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Economy Title: Index of U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Rises 0.3% Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The index of U.S. leading indicators rose in August more than forecast, signaling the economy will keep expanding through early next year. The 0.3 percent gain in the New York-based Conference Board’s gauge of the prospects for the economy in the next three to six months follows a 0.1 percent increase in July. The index was forecast to rise 0.1 percent, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 56 economists. A longer factory workweek, higher stock prices and a gain in building permits were among the reasons for the increase in the index. Federal Reserve policy makers this week said growth is likely to be “modest in the near term” and added they are prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support the recovery. The leading index is “consistent with growth continuing, albeit down from earlier in the year,” said Jim O’Sullivan, global chief economist at MF Global Ltd. in New York. “Growth should start to gather momentum again by the fourth quarter.” The index gained 0.7 percent on average in the 12 months through June. Estimates for the change in the index in August ranged from a decline of 0.4 percent to a gain of 0.5 percent, according to the Bloomberg survey. Sales of existing homes rose in August to the second-lowest level on record and applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, separate reports showed today. Purchases of existing houses climbed to a 4.13 million annual pace, in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and second only to July’s 3.84 million rate as the weakest in a decade’s worth of data, the National Association of Realtors said. Jobless Claims Initial jobless claims increased by 12,000 to 465,000 in the week ended Sept. 18, according to the Labor Department. Stocks trimmed losses after the reports on home sales and leading indicators, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index falling 0.4 percent to 1,129.57 at 10:14 a.m. in New York. Treasuries rose, pushing the yield on the 10-year note down four basis points to 2.52 percent. Seven of the 10 indicators in the leading index contributed to the gain in August, led by the spread between the federal funds rate and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note and an increase in money supply. Three components weighed on the index, including rising jobless claims, a drop in manufacturing supplier deliveries and manufacturers’ orders for consumer goods. Coincident Indicators The Conference Board’s index of coincident indicators, a gauge of current economic activity, was unchanged in August after a 0.1 percent gain the previous month. The coincident index tracks payrolls, incomes, sales and production -- the measures used by the National Bureau of Economic Research to determine the beginning and end of U.S. recessions. The Cambridge, Massachusetts-based group this week said the worst U.S. recession since the Great Depression ended in June 2009, lasting 18 months. The index of leading indicators began rising in April 2009, while the Conference Board’s coincident index turned positive in July 2009 after posting negative readings since January 2008. The gauge of lagging indicators increased 0.2 percent last month. The index measures business lending, length of unemployment, service prices and ratios of labor costs, inventories and consumer credit. Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest
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Take issue with the use of the word "expanding". We will be expanding AFTER we recover to the point where we reach where George The Boy Blunder Bush and the GOP killed the US economy back in December of 2007.
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