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Title: Factcheck: Did the Stimulus Create Jobs? (Yes!)
Source: http://factcheck.org/2010/09/did-the-stimulus-create-jobs/
URL Source: http://Factcheck
Published: Sep 27, 2010
Author: factcheck
Post Date: 2010-09-27 18:08:58 by go65
Keywords: None
Views: 5258
Comments: 5

Summary

The economic stimulus package is a favorite target of Republican candidates and groups, but more than a few ads falsely claim it did not create or save any jobs. Some recent examples:

Republican House candidate Dan Debicella charges that Democratic Rep. Jim Himes failed Connecticut’s families because he voted for a "stimulus package that has done nothing to reduce unemployment." Rick Scott, the Republican candidate for governor in Florida, says Democrat Alex Sink "backed the failed stimulus bill, which created debt, not jobs."

Similarly, Sink — who never served in Congress and didn’t vote on the bill — is attacked by the Republican Party of Florida in an ad that says the stimulus "gave us big debt and no jobs."

Americans for Prosperity, a conservative group that does not have to disclose its donors, aired an ad against Democratic congressional candidate Denny Heck of Washington that claimed the "$787 billion stimulus … failed to save and create jobs." The group has launched similar ads against other Democrats. Kristi Noem, a Republican House candidate from South Dakota, calls the measure a "jobless stimulus."

The truth is that the stimulus increased employment by between 1.4 million and 3.3 million people, compared with what employment would have been otherwise. That’s according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

Analysis

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, more commonly known as the stimulus bill, has been featured in more than 130 TV ads this year, according to a database maintained by Kantar Media’s Campaign Media Analysis Group. In many of those ads, Republicans claim the bill has "failed" (a matter of opinion) or state (correctly) that unemployment has gone up since President Barack Obama signed the bill into law on Feb. 17, 2009. The national unemployment rate was 8.2 percent in February 2009, and it now stands at 9.6 percent, having peaked at 10.1 percent in October 2009.

But it’s just false to say that the stimulus created "no jobs" or "failed to save and create jobs" or "has done nothing to reduce unemployment" – or similar claims that the stimulus did not produce any jobs.

As we have written before, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released a report in August that said the stimulus bill has "[l]owered the unemployment rate by between 0.7 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points" and "[i]ncreased the number of people employed by between 1.4 million and 3.3 million."

Simply put, more people would be unemployed if not for the stimulus bill. The exact number of jobs created and saved is difficult to estimate, but nonpartisan economists say there’s no doubt that the number is positive.

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#1. To: go65 (#0)

Factcheck: Did the Stimulus Create Jobs? (Yes!)

100% wrong.

The measure has ALWAYS been NET jobs gained or lost. 2 million NET job have been LOST since the stimulus was passed.

It's a miserable failure.


democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not -- Thomas Jefferson

jwpegler  posted on  2010-09-27   18:34:06 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: jwpegler (#1) (Edited)

Nope.

No stimulus = 1.4 to 3.3 million MORE unemployed.


And the Conservative plan to create jobs is......?????

go65  posted on  2010-09-27   19:06:50 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: go65 (#0)

If a meteorologist was asked what the day's high temperature had been, would it be acceptable to simply repeat his/her earlier forecast? Of course not. The forecast was merely a prediction, which should now be replaced with what actually happened.

Yet that is the approach the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) used when declaring that the stimulus had saved 1.5 million jobs. Rather than actually examine the performance of the post-stimulus economy, it essentially re-released its old forecast that the stimulus would likely create jobs.

CBO Confirms Its Methodology

In a recent speech to the National Association of Business Economics, CBO Director Doug Elmendorf confirmed this by stating:

[W]e don't think one can learn much from watching the evolution of particular components of GDP [gross domestic product] over the last few quarters about the effects of the stimulus … so we fall back on repeating the sort of analysis we did before. And we tried to be very explicit about it that it is essentially repeating the same exercise we did rather than an independent check on it.[1]

When asked if this means that any actual underperformance of the stimulus would fail to show up in the CBO's stimulus jobs count, Elmendorf replied "That's right." This means the 1.5 million jobs saved estimate was pre-determined.

Of course, the stimulus was originally promised to create (not just save) more than 3 million jobs.[2] Instead, the economy has since lost more than 3 million additional net jobs. The abject failure of the stimulus policies recommended by Keynesian economic models should induce some fundamental re-analysis of these models' assumptions. Instead, the CBO is re-releasing the same jobs analysis--with the same economic assumptions--that they had used a year ago.

The "Begging the Question" Fallacy

The CBO's conclusion that the stimulus created jobs is based on an economic model that began with the premise that all stimulus bills create jobs. In other words, the conclusion is already assumed as a premise. Logicians call this the fallacy of begging the question. Mathematicians call it assuming what you are trying to prove.

http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/03/stimulus-jobs-count-cbo-admits-it-ignored-the-economys-actual-performance

no gnu taxes  posted on  2010-09-28   12:28:16 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: go65 (#0)

rotflmao!

Good luck with this dog that not only won't hunt, its blind, has only three legs, and died 12 months ago.

Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.

Badeye  posted on  2010-09-28   12:29:13 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: go65 (#2)

No stimulus = 1.4 to 3.3 million MORE unemployed.

That's like saying the proceeds of every 7th slave sold will be used to give the other slaves the day off.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2010-09-29   10:04:20 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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