(July 2) --The weather will continue to interfere with cleanup operations in the Gulf of Mexico heading into the Fourth of July weekend, even though Hurricane Alex moved inland and weakened. In a worst-case scenario, a tropical storm could develop near or directly over the area of the BP oil spill. The overall onshore flow that has resulted in large waves delivering tar into new areas along the Gulf Coast will not be as intense over the next couple of days, perhaps decreasing the intensity of the waves crashing ashore. According to The Associated Press, plate-sized tar lumps came ashore near Pensacola, Fla. Waves will remain higher than normal today and Saturday, especially near thunderstorms.
An abundance of thunderstorms will be the immediate weather problem. Thunderstorms will be more numerous than normal because of a combination of very humid air and a stalled front over the region. The storms will produce dangerous lightning, rough seas and locally strong wind gusts.
A greater danger would be if a low pressure system were to develop in the northern gulf, which sometimes happens when a stalled front begins to weaken near a warm water source during the first part of hurricane season.
The low-pressure system could become a tropical depression, a tropical storm or even a hurricane if it remains over the warm water long enough and is in an environment where upper-level conditions are conducive for development.
Some computer forecast models are indicating that a low-pressure system will develop along the immediate Gulf Coast during the next day or two -- in the area where the front is producing thunderstorms now.
It's unlikely that a hurricane would form since the developing system would be very close to land. But it's not out of the meteorological realm of possibility that a tropical depression (a tropical low pressure system with a sustained wind of no more than 38 mph) or tropical storm (a tropical low pressure system with a sustained wind of at least 39 mph) could form.
Tropical storms and hurricanes of this type are more common than long-track hurricanes that cross a large portion of the Atlantic Ocean during early July.
National Hurricane Center meteorologists, the government experts, say there is a 10 percent chance of development in this area during the next two days, and perhaps an organized low pressure system will not form.
The potential exists, however, and it will need to be watched over the next couple of days.