So is this an accident that I'm able to post here again?
That this isn't LP but a differently owned LF? 8D
dragon king deepwater horizon the killshot on the United States. the greatest event in the history of your life. We are now in the Olduvai Gorge.
Let's see?
If not, then the Gulf Coast has to be evac'ed now.
Obama's justy a front for British Petroleum. And Joe Barton from Texas needs to be thrown out of the US for apologizing to a Foreign Oil killing our gulf.
The locals are now taking over while the Feds are threatening arrests.
Okaloosa Island, case in point.
"As another Oil Drum member puts it after viewing the plot
I had heard this document was out there, but hadn’t seen it until now. Nice to finally have an actual electric log to look at. The sets of curves to the right of the depth track – these are the resistivity curves, and tell us things that the fancy curves put up elsewhere in the document try to quantify: The pore pressure of the shales is changing throughout the section. They were drilling from a high pressure zone to a slightly lower pressured zone. They’ve put some numbers on it, with a 14.1# sand at 17,70082; and the main pays having a mud weight equivalent to 12.6#. This is totally believable.
In a previous response, I put up a cartoon that talks about this, looking at it a bit differently. The way that the old men look at it, is the shales are sealing off zones of lower pressure. The lower pressure zone in this case is the one that is flowing out all into the Gulf of Mexico. So, it’s not as low pressure as you would think.
What it does mean, is that the higher pressure sands (and shales), combined with a lower pressure pay section, forced BP to try to get away with a lower amount of cement coverage. To properly protect the well with cement, the weight of the cement sufficient to isolate the pay properly would probably have screwed up the pay sands themselves — they would have limited the productivity of the eventual completion. It was a gamble with horrible results we’ve all seen.
This is why BP and others think the oil/gas is coming up around the outside of the casing — at least it was initially.
At least now I can guess where they’ll try to intersect the wellbore.
I have the electric log. Now I want the deviation plan for the relief wells. Anybody got that?
The corporate greed of BP won the battle and we now all know the results.
British Petroleum is a Criminal Sociopathic Syndicate. The US is covering.
It's a mathematical construct based on single relief well probabilities.
Think rolling dice, you're looking for a 'six' to show up.
Including time between rolls and the dice periodically 'blow up.'
Standard deviation for initial drill time. Standard deviation for each re -attempt.
So like this:
"Even if this model is a good one, the probabilities for relief well success are not known with any degree of confidence."
So yes, Fred, the deviation plan is for 'If they miss':
"I have chosen parameters which are consistent with predictions of when the well could be killed (August), the approximate probability of success, and time needed to regroup and try again after a swing and a miss. But the results suggest that, barring the loss of one or more of the current wells, additional wells will not significantly affect the time before the blowout is quenched. Readers are invited to download the spreadsheet used for this analysis, change the assumptions to those which you find more defensible, and offer up the results for further discussion.
