Obama Wars
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Title: Watch the Obama reelect numbers
Source:
Politico
URL Source: http://dyn.politico.com/printstory. ... 2C6-18FE-70B2-A8A4383F8DA0FFDA
Published: Jul 19, 2010
Author: Mark Penn
Post Date: 2010-07-19 16:18:29 by Badeye
Keywords: None
Views: 12031
Comments: 19
Watch the Obama reelect numbers By: Mark Penn July 18, 2010 10:17 PM EDT By far, the most alarming numbers this poll presents for President Barack Obama are the reelection figures; against a generic Republican candidate, he loses by 5 points, 37-42. In general, when an incumbent’s reelect numbers fall below 50 percent, it’s a sign of trouble to come — and Obama’s inability to break even 40 percent may be the most telling indicator to come out of these data. Click here for full poll results Americans like Obama — despite nearly 10 percent unemployment and two ongoing wars, his 49 percent favorable rating remains much stronger than some of the low points hit by Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. But what is surprising is the 11-point gulf between his favorable (48 percent) and reelect ratings. This suggests a lot of voters are saying, “I like him personally” but not “I would vote for him again.” And this is the heart of the issue — Obama is managing one legislative victory after another, yet his poll numbers keep sinking everywhere except with D.C. elites. He is now the D.C. outsider president whose strongest ratings are with D.C. insiders — they respect the bills he has gotten passed. But outside the Beltway, Obama suffers from the perception that he lacks the strength and leadership to deal with our biggest problems — unemployment, deficits and the two wars. And many believe he has moved to the left, abandoning the center to embrace a return to Big Government. Generally, his lowest support continues to come from the factions who’ve been reluctant about Obama from the start; the reelect numbers fall as voter age increases and rise with voter education levels. Only 27 percent of those age 55-75 would vote to reelect the president, versus 45 percent of 18-to-34-year-olds and 36 percent of those between 35 and 54. Only 31 percent of those with a high school education would give him a second term, compared with 40 percent of college grads. Also dangerous is the fact that he’s down among independents by 7 points; only 26 percent would reelect him, with 33 percent throwing their weight behind the Republican candidate. Some good news for the administration is that Obama is beating any of the real-world Republicans out there right now. His strongest showing is against Sarah Palin; in a head-to-head match, he gets 48 percent, driven by a strong vote from women. Palin is the kind of highly polarizing figure that people accused Hillary Clinton of being — only Palin is truly polarizing. Her nomination would probably doom the Republican Party and might even give rise to third-party candidates. She has a following that fuels her speeches and books but not a broad constituency. But the other warning sign here is that Obama does not break 40 percent against other likely contenders, some of whom are known by very few voters. His numbers are stuck in the high 30s against Mitt Romney (the closest contender, who’s already within 4 points of Obama) Tim Pawlenty, Mike Huckabee and Haley Barbour. If these contenders become actual candidates, they still have a chance to shape their image and tell the story they want voters to hear, driving up their support; by contrast, after four years in office, perceptions of and support for Obama will be pretty well fixed. Of course, he can take some solace from his Democratic predecessor. President Bill Clinton was also facing reelection numbers in the high 30s in July 1994, and while that accurately foretold a disastrous midterm season for the Democrats, he was reelected comfortably two years later. In many ways Clinton faced the opposite problem from Obama: People had personal questions about him but came to love the job he did as president. Obama still has a lot of time left to turn it around, but these reelect numbers are the most significant warning sign he is facing today.
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#1. To: Badeye (#0)
Too bad that there is no such thing as a generic rep. candidate. The real ones - the ones with names, faces and records, will be torn to shreds. By friend and foe alike. Zero probably won't have to lift a finger.
If I could, I would. We'll see. I'm more interested in the November election results, then watching to see if Hillary resigns at the end of the year.
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
Exactly, here's how he stacks up in the latest Politico poll against real candidates: 2012 President 48% Obama, 36% Palin 39% Obama, 35% Romney 39% Obama, 21% Pawlenty 39% Obama, 35% Huckabee 39% Obama, 21% Barbour
Palin, Romney and Huckster (who do the best) probably have the best name recognition to the general population. So I interpret those matchups against Zero as another way of saying "none of the above". The others don't have as much name recognition. BTW - you never answered my question.
If I could, I would. If this disastrous administration continues taking us on a downward plunge, Hillary will be the dim candidate in 2012. That is, IF there is anything remaining of the USA.
Sneakypete, have you ever been married? Said things you later regretted?
Pete Sessions - unable to name a single program the GOP would cut if they take the Congress:
So? Is Pete Sessions a spokesman for the GOP?
Sneakypete, have you ever been married? Said things you later regretted?
In this case he was. Maybe you could tell me what the GOP would actually cut. The only "plan" I've seen so far is Paul Ryan's blueprint for balancing the budget by 2080 by raising taxes on 95% of Americans.
No I can't, I'm not a memeber of the GOP. I do know, as an Independent American citizen and taxpayer, what I would cut, but it would make liberals squeal like pigs going to slaughter. Sneakypete, have you ever been married? Said things you later regretted?
Gossip on the street has Hillary on the ticket as VP in 2012 with Biden moving to SOS. An Obama/Clinton ticket would be unstoppable, indeed. {{{chuckling all the way to Nov '12}}}
Never swear "allegiance" to anything other than the 'right to change your mind'!
(chuckle)
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
Either way, double digit unemployment guarantees a one term failed Presidency.
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
big deal. He's not in a position to cut anything...YET.
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
Unemployment over 7% guarantees even if Obama had Jesus Christ as VP, and Mohammad as Sec of State, he's a one term failure like Carter. Its not about 'names' its about lack of performance.
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
Funny I can't get any Republicans to put their money where their mouth's are when it comes to 2012.
If you voted for Obama in 2008, you're too blame for this rotten mess we're now in. You broke it, you own it.
You won't...republicans, by and large, are pussies who like to hide...
Whats the bet? That Owe-bama is a one term President? Or who the GOP nominee will be?
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
You think it might be because only the DC elites want that crap he and the Democrtats are pushing?
Definately the 'elites' anyway.
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
against a generic Republican candidate, [Zero] loses by 5 points, 37-42.
But I can't, so I won't.
#2. To: Ignore Amos (#1)
#3. To: Ignore Amos, badeye (#1)
Too bad that there is no such thing as a generic rep. candidate.
Being a Republicans means you get to choose your own reality
#4. To: go65, badeye (#3)
But I can't, so I won't.
#5. To: Badeye (#2)
We'll see. I'm more interested in the November election results, then watching to see if Hillary resigns at the end of the year.
#6. To: Ibluafartsky, badeye (#5)
Being a Republicans means you get to choose your own reality
#7. To: go65 (#6)
Pete Sessions - unable to name a single program the GOP would cut if they take the Congress:
#8. To: Ibluafartsky (#7)
So? Is Pete Sessions a spokesman for the GOP?
Being a Republicans means you get to choose your own reality
#9. To: go65 (#8)
Maybe you could tell me what the GOP would actually cut.
#10. To: Badeye (#2)
watching to see if Hillary resigns at the end of the year.
#11. To: go65 (#3)
#12. To: Ibluafartsky (#5)
#13. To: go65 (#6)
#14. To: Brian S (#10)
An Obama/Clinton ticket would be unstoppable, indeed.
#15. To: Badeye (#0)
#16. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#15)
Funny I can't get any Republicans to put their money where their mouth's are when it comes to 2012.
#17. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#15)
#18. To: Badeye (#0)
And this is the heart of the issue — Obama is managing one legislative victory after another, yet his poll numbers keep sinking everywhere except with D.C. elites.
#19. To: no gnu taxes (#18)
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