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Title: The Scariest Unemployment Graph I've Seen Yet
Source:
The Atlantic
URL Source: http://www.theatlantic.com/business ... ment-graph-ive-seen-yet/60086/
Published: Jul 21, 2010
Author: Derek Thompson
Post Date: 2010-07-21 11:41:06 by Badeye
Keywords: None
Views: 48684
Comments: 64
The Scariest Unemployment Graph I've Seen Yet Jul 20 2010, 12:00 PM ET | Comment The median duration of unemployment is higher today than any time in the last 50 years. That's an understatement. It is more than twice as high today than any time in the last 50 years. OK, you're saying, but what does this mean? Does it mean we must increase the duration of unemployment benefits to protect this new class of unemployed, or does it mean we need to stop subsidizing joblessness? Does it mean we need to expand federal retraining programs, or does it mean federal retraining programs aren't working? Does it mean we need more stimulus, more state aid, more infrastructure projects, more public works ... or does it mean it's time to stop everything, stand back and let business be business? You're going to find smart people make a case for all six of the above public policy directions. (I tend to side with the first of each coupling.) It's hard to know for sure how to design public policy for historically unique crises precisely because they are historical orphans, without precedent to show us the right way from the wrong. One of my first reactions to this graph was: Surely this is why we don't have to worry about inflation for a very, very long time. However, here's evidence that despite the historically inverse relationship between inflation and joblessness, "the long-term unemployed put less downward pressure on inflation." Ultimately, this is a graph that should humble policy makers more than it should scare them into confidently arguing they know exactly how to fix it.
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#1. To: mcgowanjm (#0)
Phillips Curve redux. He's about as discredited as Laffer is, eh, James?
;} Unemployment is violence made visible. My thesis for the Ph.D would be: Is it better for your Employment prospects to be a Debt Indentured worker or a slave? " In other words: even though those people who will not be able to pay for insurance -- and who thus may be subject to penalties for failing to comply with the mandate -- may desperately need those "better subsidies," they won't get them "even if" those "better subsidies" "made sense." In still other words: too bad you won't be able to pay for insurance, too bad you might be fined (and won't be able to pay the fines, either), too bad you might even go to jail. We could help you, but we won't. And we won't help you because it's more important for us to have our symbol of political power.
Mine would be: IF You Put Your Right Foot In AND Put Your Right Foot OUT are you REALLY Doing the Hokie Pokie?
That's the TITLE! Damn!! No wonder I didn't get that doctorate. You gotta have the hook. 8D
There's three guys at Pitt just dying to read this...
The story of my life. But I get the PhD (they probably don't understand it but it sounds 'esoterically principled'. I'd throw in 'Elite Deviance' and 'Extinction Burst' and I've got an Ivory Tower job for life. At UNLV and then turn it into 'Beating the BlackJack Dealer'!!!! Why didn't I think of this at age 21. Damn. 8D
I always thought I'd be driving a Good Humor Truck for a living....
The U.S. taxes investment (capital gains), productive activity (second highest corporate tax rate in the world), and jobs (the payroll tax). We also subside inefficient uses of capital (the home mortgage deduction). In addition, we also have among the most complicated, contradictory and onerous regulations in the world. On top that, the federal and state governments are crowding out the credit markets in a futile attempt to keep "promises" that were made by dead politicians 40 to 80 years ago. Somehow, leftists are perplexed about why the economy is in the toilet. They were perplexed during the Carter administration too, telling us that 8% unemployment was the new normal. Sorry, but Reagan and Clinton demonstrated how nonsensical that was. We're in this dire situation today because Bush and Obama are socialist nincompoops who dramatically grew government spending and debt. I'll tell you what we need to do... First, put government on a diet. A great place to start is with lavish pension programs for government employees. In many states, pension programs cost more than education. Who has a pension program in the private sector anymore? I don't. Do you? Why should we risk our economic future so that bureaucrats can retire to Florida and play golf for 25 years??? Second, we need to stop taxing investment, production and jobs. Let's implement some smart consumptions taxes instead, including a broad-based national sales tax. Yes, we can tax the consumption of fossil fuels, tobacco, booze, luxury items, and yes marijuana at a higher rate. Third, we need to prohibit the states from granting monopolies and restricting competition in areas where a competitive market would exist without government interference. This includes healthcare, education, garbage collection, fire fighting, and much more. If we turn America into the best place to invest and produce and we'll have more job opportunities than we'll know what to do with. Otherwise, we'll continue to sink into the abyss.
I agree completely with everything you wrote. Its the economy, stupid.....unless you are a liberal President with a liberal Congress. Maybe we just need a disasterous couple of Presidents ala Nixon/Ford/Carter or Bush/Owe-bama to get a Reagan or whoever will be hired in 2012.
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
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When Odinga and the Oilers came in , the line started going straight up.
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It doesn't tax investments. It taxes exactly what it says it taxes...gains. Most corporations, because they are small businesses, don't pay anywhere near the top rate. GE had an effective tax rate of -11% last year. Again, it's not the rate it's what you actually pay. Third, we need to prohibit the states from granting monopolies and restricting competition in areas where a competitive market would exist without government interference. This includes healthcare, education, garbage collection, fire fighting, and much more. Throughout the history of the US, the "competitive market" has shown time and time again that it wants to maximize it's profits for minimal services. We ended up with compulsory public education because Americans were becoming dumber than the Indians they'd supplanted.
You, a Ph.D? How fookin hilarious! Why not one on "peak oil", mcclown?
Here's why: A.) The U.S. has the second highest corporate rates in the world (slightly below Japan). The result: Global companies sluff off as many of their global opperating costs as they can in the U.S. and take their profits in low tax countries. B.) The U.S. is one of only 5 countries in the entire world (out of over 220 countries) that tax earnings that are repatriated from overseas. The result? Most companies never bring their overseas earnings back home to invest here because they would be taxed again if they did so. The government's policy is completely counterproductive, without any redeeming value at all. Of course, companies that only do business in America (which are the vast majority of American companies) are stuck with the entire huge bill, which is also counterproductive.
I always thought I'd be driving a Good Humor Truck for a living.... war posted on 2010-07-21 12:27:49 ET Reply Trace Private Reply Had you ever gotten above that magic IQ threshold, the dream job would have been attainable. Alas.....didn't happen.....freeing you up to post leftard shit 17 hours a day on the only non-communist site that'd tolerate your stupid ass. Fucker. Spit.......
Death to everybody who does not get outta my way. Below is positively the most hilariously BS overflowing comment from the resident obamunist spent-condom EVER:) "This is WHY I left the GOP in the mid 90's. ." Dwarf
What those companies need is more customers, not tax breaks.
Yes, but you cheapass liberals prefer to buy Chinese and other cheap imported crap.
Dude, the creators figured out they could live like kings if they didn't pay their fellow countrymen sufficient wages to keep them well, fed, clothed, and living indoors.
What a bunch of horse shit. The anti-business attitude of you and people like you is why the country is in the toilet today.
You're of the mind that labor costs are not a factor in exporting jobs?
No, its the anti-American attitude of business that's put the country in the toilet. Merchants have no country. The mere spot they stand on does not constitute so strong an attachment as that from which they draw their gains. Thomas Jefferson
Labor costs are indeed a factor in determining where to invest, but so is political stability and the rule of law, i.e., the risk of political corruption, revolutions, and nationalizations are part of the decision process too. If we had the best business climate in the world, very few jobs would get exported to places like China and Mexico because we have one of the most politically stable countries on earth. The lack of jobs today is primarily (but not exclusively) due to government tax and regulatory policies.
Dude...that statement betrays a naivete that, frankly, coming from you, shocks the shit out of me.
Furthermore, if we had the best business climate in the world not only would few jobs be exported, a whole bunch of jobs would be imported to the U.S. due to increased foreign investment.
I'm a Vice President at a global company. I know how these decisions are made because I am part of making them. Please tell us all what you do for a living and then we'll see who is naive.
Eliminate all taxes on business and there is still no way the American worker can compete with the Chinese worker and pay his own way through life. The average total labor compensation for a Chinese manufacturing worker is 57 cents per hour, with many making far less than that, benefits included. Here's an interesting little factoid. Moreover, taxes are rarely paid, in part because of the legacy of the Maoist period from 1949 to 1978, during which time taxes were not collected. Lookie there - no taxes collected under Maoism! If the radical right claims the progressive income tax is Marxist, could it then be said Laffer's recent suggestion that all federal tax collection be suspended is Maoist? Maybe taxes are literally the price of freedom.
China seems to be good enough to meet those requirements. All of this makes for a highly competitive manufacturing enterprise that has turned China into a global juggernaut, Banister argues. Low-cost workers and tax avoidance are only a few of the advantages Chinese firms have over foreign rivals. The huge size of China's market is also driving growth. The country has a thriving middle class and people want to buy manufactured goods. China also has convenient logistics located in its coastal regions, and land prices are low. "Many domestic manufacturing concerns in China never had to buy the land for their factories," writes Banister. Land prices are reported to have declined by 70 percent in major urban areas since 1993. The country also offers financial and tax incentives, tax holidays and a favorable currency for export. Its political and economic systems are relatively stable compared to other developing nations.
Thanks WS.
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
What color is the sky on your planet? This is like th eleftwingnut rant that 'Republicans don't want clean air!'. The American GOVERNMENT's current anti business attitude is whats killing the economy currently. Look around. Sheesh.
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
You can discern who actually creates jobs and runs company's in these forums quite easily.
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
(eyes rolling) And yet, people like you don't flock there...why is that?
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
If you got the real Reagan rather than the mythical Reagan you remember, you'd be sorely disappointed.
Cause I ain't no global business, just one of the peeps.
I'm a Vice President of Fixed Income Sales @ Wall Street's 3rd largest interbank broker. I have 25 years of finace experience. 23 of those years have been spent either trading or covering macro-hedged/laeveraged funds, Corporate treasurers, CTA's and 2a7 funds. If the tenor of a government was a qualification for not shipping jobs overseas, then not one of the Asian Tigers would have had a growing economy for the last 30 years and there'd be no such phrase as "emerging markets".
A computer programmer in the U.S. with 2 to 4 years of experience will make between $50 to $60 an hour including benefits. A similar programmer in India will make at most $20 an hour. It sounds like a big difference, but it's not. Here's why: A.) Indian programmers tend to be less productive and less creative than their American counterparts, so you can't just compare hourly rates. You have to compare rates against output. B.) India is 12 1/2 time zones away from Seattle, so it's a pain in the ass to manage a team there. You wind up doubling your supervision with an onshore project manager and an offshore project manager for each project. Instead of one person managing a team of 6 to 10 people, you need two people to manage a team of 6 to 10 people. The onshore project manager has to have a nightly call at 8PM PST to talk to the Indian team. They have to do this every night to keep the project moving. A weekly call doesn't work. C.) Indian public utilities are generally unreliable, so you have to install gasoline generators for backup power due to the frequent power outages. D.) Periodic trips to India are also required to keep the teams motivated. We go once a quarter. From Seattle to Mumbai, it's 24 hours in the air, plus 7 hours of layovers in D.C. and Frankfurt. It's too grueling to fly coach to India so we have to buy business class tickets ($5,000 to $7,000 a pop). The hotels in Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai, and Hyderabad are quire expensive -- up to $500 a night. You have to have a private driver in India because the traffic is a nightmare -- dirt roads in the middle of big cities, few traffic lights, whole families of 4 to 5 people zipping in and out of traffic on a single motor scooter. All of this quickly adds a ton of cost to the $20 hour you think you are paying. So, why are we there? Originally because of shortages of qualified people in the U.S. The number of kids graduating with computer science degrees in the U.S. has been dropping since I graduated in 1987. Combine that with the severe restrictions on H1Bs, and we had no choice but to go offshore in the early 2000s. If we didn't open in India, we would have been driven out of business and our high paid American employees might be out of jobs right now. Of course, with the bad economy we are able to hire programmers onshore today, but as soon as the economy heats up we're back to shortages again because American kids are taking enough math and science in school. There are many reasons why America companies go onshore. In manufacturing, taxes and regulations play a big part in the decision. In information technology, shortages of skilled workers in the U.S. are a key driving factor. I know that you'd rather scapegoat evil corporations, but this is the reality of the situation. If you want to keep American jobs in America, we have to do two things: A.) Make American the best place to invest, create new businesses, and hire people by lowering or eliminating taxes on investment, production, and employment, along with streamlining our complicated system of government regulations. B.) Create people that are actually employable. To do this, we need to fix the broken government monopoly schools. Unfortunately, this is will NEVER happen because the Democrat Party is owned by the teachers unions.
Bull. I can point to a company that laid off a dozen programmers and outsourced to India and then HIRED my brother in law back as a consultant and sent him to India to TRAIN and oversee the EXACT function of what was his NY department. When he was there, he met MANY Americans who had been re-hired by their companies to do the same which was, in essence, to re-establish the SAME department. What kind of a degree does one need for answering a phone call and doing data entry? So, while your company may have done it differently, from what I have heard and read, you're the exception. You may have eventually discovered that the grass wasn't greener on the other side, but to claim that IT and programming departments were eviscerated because of a lack of programmers smells like barn funk.
Another piece of mis-direction. In the 80's, as the US moved away from the mainframe technology and languages [COBOL, BASIC, ETC] to desktop [VB, C, C+], the training became more boutique. This is how Bloomberg made his fortune, btw. He was a couple of years ahead of the curve. My wife had a psych degree but got a job on Wall Street in Trades Processing. In 1986, they sent her to learn C and her career took off after only a three month night course in C programming.
That statistic is way out of date. Manufacturing wages average about $3 an hour in Beijing and Shanghai. Even textile workers, who tend to be paid much less than people employed in heavy manufacturing make an average of $1.84 an hour. Like India, Chinese wages are escalating fast (25% to 40% a year) because demand is outstripping supply.
Those were the days. Companies actually paying to have their employees trained. Once they figured out how much cheaper is was to just outsource the jobs to people receiving no benefits, who could be disposed of at no cost, it was all over.
We've downsized corporate liability to the point where it's a joke. We've gone to war for American corporations. Corporations want citizenship. Let's see that they can behave as good AMERICAN citizens first.
When she came to Pru, where I met her, she had already been sent for training in VB and C+. The fact is worker displacement due to outsourcing rather than qualification was the rule not the exception.
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#2. To: war (#1)
#3. To: mcgowanjm (#2)
#4. To: war (#3)
IF You Put Your Right Foot In AND Put Your Right Foot OUT are you REALLY Doing the Hokie Pokie?
#5. To: mcgowanjm (#4)
#6. To: war (#5)
There's three guys at Pitt just dying to read this...
#7. To: mcgowanjm (#6)
#8. To: Badeye (#0)
(Edited)
#9. To: jwpegler (#8)
#10. To: Badeye (#0)
Toss: ADL,CAIR and the Vatican into the pit they belong in.
#11. To: Badeye (#9)
Toss: ADL,CAIR and the Vatican into the pit they belong in.
#12. To: jwpegler (#8)
The U.S. taxes investment (capital gains), productive activity (second highest corporate tax rate in the world), and jobs (the payroll tax).
#13. To: mcgowanjm (#2)
My thesis for the Ph.D
#14. To: war (#12)
(Edited)
GE had an effective tax rate of -11% last year
#15. To: Dwarf (#7)
#7. To: mcgowanjm (#6)
#16. To: jwpegler (#14)
Of course, companies that only do business in America (which are the vast majority of American companies) are stuck with the entire huge bill, which is also counterproductive.
#17. To: lucysmom, jwpegler (#16)
What those companies need is more customers, not tax breaks.
#18. To: Ibluafartsky (#17)
Yes, but you cheapass liberals prefer to buy Chinese and other cheap imported crap.
#19. To: lucysmom (#18)
Dude, the creators figured out they could live like kings if they didn't pay their fellow countrymen sufficient wages to keep them well, fed, clothed, and living indoors.
#20. To: jwpegler (#19)
What a bunch of horse shit.
#21. To: jwpegler (#19)
What a bunch of horse shit. The anti-business attitude of you and people like you is why the country is in the toilet today.
#22. To: war (#20)
You're of the mind that labor costs are not a factor in exporting jobs?
#23. To: jwpegler (#22)
Labor costs are indeed a factor in determining where to invest, but so is political stability and the rule of law, i.e., the risk of political corruption, revolutions, and nationalizations are part of the decision process too.
#24. To: war (#20)
#25. To: war (#23)
(Edited)
Dude...that statement betrays a naivete that, frankly, coming from you, shocks the shit out of me.
#26. To: war (#20)
You're of the mind that labor costs are not a factor in exporting jobs?
#27. To: jwpegler (#22)
Labor costs are indeed a factor in determining where to invest, but so is political stability and the rule of law, i.e., the risk of political corruption, revolutions, and nationalizations are part of the decision process too.
#28. To: WhiteSands (#10)
#29. To: lucysmom (#21)
No, its the anti-American attitude of business that's put the country in the toilet.
#30. To: jwpegler (#25)
#31. To: lucysmom (#27)
China seems to be good enough to meet those requirements.
#32. To: Badeye (#9)
Maybe we just need a disasterous couple of Presidents ala Nixon/Ford/Carter or Bush/Owe-bama to get a Reagan or whoever will be hired in 2012.
#33. To: Badeye (#31)
And yet, people like you don't flock there...why is that?
#34. To: jwpegler (#25)
(Edited)
Please tell us all what you do for a living and then we'll see who is naive.
#35. To: lucysmom (#26)
(Edited)
Eliminate all taxes on business and there is still no way the American worker can compete with the Chinese worker and pay his own way through life. The average total labor compensation for a Chinese manufacturing worker is 57 cents per hour, with many making far less than that, benefits included.
#36. To: jwpegler (#35)
(Edited)
Originally because of shortages of qualified people in the U.S.
#37. To: jwpegler (#35)
(Edited)
The number of kids graduating with computer science degrees in the U.S. has been dropping since I graduated in 1987.
#38. To: lucysmom (#26)
(Edited)
he average total labor compensation for a Chinese manufacturing worker is 57 cents per hour
#39. To: war (#37)
n 1986, the sent her to learn C and her career took off after only a three month night course in C programming.
"To suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous liberals,
or to quit halfterm, and by opposing, rake in speaking fees." - ShakesPalin
#40. To: jwpegler (#24)
Furthermore, if we had the best business climate in the world...
#41. To: Skip Intro (#39)
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