65 (#4)
#7. To: no gnu taxes (#5)
(Edited)
So now that more hurricanes are occurring, the meme is changing back to global warming causes more hurricanes?
Reality check - Government spending is down, the deficit is down, government employment is down, and private hiring is up.
#8. To: go65 (#7)
The meme is that global warming causes stronger hurricanes, not necessarily more. However, the article you posted from 2007 suggested that global warming would cause less, however this is the hottest year on record and storm activity is up.
#9. To: Ibluafartsky (#8)
#10. To: go65 (#7)
However, the article you posted from 2007 suggested that global warming would cause less, however this is the hottest year on record and storm activity is up.
#11. To: go65 (#7)
#12. To: no gnu taxes (#11)
And the average number of named storms each year is about 15 which is about what we've had this year
Reality check - Government spending is down, the deficit is down, government employment is down, and private hiring is up.
#13. To: no gnu taxes (#10)
So, they only started saying it caused less because far less hurricanes rhan forecast were occurring.
Reality check - Government spending is down, the deficit is down, government employment is down, and private hiring is up.
#14. To: go65 (#13)
Are you accepting then that the planet is warming?
NOT.
#15. To: Capitalist Eric (#14)
Reality check - Government spending is down, the deficit is down, government employment is down, and private hiring is up.
#16. To: go65 (#15)
(Edited)
#17. To: go65 (#15)
NASA Reports Hottest January-August Ever
#18. To: Wood_Chopper (#17)
Tell me go65, what temperature was it SUPPOSED to be during that time? (plus or minus a half degree)
Reality check - Government spending is down, the deficit is down, government employment is down, and private hiring is up.
#19. To: go65 (#18)
Huh? We aren't talking about a single temperature, we're talking about a global composite of variations from historical norms.
So far your only critique of this chart is "it's all a conspiracy".
#20. To: no gnu taxes (#3)
#21. To: go65 (#18)
#22. To: go65 (#0)
#23. To: mcgowanjm (#20)
Droughts will increase followed by Normal 12 inch rains.
Reality check - Government spending is down, the deficit is down, government employment is down, and private hiring is up.
#24. To: go65 (#23)
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