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Title: ECRI Plunges At 9.8% Rate, Double Dip Recession Virtually Assured
Source:
ZeroHedge.com
URL Source: [None]
Published: Jul 16, 2010
Author: Tyler Durden
Post Date: 2010-07-16 13:03:12 by Nebuchadnezzar
Keywords: None
Views: 16528
Comments: 36
ECRI Plunges At 9.8% Rate, Double Dip Recession Virtually Assured Tyler Durden's picture Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/16/2010 09:48 -0500 The ECRI Leading Economic Index just dropped to a fresh reading of 120.6 (flat from a previously revised 121.5 as the Columbia profs scramble to create at least a neutral inflection point): this is now a -9.8 drop, and based on empirical evidence presented previously by David Rosenberg, and also confirming all the macro economic data seen in the past two months, virtually assures that the US economy is now fully in a double dip recession scenario. "It is one thing to slip to or fractionally below the zero line, but a -3.5% reading has only sent off two head-fakes in the past, while accurately foreshadowing seven recessions — with a three month lag. Keep your eye on the -10 threshold, for at that level, the economy has gone into recession … only 100% of the time (42 years of data)." We are there.
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#1. To: All (#0)
So we're .2% away from officially being in a recession. But, but, but I thought the "stimulus" saved us from the abyss??? What happened?
If you voted for Obama in 2008, you're too blame for this rotten mess we're now in. You broke it, you own it.
What a cute little Blood Dancer you make.
According to whom?
No link.
Link is optional. Go to www.Zerohedge.com You'll find all the bad news there War.
If you voted for Obama in 2008, you're too blame for this rotten mess we're now in. You broke it, you own it.
As Stone explained, the link is optional only for vanity posts. All others require a link. A recession is when ALL indicators form a peak and begin to retreat from there. The last recession that has been declared has yet to be declared over.
#14. To: war (#10) The link isn't optional. If you have a source put the link there. If you write something yourself there will be no link. A K A Stone posted on 2010-06-27 10:49:04 ET Reply Trace Private Reply
Yes, Obama/Biden/Pelosi/Reid, etc., are on their teleprompters nightly saying how great things are and that they saved us from a recession. You might want to check the memo box as yours doesn't seem to be working.
If you voted for Obama in 2008, you're too blame for this rotten mess we're now in. You broke it, you own it.
Was what you typed above intended to make any kind of sense? Even to your fellow retards?
There you go! Your entire world view is collapsing so you strike out at little 'ol me? Hey man, don't shoot the messenger.
If you voted for Obama in 2008, you're too blame for this rotten mess we're now in. You broke it, you own it.
Wha...huh? Dude...where in the fuck are you? PING me when it stops and you can get off...
Hey man, don't shoot the messenger. Careful, he likes to brag 'I've killed things' from what I'm told...(roaring with laughter)
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
Let's stick to the story, mr. Obfuscation. "Oh you forgot to link the story..". Nice, let's try and discuss this like grown men, if you're up to that I mean.
If you voted for Obama in 2008, you're too blame for this rotten mess we're now in. You broke it, you own it.
The "story" was dispatched with quite early on.
If you voted for Obama in 2008, you're too blame for this rotten mess we're now in. You broke it, you own it.
So this isn't an accurate metric?
If you voted for Obama in 2008, you're too blame for this rotten mess we're now in. You broke it, you own it.
Yea so? Again I ask, when was the recession that was dated to December of 2007 [a fact I called to the month, btw] been declared over?
Your metric, btw, shows the stimulus working.
Pulling demand forward isn't growing the economy. We are seeing nothing short of a housing collapse/Crash, even by your 15% metric. Housing sales down 33% in one month? CRASH. Auto sales CRASHED after Cash for Clunkers. Now we have three months of depression-like "Deflation". If the stimulus "worked" how come everything is tanking now that the stimulus is done?
If you voted for Obama in 2008, you're too blame for this rotten mess we're now in. You broke it, you own it.
Every time that the ECRI has gone below -10% we've had a recession in the last 42 years. We're .2% away from the magic number War. Is reality that hard to take?
If you voted for Obama in 2008, you're too blame for this rotten mess we're now in. You broke it, you own it.
Have you been reading my posts here regarding the economy, doofus? If you had you wouldn't be pretending as if I disagree.
Huh? If the stimulus "worked" how come everything is tanking now that the stimulus is done? Because it wasn't a) long enough or b) possibly big enough to spur growth much beyond the initial pop. And, according to your matrix, there is no "if". What did the index do?
I just like it when what I predict comes to pass. Sorry I'm correct on this, but what pisses me off is all the lying the regime engaged in as well as their confederates in the MSM. You though seem comfortable with the lies.
If you voted for Obama in 2008, you're too blame for this rotten mess we're now in. You broke it, you own it.
The stop being so obtuse and insulting.
If you voted for Obama in 2008, you're too blame for this rotten mess we're now in. You broke it, you own it.
rotflmao. Good luck with that...
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
rotflmao. Good luck with that... Yeah, no shit. The guy wants it both ways. He wants to yell "Bush's fault" 24/7 and look the other way when Obama fucks up.
If you voted for Obama in 2008, you're too blame for this rotten mess we're now in. You broke it, you own it.
What has Obama fucked up?
I'm not being obtuse at all. You've had this posture since Obama took office. The stimulus worked to a point which is all a stimulus is supposed to do. Did the economy pull back 2nd! this year? Yep. I predicted that it would. Housing drives this economy and has since the 80's. Almost all domestic demand is rooted in owning a house.
tattle tale.
Just trying to fit in.
And how do you know the ECONOMY pulled back? By what metric do you make this wild claim? Unemployment? Nope, UE got WORSE. Also, when they passed the stimulus, they said it would pull us out of a recession and that would be it. You admit we're still in the recession. Still wanting it both ways, again and as always.
If you voted for Obama in 2008, you're too blame for this rotten mess we're now in. You broke it, you own it.
Nope. Indicators which would forward indicate rising consumer spending slowed or retreated.
Nope. I believe that it ended in 2nd or 3rd Quarter of last year. I simply asked you if those who declared the recession declared us out of it. Will we double dip? To me it looks as if there is about a 70% chance. Manufacturing has some decent momentum. Housing HAD momentum but, as I said when it first passed, the purchase credit should have been given a three year to five year lead. One year - less actually - is not enough of a kick in this kind of economy to account for enough people moving into the buyers market.
A decade worth of hypocrisy can't be denied...lol
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
But, but, but I thought the "stimulus" saved us from the abyss??? What happened? More accurate than the ECRI is the BDI, the Baltic Dry Index. And since it's a posting of weekly freight rates, PanaMAx, CapeMax Freighters, cannot be 'massaged'. It never recovered anywhere near it's 11 000 top in Fall/Spring 07/8. Got to 4000 + in May and been crashing in a straight line since. Now at 1700. Down to Mar 09's low. Headed to Nov 08's low. We've been in Depression since Xmas 07. We won;t get out until the next war. We won't get out then, but then we'll be thinking about other things. ;}
Note the BDI went 'cheney' the day we invaded Iraq. Patient now on life support after Flatline approaches.
#2. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#1)
#3. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#1)
So we're .2% away from officially being in a recession.
#4. To: A K A Stone (#0)
#5. To: war (#4)
#6. To: Nebuchadnezzar, A K A Stone (#5)
(Edited)
Link is optional.
#7. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#5)
(Edited)
#8. To: war (#6)
A recession is when ALL indicators form a peak and begin to retreat from there. The last recession that has been declared has yet to be declared over.
#9. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#8)
Yes, Obama/Biden/Pelosi/Reid, etc., are on their teleprompters nightly saying how great things are and that they saved us from a recession.
#10. To: war (#9)
Was what you typed above intended to make any kind of sense? Even to your fellow retards?
#11. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#10)
Your entire world view is collapsing
#12. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#10)
There you go! Your entire world view is collapsing so you strike out at little 'ol me?
#13. To: war (#11)
#14. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#13)
Let's stick to the story
#15. To: All (#0)
#16. To: war (#14)
The "story" was dispatched with quite early on.
#17. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#15)
#18. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#16)
(Edited)
#19. To: war (#18)
#20. To: war (#18)
#21. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#20)
(Edited)
#22. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#19)
(Edited)
Pulling demand forward isn't growing the economy.
#23. To: war (#2)
What a cute little Blood Dancer you make.
#24. To: war (#21)
Have you been reading my posts here regarding the economy, doofus? If you had you wouldn't be pretending as if I disagree.
#25. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#24)
The stop being so obtuse and insulting.
#26. To: Badeye (#25)
The stop being so obtuse and insulting.
#27. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#26)
He wants to yell "Bush's fault" 24/7 and look the other way...
#28. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#24)
The[n] stop being so obtuse and insulting.
#29. To: war (#7)
#30. To: A K A Stone (#29)
tattle tale.
#31. To: war (#28)
The stimulus worked to a point which is all a stimulus is supposed to do. Did the economy pull back 2nd! this year? Yep. I predicted that it would. Housing drives this economy and has since the 80's. Almost all domestic demand is rooted in owning a house.
#32. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#31)
And how do you know the ECONOMY pulled back? By what metric do you make this wild claim? Unemployment?
#33. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#31)
You admit we're still in the recession.
#34. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#26)
Yeah, no shit. The guy wants it both ways. He wants to yell "Bush's fault" 24/7 and look the other way when Obama fucks up.
#35. To: Nebuchadnezzar, war, All (#1)
So we're .2% away from officially being in a recession.
#36. To: All (#35)
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