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Title: The Budget Deficit, The Real Story
Source: [None]
URL Source: http://thedmichaelwallerreport.blog ... budget-deficit-real-story.html
Published: Aug 9, 2010
Author: thedmichaelwallerreport
Post Date: 2010-08-09 13:06:18 by no gnu taxes
Keywords: None
Views: 24634
Comments: 46

The Washington Post babbled again today about Obama inheriting a huge deficit from Bush.

Amazingly enough, a lot of people swallow this nonsense (AKA Horseshit). So once more, a short civics lesson is in order.

Budgets do not come from the White House. They come from Congress, and the party that controlled Congress since January 2007 is the Democratic Party. They controlled the budget process for FY 2008 and FY 2009, as well as FY 2010 and FY 2011. In that first year, they had to contend with George Bush, which caused them to compromise on spending, when Bush somewhat belatedly got tough on spending increases. For FY 2009, though, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid bypassed George Bush entirely, passing continuing resolutions to keep government running until Barack Obama could take office. At that time, they passed a massive omnibus spending bill to complete the FY 2009 budgets.

And where was Barack Obama during this time? He was a member of that very Congress that passed all of these massive spending bills, and he signed the omnibus bill as President to complete FY 2009. Let's remember what the deficits looked like during that period:

If the Democrats inherited any deficit, it was the FY 2007 deficit, the last of the Republican budgets. That deficit was the lowest in five years, and the fourth straight decline in deficit spending. After that, Democrats in Congress took control of spending, and that includes Barack Obama, who voted for the budgets. If Obama inherited anything, he inherited it from himself.

In a nutshell, what Obama is saying is I inherited a deficit that I voted for and then I voted to expand that deficit four-fold since January 20th.

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#1. To: no gnu taxes (#0)

If the Democrats inherited any deficit, it was the FY 2007 deficit, the last of the Republican budgets.

The budget has been in deficit since boy george moved into the oval office.

Cut taxes, grow our way out of debt economic theory proved false.

lucysmom  posted on  2010-08-09   13:18:06 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: lucysmom (#1)

The budget has been in deficit since President Bush

The deficits started with Clinton's exiting recession.

no gnu taxes  posted on  2010-08-09   13:21:19 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: no gnu taxes (#2)

The deficits started with Clinton's exiting recession.

You mean the one that started under Bush's watch?

lucysmom  posted on  2010-08-09   13:27:30 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: lucysmom (#3)

Bush didn't have anything to do with a recession that officially began in March of 2001. The economy was in decline before the sinkmeister ever left Office.

no gnu taxes  posted on  2010-08-09   13:34:35 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: no gnu taxes (#0)

The Washington Post babbled again today about Obama inheriting a huge deficit from Bush.

There's a difference between a budget deficit and a national debt.

The budget deficit is how much you're overspending, versus cash coming in. A degree of how much you're living beyond your means, in simple terms.

If you're making $36k/year, and you're spending $48k/year, when everything is considered, your budget deficit is $12K.

The budget deficit is an important number, but the REALLY important number is the total debt. We talk about how much we're overspending, but no congress- critter wants to do anything serious about it. Anyway, the deficit spending doesn't matter...

Current debt is $100T+.

Which means the USA is already broke, and has no way to pay.

This debt existed before Bush left office, and will continue to grow, until the dollar collapses. No matter who occupied the WH, they're stuck with this fact.

The article you posted, therefore, is simply more shilling of the L vs. R false- paradigm.

Go BACK to your employers... tell them you failed.

Capitalist Eric  posted on  2010-08-09   13:46:12 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: no gnu taxes (#2) (Edited)

The deficits started with Clinton's exiting recession.

Recession started in March 2001. Clinton was out of office. So, according to you and the other Mouth Breathers, Boy Blunder owned it.

That said, the 2001 budget, Clinton's last, was in surplus.

war  posted on  2010-08-09   13:46:36 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: no gnu taxes (#4) (Edited)

The economy was in decline before Clinton ever left Office.

Actually, it really wasn't. There is debate within the NBER as to whether or not that recession should have even been declared.

But your point is correct. It was fairly obvious to most of us who were paying attention that in late Summer of 2006 the economy was going in the crapper.

war  posted on  2010-08-09   13:50:48 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#8. To: no gnu taxes (#4)

The economy was in decline before the sinkmeister ever left Office.

First it was "overheated" and the fed increased interest rates to slow it down.

lucysmom  posted on  2010-08-09   13:54:46 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#9. To: no gnu taxes (#0)

hey come from Congress, and the party that controlled Congress since January 2007 is the Democratic Party. They controlled the budget process for FY 2008 and FY 2009, as well as FY 2010 and FY 2011. In that first year, they had to contend with George Bush, which caused them to compromise on spending, when Bush somewhat belatedly got tough on spending increases. For FY 2009, though, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid bypassed George Bush entirely, passing continuing resolutions to keep government running until Barack Obama could take office. At that time, they passed a massive omnibus spending bill to complete the FY 2009 budgets.

Who ran the Congress when two huge tax increases were passed, along with massive new spending on Medicare and wars, without any of it being paid for?


Being a Republicans means you get to choose your own reality

go65  posted on  2010-08-09   14:23:36 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#10. To: go65 (#9)

Lets start with President Bush's record 12 months post the recession ended in July of 2003. In a note to clients around that time (June 17/2004 to be precise), I wrote.."...we have been getting more good news on the booming US economy"...some of the economic data points that I referenced at the time included:

* initial jobless claims dropped 15k to 343k.

* capacity utilization rose to 77.8%

* industrial production rose 1.1% in May (strongest in 6 years)

* factory production rose 6.4%, the biggest increase since April 2000

* housing starts strong at an annual rate of 2.12 million which surpasses previous years 1.85million, the most in 25 years.

-------------------------

Now, fast forward to 2010. We have a complete tly different picture 12 months following the end of the most recent recession. In fact...the policies implemented by the current administration have produced quite a different, more negative economic environment that Fed Chairman Bernanke describes as one with "unusual uncertainty". The failure of these stimulus policies have led many to fear the dreaded 'double dip". So lets look at President Obama's record one year post recession end:

* Consumer confidence remains low

* Stocks are hugging the flat line year to date

* The housing market remains in the doldrums not responding to record gobs of stimulus money

* Consumer spending and incomes are stagnating according to data released this AM

* Bernanke is quoted as saying today that the economy is still short of full recovery

* Treasury Secretary Geithner is saying today that unemployment will get worse before it gets better.

* GDP growth slowed in the 2nd qtr to 2.4% from 3.7% in 1st qtr.

* Growth in the manufacturing sector is moderating

* Unemployment remains stubbornly high bordering on double digits at 9.5%

* Jobless claims continue to average over 450k

* Friday's jobs report is expected to show a second month of net job losses

* The Fed may be getting desperate as the rumors of QE Part Deux escalate

* Impression that the Fed is "pushing on a string" have surfaced

* Flattening yield curve

* Rising Deficits and Debt are a growing concern with increased entitlement spending

* Confusion about impact of Fin reg and New Health Care legislation leading to "unusual uncertainty" which has catalyzed record levels of corporate cash sidelined

* The dreaded double "D's" Deflation and Deleveraging are on the radar!

* Capacity Utilization remains below 75%

no gnu taxes  posted on  2010-08-09   14:28:07 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#11. To: war (#6)

The Clinton Manufacturing Recession

Gross Domestic Product has expanded six consecutive quarters and industrial production grew in 2002. But total non-farm payroll employment has declined by 2.1 million jobs since its peak in March 2001, leading critics to pin the decrease on President Bush and to describe the current economic situation as a “jobless recovery.”

But closer examination of the employment data shows that if blame is to be awarded, it should go to ex-President Clinton. The data also reveal the need for the Bush tax cut.

Job losses are concentrated in the economy’s manufacturing private industry sector, which peaked in April 1998 on Clinton’s watch. In the ensuing five years, 2.6 million manufacturing jobs (14 percent) have disappeared.

You can call this the Clinton Manufacturing Recession — and it's the major reason why total non-farm employment has not grown.

The services-producing sector — 82 percent of the economy — has created 353,000 new jobs under President Bush since reaching a trough in December 2001. Job growth is spread across two private-industry sectors: services and the sector that includes finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE).

The National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of cyclical turning points, has said the economy reached a peak in March 2001. FIRE employment was 7.6 million in March 2001 and has grown to 7.8 million as of April 2003. Services employment was 41 million in March 2001 and has edged up to 41.4 million as of last month.

Growth in the services sector under President Bush has been greatest in the area of health and education. Gains have also occurred in engineering and management services, a hi-tech component. Government employment, counted in the services-producing sector, has also grown, but the largest gains are in non-federal employment.

Not every services-producing industry sector has grown under President Bush. Declines occurred in retail and wholesale trade, as well as transportation and public utilities. But these drop-offs pale in comparison with the manufacturing job losses that started under Clinton.

Nondurable manufacturing employment peaked at 7.9 million workers in January 1995. Components that peaked under Clinton included: food and kindred products (October 1995); textile mill products (November 1994); printing and publishing (May 1998); and rubber and miscellaneous plastics (February 2000). Many of these jobs were once concentrated in the South.

Durable manufacturing peaked at 11.2 million workers in April 1998. Components that peaked under Clinton included: lumber and wood (February 2000); furniture and fixtures (July 2000); primary metals (January 1998); fabricated metals (July 2000); industrial machinery and equipment (March 1998); electronic and other electrical equipment (November 2000); transportation equipment (October 1998); instruments and related products (March 1998); and miscellaneous manufacturing (April 1998). Some of the largest durables goods employment is in the upper Midwest.

No manufacturing component has peaked under President Bush. Stone, clay, and glass — a durable component — peaked in January 2001, the month Clinton left office. Six other manufacturing components peaked pre-1993.

President Bush inherited an economy on the brink of recession. Employment in the goods-producing sector (manufacturing, construction, mining) and industrial production peaked under Clinton. GDP contracted for three quarters in 2001 but has expanded for six quarters under President Bush. Yet total non-farm employment has not grown due to manufacturing job losses. Far from a “jobless recovery,” the economy is suffering from the Clinton Manufacturing Recession, and is in need of fiscal stimulus.

no gnu taxes  posted on  2010-08-09   15:00:26 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#12. To: no gnu taxes (#11)

Link with author please?

Never mind...you've posted this so many fucking times I already know that it's an opinion piece from National Review.

war  posted on  2010-08-09   15:03:43 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#13. To: war (#12)

But these drop-offs pale in comparison with the manufacturing job losses that started under Clinton.

Nondurable manufacturing employment peaked at 7.9 million workers in January 1995. Components that peaked under Clinton included: food and kindred products (October 1995); textile mill products (November 1994); printing and publishing (May 1998); and rubber and miscellaneous plastics (February 2000). Many of these jobs were once concentrated in the South.

Durable manufacturing peaked at 11.2 million workers in April 1998. Components that peaked under Clinton included: lumber and wood (February 2000); furniture and fixtures (July 2000); primary metals (January 1998); fabricated metals (July 2000); industrial machinery and equipment (March 1998); electronic and other electrical equipment (November 2000); transportation equipment (October 1998); instruments and related products (March 1998); and miscellaneous manufacturing (April 1998). Some of the largest durables goods employment is in the upper Midwest.

No manufacturing component has peaked under President Bush. Stone, clay, and glass — a durable component — peaked in January 2001, the month Clinton left office.

Awful lot of facts in there for an opinion piece.

no gnu taxes  posted on  2010-08-09   15:14:49 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#14. To: no gnu taxes (#0) (Edited)

I really dislike these GOP sycophants even worse than the brain dead leftists in the Democrat party.

I started voting in 1980. I waited 20 years for the GOP to run it all -- Presidency, House, and Senate. We got there in Jan, 2001.

What did they do?

They created the first new entitlement since LBJ (Medicare prescription drugs); largest federal intrusion into the classroom in history (No Child Left Behind); largest pork barrel project ever (2002 highway bill); waste, fraud and abuse at record levels (according to the Heritage Foundation); a $1 trillion war with a country that never attacked us and wasn't a threat to us; the incompetent TSA; totalitarian legislation like the Patriot Act, on and on and on...

They turned a balance budget into huge deficits, collapsed the economy, and ended by handing out $700 billion to Wall Street financial firms who promptly used it to lavish bonuses on failed executives.

That's what happens when the GOP runs it all.

No thanks.

Sure Obama is worse. He's a Democrat. Of course he's worse. But that doesn't mean the GOP is good. And it certainly doesn't excuse the GOP from their responsibility no matter how hard you twist yourself into the wind.

jwpegler  posted on  2010-08-09   15:24:43 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#15. To: no gnu taxes (#10)

Lets start with President Bush's record 12 months post the recession ended in July of 2003. In a note to clients around that time (June 17/2004 to be precise), I wrote.."...we have been getting more good news on the booming US economy"...some of the economic data points that I referenced at the time included:

nowhere in that response did I see your answer to "who ran the Congress between 2001 and 2007 when there were two massive tax cuts, a massive expansion of entitlement spending, and the launching of two un-paid for wars"?

The answer of course, is "Republicans".


Being a Republicans means you get to choose your own reality

go65  posted on  2010-08-09   15:45:48 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#16. To: jwpegler (#14)

They created the first new entitlement since LBJ (Medicare prescription drugs); largest federal intrusion into the classroom in history (No Child Left Behind); largest pork barrel project ever (2002 highway bill); waste, fraud and abuse at record levels (according to the Heritage Foundation); a $1 trillion war with a country that never attacked us and wasn't a threat to us; the incompetent TSA; totalitarian legislation like the Patriot Act, on and on and on...

They turned a balance budget into huge deficits, collapsed the economy, and ended by handing out $700 billion to Wall Street financial firms who promptly used it to lavish bonuses on failed executives.

That's what happens when the GOP runs it all.

Just give them another chance, it will be different "this time".


Being a Republicans means you get to choose your own reality

go65  posted on  2010-08-09   15:46:46 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#17. To: no gnu taxes (#10)

housing starts strong at an annual rate of 2.12 million which surpasses previous years 1.85million, the most in 25 years.

Game over...

war  posted on  2010-08-09   16:05:00 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#18. To: war (#17)

* The housing market remains in the doldrums not responding to record gobs of stimulus money

game over

no gnu taxes  posted on  2010-08-09   16:14:01 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#19. To: war (#6)

hat said, the 2001 budget, Clinton's last, was in surplus.

Lies. Surplus only because Clinton was taking into the general fund the excess money that was coming into SSI.

Fucking lies from the biggest liar on Liberty's Flame.

Being a Democratic shill means you check your humanity at the door.

Nebuchadnezzar  posted on  2010-08-09   19:32:50 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#20. To: no gnu taxes (#2)

The deficits started with Clinton's exiting recession.

Clinton ran deficits. Sorry to break the news to you. He stole from SSI to make it appear he was running a surplus.

Being a Democratic shill means you check your humanity at the door.

Nebuchadnezzar  posted on  2010-08-09   19:41:28 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#21. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#19) (Edited)

Nope. Someone else who posts here occasionally uses that same lie all of the time, too.

It was in surplus without off budget revenues in 2001.

war  posted on  2010-08-09   19:50:32 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#22. To: no gnu taxes (#18)

The housing market absolutely benefited from the stim. You'd be hard pressed to find a consensus that would not point to the housing credit expiring and the resulting downturn in housing as being interdependent.

war  posted on  2010-08-09   19:59:27 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#23. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#20)

Clinton ran deficits. Sorry to break the news to you. He stole from SSI to make it appear he was running a surplus.

They all steal from SSI.

The irony is that 2 years before the supposed surplus occurred, Sinkboy was fighting the GOP Congress who was pushing for it, and Sinkboy was claiming it was irresponsible and couldn't be done.

no gnu taxes  posted on  2010-08-09   19:59:27 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#24. To: no gnu taxes (#23)

Bullshit.

war  posted on  2010-08-09   20:01:05 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#25. To: war (#24)

Absolutely true.

I guess you forgot the whole 5 year, 7 year argument.

no gnu taxes  posted on  2010-08-09   20:07:09 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#26. To: no gnu taxes (#25)

Bullshit.

war  posted on  2010-08-09   20:13:44 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#27. To: no gnu taxes (#23)

They all steal from SSI.

yes, they all stole, but the narration that Clinton had surpluses is bullshit. He stole.

Being a Democratic shill means you check your humanity at the door.

Nebuchadnezzar  posted on  2010-08-09   20:14:38 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#28. To: war (#21)

It was in surplus without off budget revenues in 2001.

So the 2001 budget....Clinton gets credit for that crap?

How much of a surplus was it?

And what of the other "clinton budgets"?

Being a Democratic shill means you check your humanity at the door.

Nebuchadnezzar  posted on  2010-08-09   20:20:30 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#29. To: war (#26)

In fact, in 1995, two years after that tax hike, the budget baseline submitted by the president's own Office of Management and Budget and the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office predicted $200 billion deficits for as far as the eye could see. The figure shows the Clinton deficit baseline. What changed this bleak outlook?

Newt Gingrich and company -- for all their faults -- have received virtually no credit for balancing the budget. Yet today's surplus is, in part, a byproduct of the GOP's single-minded crusade to end 30 years of red ink. Arguably, Gingrich's finest hour as Speaker came in March 1995 when he rallied the entire Republican House caucus behind the idea of eliminating the deficit within seven years.

We have a balanced budget today that is mostly a result of 1) an exceptionally strong economy that is creating gobs of new tax revenues and 2) a shrinking military budget. Social spending is still soaring and now costs more than $1 trillion.

Skeptics said it could not be done in seven years. The GOP did it in four.

Now let us contrast this with the Clinton fiscal record. Recall that it was the Clinton White House that fought Republicans every inch of the way in balancing the budget in 1995. When Republicans proposed their own balanced-budget plan, the White House waged a shameless Mediscare campaign to torpedo the plan -- a campaign that the Washington Post slammed as "pure demagoguery." It was Bill Clinton who, during the big budget fight in 1995, had to submit not one, not two, but five budgets until he begrudgingly matched the GOP's balanced-budget plan. In fact, during the height of the budget wars in the summer of 1995, the Clinton administration admitted that "balancing the budget is not one of our top priorities."

http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=5656

no gnu taxes  posted on  2010-08-09   20:39:48 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#30. To: war (#26)

Clinton baseline (left) vs actual (right)

1994 $203 $203

1995 175 164

1996 205 107

1997 210 22

1998 210 +60

* Congressional Budget Office forecast, April 1995.

no gnu taxes  posted on  2010-08-09   20:50:18 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#31. To: no gnu taxes (#29) (Edited)

In fact, in 1995, two years after that tax hike, the budget baseline submitted by the president's own Office of Management and Budget and the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office predicted $200 billion deficits for as far as the eye could see. The figure shows the Clinton deficit baseline. What changed this bleak outlook?

Chuckles...you love eating out of both sides of the trough Paddy Old Boy.

What were the projected baslines for the budget in 2001? Then in 2004?

war  posted on  2010-08-10   8:15:22 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#32. To: no gnu taxes (#30) (Edited)

What were the GDP estimates? That's what drives the revenue projections.

war  posted on  2010-08-10   8:16:16 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#33. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#28)

So the 2001 budget....Clinton gets credit for that crap?

Why wouldn't he?

war  posted on  2010-08-10   8:32:37 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#34. To: war (#33)

So the 2001 budget....Clinton gets credit for that crap?

Why wouldn't he?

Got ya. Just checking.

Care to answer my other question about how big were Clinton's deficits?

Being a Democratic shill means you check your humanity at the door.

Nebuchadnezzar  posted on  2010-08-10   9:45:54 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#35. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#34)

Care to answer my other question about how big were Clinton's deficits?

Historical Budget Tables [pdf]

war  posted on  2010-08-10   9:53:13 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#36. To: war (#35)

No confuse him with the numbers. His head might explode.

jwpegler  posted on  2010-08-10   10:01:45 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#37. To: jwpegler (#36)

No confuse him with the numbers. His head might explode.

If anyone gets confused with numbers, it's is you, my grammatically challenged friend.

Is English your second language?

Being a Democratic shill means you check your humanity at the door.

Nebuchadnezzar  posted on  2010-08-10   10:49:58 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#38. To: war (#35)

Yeah, no thanks. Not well laid out.

More obfuscation and misdirection from the king of said practices.

Being a Democratic shill means you check your humanity at the door.

Nebuchadnezzar  posted on  2010-08-10   10:57:09 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#39. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#38)

Yeah, no thanks. Not well laid out.

No one else seems to have your problem.

Thankfully...

war  posted on  2010-08-10   10:58:01 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#40. To: war (#39)

http://market-ticker.org/uploads/2010/Jul/debt-to-the-penny.png

Sadly, posting this image doesn't work like it does with jpeg.

Much better and puts to bed the lie of the Clinton surpluses.

Being a Democratic shill means you check your humanity at the door.

Nebuchadnezzar  posted on  2010-08-10   10:59:29 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#41. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#40)

You post a picture with 0 explanation and expect it to do what again?

war  posted on  2010-08-10   11:00:47 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  



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