Watch the Obama reelect numbers By: Mark Penn July 18, 2010 10:17 PM EDT By far, the most alarming numbers this poll presents for President Barack Obama are the reelection figures; against a generic Republican candidate, he loses by 5 points, 37-42. In general, when an incumbent’s reelect numbers fall below 50 percent, it’s a sign of trouble to come — and Obama’s inability to break even 40 percent may be the most telling indicator to come out of these data.
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Americans like Obama — despite nearly 10 percent unemployment and two ongoing wars, his 49 percent favorable rating remains much stronger than some of the low points hit by Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. But what is surprising is the 11-point gulf between his favorable (48 percent) and reelect ratings. This suggests a lot of voters are saying, “I like him personally” but not “I would vote for him again.”
And this is the heart of the issue — Obama is managing one legislative victory after another, yet his poll numbers keep sinking everywhere except with D.C. elites. He is now the D.C. outsider president whose strongest ratings are with D.C. insiders — they respect the bills he has gotten passed. But outside the Beltway, Obama suffers from the perception that he lacks the strength and leadership to deal with our biggest problems — unemployment, deficits and the two wars. And many believe he has moved to the left, abandoning the center to embrace a return to Big Government.
Generally, his lowest support continues to come from the factions who’ve been reluctant about Obama from the start; the reelect numbers fall as voter age increases and rise with voter education levels. Only 27 percent of those age 55-75 would vote to reelect the president, versus 45 percent of 18-to-34-year-olds and 36 percent of those between 35 and 54. Only 31 percent of those with a high school education would give him a second term, compared with 40 percent of college grads. Also dangerous is the fact that he’s down among independents by 7 points; only 26 percent would reelect him, with 33 percent throwing their weight behind the Republican candidate.
Some good news for the administration is that Obama is beating any of the real-world Republicans out there right now. His strongest showing is against Sarah Palin; in a head-to-head match, he gets 48 percent, driven by a strong vote from women. Palin is the kind of highly polarizing figure that people accused Hillary Clinton of being — only Palin is truly polarizing. Her nomination would probably doom the Republican Party and might even give rise to third-party candidates. She has a following that fuels her speeches and books but not a broad constituency.
But the other warning sign here is that Obama does not break 40 percent against other likely contenders, some of whom are known by very few voters. His numbers are stuck in the high 30s against Mitt Romney (the closest contender, who’s already within 4 points of Obama) Tim Pawlenty, Mike Huckabee and Haley Barbour. If these contenders become actual candidates, they still have a chance to shape their image and tell the story they want voters to hear, driving up their support; by contrast, after four years in office, perceptions of and support for Obama will be pretty well fixed.
Of course, he can take some solace from his Democratic predecessor. President Bill Clinton was also facing reelection numbers in the high 30s in July 1994, and while that accurately foretold a disastrous midterm season for the Democrats, he was reelected comfortably two years later. In many ways Clinton faced the opposite problem from Obama: People had personal questions about him but came to love the job he did as president. Obama still has a lot of time left to turn it around, but these reelect numbers are the most significant warning sign he is facing today.
