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Title: After Expectations A Modest Improvement, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Crashes
Source:
zerohedge.com
URL Source: http://www.zerohedge.com
Published: Jul 26, 2010
Author: Tyler Durden
Post Date: 2010-07-26 16:40:39 by Nebuchadnezzar
Keywords: None
Views: 1725
Comments: 7
After Expectations A Modest Improvement, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Crashes To -21, From -4 Prior, Exp. Of -2.5 Tyler Durden's picture Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/26/2010 09:42 -0500 If you thought volatility in stocks was beyond ridiculous, we hope you have been keeping an eye out on what happens to the US economy when the central planning bureau takes over. Case in point: the Dallas Fed Manufacturing index of General Business Activity was just released, and it is a stunner: after coming in at -4 in June, and expectations were for a gradual improvement in July to -2.5, the actual released number was -21! And of course after the usual downward revisions as per page 1 of the Chinese data presentation manual, in which superfluous zeros for negative numbers are strongly encouraged to be eliminated , this will likely end up being something like -210 when it is revised next month. But the market does not care: after all it can pretend Americans are buying homes until next month's revision indicates that new homes sales in June were actually a negative (is it possible? who cares - not Cisco routers). From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Remains Sluggish Texas factory activity rebounded slightly in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key indicator of state manufacturing conditions, rose from –2 to 5, suggesting output expanded slightly in July after contracting in June. Several indexes for factory activity continued to fall in July. The new orders and growth rate of orders indexes pushed deeper into negative territory, indicating a further contraction of demand. The index for capacity utilization dipped to –1, its first negative reading in nine months. The shipments index stabilized in July, rising from –9 to –1, with nearly equal shares of respondents noting an increase or decrease. The general business activity index fell sharply to –21, its lowest level since July 2009. Thirty-one percent of firms reported a worsening of activity, up from 22 percent in June. The company outlook index also fell to a 12-month low, as only 13 percent of manufacturers said their outlook had improved over the previous month, compared with 24 percent who said it had worsened. The employment index edged up and was positive for the fifth consecutive month, with 20 percent of firms reporting new hires. The wages and benefits index also rose, but overall wage pressures remained minimal, as 90 percent of respondents noted no change in compensation costs. The hours worked index dipped into negative territory, with 23 percent of manufacturers reporting a decrease in the average employee workweek. The index for raw materials prices fell from 30 in June to 12 in July, suggesting the upward pressure on raw materials prices continued to moderate. Two-thirds of manufacturers reported no change in input costs, the highest share in six months. Downward pressure on finished goods prices intensified again in July, driving the index further into negative territory. The future raw materials prices index remained positive but slid to its lowest level in a year, while the future finished goods prices index fell to zero. Optimism regarding firms’ six-month outlook continued to wane in July, although the indexes remained positive. The future production, capacity utilization and shipments indexes fell again this month, while the future indexes for new orders and growth rate of orders inched up but remained below the levels seen earlier this year. The future general business activity index decreased but remained in positive territory. The future company outlook index moved down from 22 to 16, with 32 percent of respondents expecting improved conditions six months from now. The Dallas Fed conducts the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey monthly to obtain a timely assessment of the state’s factory activity. Data were collected July 13–21, and 99 Texas manufacturers responded to the survey. Firms are asked whether output, employment, orders, prices and other indicators increased, decreased or remained unchanged over the previous month. Survey responses are used to calculate an index for each indicator. Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When the share of firms reporting an increase exceeds the share of firms reporting a decrease, the index will be greater than zero, suggesting the indicator has increased over the prior month. If the share of firms reporting a decrease exceeds the share reporting an increase, the index will be below zero, suggesting the indicator has decreased over the prior month. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase is equal to the number of firms reporting a decrease.
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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 4.
#3. To: All, War, Go65 (#0)
Gee, funny how War and GO65 failed to chime in here on this topic. Go figure.
There's nothing to chime in on. Fed indexes are useless.
#5. To: war (#4)
Yet, if it was a positive number, you'd be posting it on LF for all the world to see.
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#4. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#3)
Replies to Comment # 4. There's nothing to chime in on. Fed indexes are useless.
End Trace Mode for Comment # 4.
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