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Foreign Invaders crisis cost $150B in 2023, forcing some areas to cut police and fire services: report Israel kills head of Hezbollah Intelligence. Status: Not Logged In; Sign In Obama Wars See other Obama Wars Articles Title: The Scariest Unemployment Graph I've Seen Yet Source: The Atlantic URL Source: http://www.theatlantic.com/business ... ment-graph-ive-seen-yet/60086/ Published: Jul 21, 2010 Author: Derek Thompson Post Date: 2010-07-21 11:41:06 by Badeye Keywords: None Views: 48723 Comments: 64 The Scariest Unemployment Graph I've Seen Yet Jul 20 2010, 12:00 PM ET | Comment The median duration of unemployment is higher today than any time in the last 50 years. That's an understatement. It is more than twice as high today than any time in the last 50 years. OK, you're saying, but what does this mean? Does it mean we must increase the duration of unemployment benefits to protect this new class of unemployed, or does it mean we need to stop subsidizing joblessness? Does it mean we need to expand federal retraining programs, or does it mean federal retraining programs aren't working? Does it mean we need more stimulus, more state aid, more infrastructure projects, more public works ... or does it mean it's time to stop everything, stand back and let business be business? You're going to find smart people make a case for all six of the above public policy directions. (I tend to side with the first of each coupling.) It's hard to know for sure how to design public policy for historically unique crises precisely because they are historical orphans, without precedent to show us the right way from the wrong. One of my first reactions to this graph was: Surely this is why we don't have to worry about inflation for a very, very long time. However, here's evidence that despite the historically inverse relationship between inflation and joblessness, "the long-term unemployed put less downward pressure on inflation." Ultimately, this is a graph that should humble policy makers more than it should scare them into confidently arguing they know exactly how to fix it. Post Comment   Private Reply   Ignore Thread   Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 48. #8. To: Badeye (#0) (Edited) The U.S. taxes investment (capital gains), productive activity (second highest corporate tax rate in the world), and jobs (the payroll tax). We also subside inefficient uses of capital (the home mortgage deduction). In addition, we also have among the most complicated, contradictory and onerous regulations in the world. On top that, the federal and state governments are crowding out the credit markets in a futile attempt to keep "promises" that were made by dead politicians 40 to 80 years ago. Somehow, leftists are perplexed about why the economy is in the toilet. They were perplexed during the Carter administration too, telling us that 8% unemployment was the new normal. Sorry, but Reagan and Clinton demonstrated how nonsensical that was. We're in this dire situation today because Bush and Obama are socialist nincompoops who dramatically grew government spending and debt. I'll tell you what we need to do... First, put government on a diet. A great place to start is with lavish pension programs for government employees. In many states, pension programs cost more than education. Who has a pension program in the private sector anymore? I don't. Do you? Why should we risk our economic future so that bureaucrats can retire to Florida and play golf for 25 years??? Second, we need to stop taxing investment, production and jobs. Let's implement some smart consumptions taxes instead, including a broad-based national sales tax. Yes, we can tax the consumption of fossil fuels, tobacco, booze, luxury items, and yes marijuana at a higher rate. Third, we need to prohibit the states from granting monopolies and restricting competition in areas where a competitive market would exist without government interference. This includes healthcare, education, garbage collection, fire fighting, and much more. If we turn America into the best place to invest and produce and we'll have more job opportunities than we'll know what to do with. Otherwise, we'll continue to sink into the abyss. jwpegler  posted on  2010-07-21   13:38:37 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #12. To: jwpegler (#8) The U.S. taxes investment (capital gains), productive activity (second highest corporate tax rate in the world), and jobs (the payroll tax). It doesn't tax investments. It taxes exactly what it says it taxes...gains. Most corporations, because they are small businesses, don't pay anywhere near the top rate. GE had an effective tax rate of -11% last year. Again, it's not the rate it's what you actually pay. Third, we need to prohibit the states from granting monopolies and restricting competition in areas where a competitive market would exist without government interference. This includes healthcare, education, garbage collection, fire fighting, and much more. Throughout the history of the US, the "competitive market" has shown time and time again that it wants to maximize it's profits for minimal services. We ended up with compulsory public education because Americans were becoming dumber than the Indians they'd supplanted. war  posted on  2010-07-21   18:42:55 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #14. To: war (#12) (Edited) GE had an effective tax rate of -11% last year Here's why: A.) The U.S. has the second highest corporate rates in the world (slightly below Japan). The result: Global companies sluff off as many of their global opperating costs as they can in the U.S. and take their profits in low tax countries. B.) The U.S. is one of only 5 countries in the entire world (out of over 220 countries) that tax earnings that are repatriated from overseas. The result? Most companies never bring their overseas earnings back home to invest here because they would be taxed again if they did so. The government's policy is completely counterproductive, without any redeeming value at all. Of course, companies that only do business in America (which are the vast majority of American companies) are stuck with the entire huge bill, which is also counterproductive. jwpegler  posted on  2010-07-21   18:52:11 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #16. To: jwpegler (#14) Of course, companies that only do business in America (which are the vast majority of American companies) are stuck with the entire huge bill, which is also counterproductive. What those companies need is more customers, not tax breaks. lucysmom  posted on  2010-07-21   23:08:42 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #17. To: lucysmom, jwpegler (#16) What those companies need is more customers, not tax breaks. Yes, but you cheapass liberals prefer to buy Chinese and other cheap imported crap. Ibluafartsky  posted on  2010-07-21   23:23:34 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #18. To: Ibluafartsky (#17) Yes, but you cheapass liberals prefer to buy Chinese and other cheap imported crap. Dude, the creators figured out they could live like kings if they didn't pay their fellow countrymen sufficient wages to keep them well, fed, clothed, and living indoors. lucysmom  posted on  2010-07-22   0:52:03 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #19. To: lucysmom (#18) Dude, the creators figured out they could live like kings if they didn't pay their fellow countrymen sufficient wages to keep them well, fed, clothed, and living indoors. What a bunch of horse shit. The anti-business attitude of you and people like you is why the country is in the toilet today. jwpegler  posted on  2010-07-22   8:43:54 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #20. To: jwpegler (#19) What a bunch of horse shit. You're of the mind that labor costs are not a factor in exporting jobs? war  posted on  2010-07-22   8:45:20 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #26. To: war (#20) You're of the mind that labor costs are not a factor in exporting jobs? Eliminate all taxes on business and there is still no way the American worker can compete with the Chinese worker and pay his own way through life. The average total labor compensation for a Chinese manufacturing worker is 57 cents per hour, with many making far less than that, benefits included. Here's an interesting little factoid. Moreover, taxes are rarely paid, in part because of the legacy of the Maoist period from 1949 to 1978, during which time taxes were not collected. Lookie there - no taxes collected under Maoism! If the radical right claims the progressive income tax is Marxist, could it then be said Laffer's recent suggestion that all federal tax collection be suspended is Maoist? Maybe taxes are literally the price of freedom. www.manufacturingnews.com/news/06/0502/art1.html lucysmom  posted on  2010-07-22   9:51:52 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #35. To: lucysmom (#26) (Edited) Eliminate all taxes on business and there is still no way the American worker can compete with the Chinese worker and pay his own way through life. The average total labor compensation for a Chinese manufacturing worker is 57 cents per hour, with many making far less than that, benefits included. A computer programmer in the U.S. with 2 to 4 years of experience will make between $50 to $60 an hour including benefits. A similar programmer in India will make at most $20 an hour. It sounds like a big difference, but it's not. Here's why: A.) Indian programmers tend to be less productive and less creative than their American counterparts, so you can't just compare hourly rates. You have to compare rates against output. B.) India is 12 1/2 time zones away from Seattle, so it's a pain in the ass to manage a team there. You wind up doubling your supervision with an onshore project manager and an offshore project manager for each project. Instead of one person managing a team of 6 to 10 people, you need two people to manage a team of 6 to 10 people. The onshore project manager has to have a nightly call at 8PM PST to talk to the Indian team. They have to do this every night to keep the project moving. A weekly call doesn't work. C.) Indian public utilities are generally unreliable, so you have to install gasoline generators for backup power due to the frequent power outages. D.) Periodic trips to India are also required to keep the teams motivated. We go once a quarter. From Seattle to Mumbai, it's 24 hours in the air, plus 7 hours of layovers in D.C. and Frankfurt. It's too grueling to fly coach to India so we have to buy business class tickets ($5,000 to $7,000 a pop). The hotels in Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai, and Hyderabad are quire expensive -- up to $500 a night. You have to have a private driver in India because the traffic is a nightmare -- dirt roads in the middle of big cities, few traffic lights, whole families of 4 to 5 people zipping in and out of traffic on a single motor scooter. All of this quickly adds a ton of cost to the $20 hour you think you are paying. So, why are we there? Originally because of shortages of qualified people in the U.S. The number of kids graduating with computer science degrees in the U.S. has been dropping since I graduated in 1987. Combine that with the severe restrictions on H1Bs, and we had no choice but to go offshore in the early 2000s. If we didn't open in India, we would have been driven out of business and our high paid American employees might be out of jobs right now. Of course, with the bad economy we are able to hire programmers onshore today, but as soon as the economy heats up we're back to shortages again because American kids are taking enough math and science in school. There are many reasons why America companies go onshore. In manufacturing, taxes and regulations play a big part in the decision. In information technology, shortages of skilled workers in the U.S. are a key driving factor. I know that you'd rather scapegoat evil corporations, but this is the reality of the situation. If you want to keep American jobs in America, we have to do two things: A.) Make American the best place to invest, create new businesses, and hire people by lowering or eliminating taxes on investment, production, and employment, along with streamlining our complicated system of government regulations. B.) Create people that are actually employable. To do this, we need to fix the broken government monopoly schools. Unfortunately, this is will NEVER happen because the Democrat Party is owned by the teachers unions. jwpegler  posted on  2010-07-22   11:17:13 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #48. To: jwpegler (#35) D.) Periodic trips to India are also required to keep the teams motivated. We go once a quarter. From Seattle to Mumbai, it's 24 hours in the air, plus 7 hours of layovers in D.C. and Frankfurt. It's too grueling to fly coach to India so we have to buy business class tickets ($5,000 to $7,000 a pop). The hotels in Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai, and Hyderabad are quire expensive -- up to $500 a night. You have to have a private driver in India because the traffic is a nightmare Its been a long time since I've been in India, but even so, $500 a night seems a bit high. Here's a site that rates hotels and posts cost for Mumbai. www.hotelstravel.com/Asia/IN/Mumbai/index.html I'm not familiar with the Oberoi in Mumbai, but as Remember, the Oberoi in New Delhi was very nice. Mumbai seems to be the most expensive place to stay on your list. Traffic is a nightmare in India. I was lucky enough to have a car and driver provided by the Bank of India so I don't know how much that costs - however I can't imagine its much by US standards. Of course taxis are avaiable too and are pretty inexpensive. Either you're exaggerating your expenses or living very large in India. So, why are we there? Originally because of shortages of qualified people in the U.S. The number of kids graduating with computer science degrees in the U.S. has been dropping since I graduated in 1987. Combine that with the severe restrictions on H1Bs, and we had no choice but to go offshore in the early 2000s. If we didn't open in India, we would have been driven out of business and our high paid American employees might be out of jobs right now. I live in Silicon Valley and have worked for high tech companies. In the late 80s, companies were bringing in software engineers from India, putting them up in group homes and paying them considerably less than their American counterparts. It was a big issue here. B.) Create people that are actually employable. To do this, we need to fix the broken government monopoly schools. Unfortunately, this is will NEVER happen because the Democrat Party is owned by the teachers unions. While the Republican party is bent on destroying the public school system. Somehow other countries are able to do a good job educating their children in public schools. Perhaps if we didn't approach education like driving a car up hill with one foot on the gas and the other on the brake, we could do a good job too. lucysmom  posted on  2010-07-22   12:59:36 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   Replies to Comment # 48. #49. To: lucysmom (#48) While the Republican party is bent on destroying the public school system. It needs to be destroyed, and rebuilt. Simply based on its decreasing performance, which is measurable. Badeye  posted on  2010-07-22 13:03:50 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #64. To: lucysmom (#48) Either you're exaggerating your expenses or living very large in India. Mumbai is a different story than Bangalore. Bangalore hotels tend to be booked months in advance and are very experience. jwpegler  posted on  2010-07-24 08:44:21 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   End Trace Mode for Comment # 48. Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest

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