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Easy Drywall Patch
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Presidential race: Is a Split Ticket the only Answer?
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'Backbone of Iran's missile industry' destroyed by IAF strikes on Islamic Republic
Joe Rogan Experience #2219 - Donald Trump
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Gallant: ‘After we strike in Iran,’ the world will understand all of our training
The Atlantic Hit Piece On Trump Is A Psy-Op To Justify Post-Election Violence If Harris Loses
Six Al Jazeera journalists are Hamas, PIJ terrorists
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Iran's Assassination Program in Europe: Europe Goes Back to Sleep
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Israel kills head of Hezbollah Intelligence.
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Latest Articles: Economy
The Market Now Believes in a Much Tougher Fed Until November
Post Date: 2023-05-23 21:54:40 by Charles_Byrd
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According to CME Fedwatch, the single most likely action by the Fed is a pause all the way until a rate cut at the November meeting. But the path isn't necessarily a flat one. Click for Full Text!
The Fed Is Losing the Inflation Fight
Post Date: 2023-05-23 21:52:57 by Charles_Byrd
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We saw a big selloff in the gold market last week and the price dropped below $2,000 an ounce. The catalyst for that selloff was tough talk from several Federal Reserve officials and an increasing expectation that the central bank will raise rates again in June. As Peter Schiff explained in his podcast, everybody thinks the Fed is going to win the inflation fight because it is going to be even tougher. In reality, they are talking tougher because they are losing the fight. On Thursday, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she’s concerned that “much too high” inflation is not cooling fast enough to allow the Fed to pause its interest-rate hike campaign in June. Click for ...
Are You Ready For a Real Recession?
Post Date: 2023-05-23 21:42:34 by Charles_Byrd
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We haven't had a real recession in forty years (1981-82) and so only those who were in the workforce back then have any experience of how far and how fast things we think are solid can unravel. What's a real recession? In the most basic terms, a real recession is an organic, i.e. unmanipulated by central banks, completion of the credit cycle, also known as the business cycle. The credit / business cycle is intuitively easy to understand. When the cost of borrowing money (a.k.a. the cost of capital) declines and credit standards loosen so more enterprises and households can qualify for loans, the incentives to borrow and spend / expand increase. Lenders start making more money ...
Economists expect inflation, interest rates to stay high: survey
Post Date: 2023-05-22 18:58:51 by Charles_Byrd
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A new survey of economists found that respondents expect the Federal Reserve to make little progress this year on curbing rising prices, saying they expect inflation and interest rates will remain stubbornly high. The National Association for Business Economics’s (NABE) survey included responses from 45 economists. Click for Full Text!
How Many Dominoes Must Topple Before One Falls on Us?
Post Date: 2023-05-21 01:26:41 by Charles_Byrd
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Dominoes falling are abstractions until one falls on you. Lines of dominoes toppling are an apt analogy to highly centralized systems that are tightly bound, that is, all the transactions that flow through the centralized hubs are interconnected, so when one domino falls, it topples chains of dominoes that then topple other chains. Two concepts help illuminate this systemic vulnerability to cascading disruptions: dependency chains and path dependency. Dependency chains are set up when each critical component is dependent on a long line of other components working perfectly. One example is our dependence on our vehicle. If one component in our vehicle fails and it breaks down, our life ...
US Debt Default: A Positive Outcome
Post Date: 2023-05-21 01:18:58 by Charles_Byrd
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In fiscal year 2022 the feds spent $6.27 trillion on income of $4.9 trillion leaving a deficit of $1.37 trillion – a hole that represents 28% of revenue. What has Biden done to mitigate spending and bring it in line with receipts? NOTHING. And that’s the deadlock. Where did it go? During 2021 fiscal year during the height of the Pandemic, the government spent $6.8 trillion which included $1.1 trillion pandemic costs, paycheck protection CoVid = $290 billion, $733 billion in CoVid recovery payments and credits, and Unemployment due to CoVid of $392 billion. All of these disappeared in the 2022 budget. But the impact left Taxpayers holding 100% of federal debt compared to an ...
Fed Up Yet?
Post Date: 2023-05-21 01:12:19 by Charles_Byrd
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You would think the Fed wanted housing to become as overpriced as possible, having supported the market with $2.575 trillion in purchases of mortgaged back securities on its balance sheet to keep those securities flowing through with very low yields. That translated downward, of course, to very low mortgage rates, which the Fed sustained throughout the post- Covid years when housing prices were skyrocketing at their fastest rate to toward their highest prices ever, making housing unaffordable for just about everyone. You would think they wanted to create and pop a housing bubble, having kept that acceleration up all the way to the second they pulled the plug on the market with interest ...
US Empire of Debt Headed for Collapse
Post Date: 2023-05-21 00:57:15 by Charles_Byrd
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Prof. Michael Hudson’s new book, The Collapse of Antiquity: Greece and Rome as Civilization’s Oligarchic Turning Point” is a seminal event in this Year of Living Dangerously when, to paraphrase Gramsci, the old geopolitical and geoeconomic order is dying and the new one is being born at breakneck speed. Prof. Hudson’s main thesis is absolutely devastating: he sets out to prove that economic/financial practices in Ancient Greece and Rome – the pillars of Western Civilization – set the stage for what is happening today right in front of our eyes: an empire reduced to a rentier economy, collapsing from within. Click for Full Text!
Why Grandma Yellen Must Be Forced To Prioritize Spending
Post Date: 2023-05-21 00:30:50 by Charles_Byrd
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Let’s first reprise the great 2011 debt ceiling showdown. On July 28, just a few days prior to when the Treasury’s borrowing authority would have been exhausted, the yield on the benchmark 10-year UST note stood at 2.98%. And despite months of heated warnings to the freshly elected GOP House majority about its duty to promptly pass a “clean” debt ceiling increase that figure was actually down considerably from the 3.36% yield of early January 2011. That’s right. As shown below, the whole seven month ordeal on Capitol Hill about the expiring borrowing authority resulted in, well, an irregular but marked decline of the benchmark bond yield. Click for Full Text!
You Use the Roads, Don’t You?
Post Date: 2023-05-19 01:43:02 by Charles_Byrd
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It happened again, just last week. I mentioned at lunch that I was a libertarian, and one of my lunch mates snorted and said, “What a hypocrite. I bet you drove here today on a public road, didn’t you?” For some reason, a lot of folks think this is a knock-down argument against classical liberalism, because in their view we all just want to “free ride” (literally, in this case) by enjoying things paid for by others without contributing any of our own income as taxes. Click for Full Text!
So Why Aren’t We Paying Down the National Debt?
Post Date: 2023-05-17 20:25:04 by Charles_Byrd
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If you believe the media hype, a storm awaits America. The US government will have to fight off neo-Nazi religious fanatics, massive climate change, financial armageddon, mass species extinction, alien invasion, dollar dominance collapse, Russia and/or China, near-earth celestial objects, new pandemics, systemic racism, and evil billionaires, likely all at the same time. While more than one of those threats are overblown and/or unlikely, nobody knows what the future will bring other than that something bad will certainly happen at some point. So why aren’t policymakers eager to pay down the national debt? A small national debt is the best security blanket America has ever had, and ...
Why the Government Debt Crisis Will Blow up before we Even Get to Default
Post Date: 2023-05-16 23:41:36 by Charles_Byrd
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The Fed’s fight has become much more complex this month. Inflation is fighting back harder all of a sudden, while the US debt ceiling is putting bond markets and banks at considerable extra risk by driving bond yields up even faster than the Fed was doing. This extra thrust is happening just as the Fed was trying to end its rate increases and even as additional banks are poised to collapse from the already-high bond rates. The situation appears to be cascading into a nuclear market meltdown. When I published The Daily Doom two days ago, the headlines in that edition seemed to call the latest inflation report two ways, some highlighting that inflation is down a little, some saying it ...
Great Depression 2.0 Is Incoming
Post Date: 2023-05-16 23:35:21 by Charles_Byrd
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Peter Schiff appeared on First TV’s I’m Right with Jesse Kelly to talk about the state of the economy, inflation, and the unfolding financial crisis. Peter warned that we’re heading straight toward Great Depression 2.0. Jesse opened the show by noting that the CPI fell to 4.9% in April. That’s an improvement, right? Peter responded, “I guess it’s not quite as bad as it was, but it’s not good.” Click for Full Text!
Big Gambles Heading Into Gusting Headwinds
Post Date: 2023-05-16 23:24:45 by Charles_Byrd
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The economic forces – those post war strong tailwinds – that have shaped the last 35 years, and which accelerated gilded journeys through the western ‘plentiful era’, are no longer blowing in a favourable direction. They were already slowing, but now are reversing. The winds now have shifted 180° in direction – they are gusting headwinds. This is a structural shift within a long cycle. There are no quick ‘silver bullet’ solutions. The ‘Cabaret’ good-time years are gone. We will have to ‘make do’ with less; and consequent political volatility is inevitable. Click for Full Text!
Babson’s Warning
Post Date: 2023-05-16 23:17:59 by Charles_Byrd
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The above words could easily have been stated by me or another of the (very) few others who currently predict the coming of crashes in the markets. But they were not. The statements above were made by investor Roger Babson at a speech at the Annual Business Conference in Massachusetts on 5th September, 1929. Click for Full Text!
Doom Loops Are Multiplying
Post Date: 2023-05-12 20:05:28 by Charles_Byrd
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We can all pretend to be fantastic until the floor collapses beneath us. At that point, complacency / denial gives way to panic, but it's too late to effect any realistic reversal of fortune. Doom Loops have been in the lexicon a long time. The basic idea is the decline of one of the inputs holding up the status quo weakens the other inputs. This weakness feeds back on itself, accelerating the decline until a critical support level breaks and the system collapses. Click for Full Text!
Green New Deal Only Helps CCP, Hurts U.S.
Post Date: 2023-05-10 20:26:28 by Charles_Byrd
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We're living through extraordinary times, not too different from what was portrayed in "The Matrix" — a science fiction film depicting humankind as being unknowingly trapped in a false reality. The truth is, we're being deceived on a range of important and vital matters by a deep state ruling class, whose residences are our government, universities, media, and corporations. Click for Full Text!
Banks Report Tighter Lending Standards and Weaker Demand for Loans
Post Date: 2023-05-09 19:12:16 by Charles_Byrd
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The April 2023 Fed Survey on Bank Lending Practices shows tightening credit and weakening demand across a wide range of consumer and commercial products Commercial: Survey respondents reported, on balance, tighter standards and weaker demand for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to large and middle-market firms as well as small firms over the first quarter. Commercial: Banks reported tighter standards and weaker demand for all commercial real estate (CRE) loan categories. Consumer: Banks reported that lending standards tightened across all categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans other than government- sponsored enterprise (GSE)-eligible and government residential ...
Adam Smith v. Wesley Jones
Post Date: 2023-05-08 19:16:26 by Charles_Byrd
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Taking its cue from the NCAA March Madness basketball tournament, the Cato Institute recently sponsored a Protectionist Madness contest that pitted 32 harmful protectionist US trade policies against one another. As reported by Scott Lincicome, after seven rounds and 31 head-to-head “games,” the Jones Act was found to be the worst of the lot. For those not aware of the Jones Act, which outpolled “Buy American” in the finale by more than two-to-one, the tournament page summarized it: “This 1920 law restricts the transportation of goods between domestic ports to vessels that are US-built, US-flagged, and mostly US-owned and ‑crewed.” Click for Full Text!
This Debt Ceiling Fight Is Truly Different This Time
Post Date: 2023-05-07 01:59:08 by Charles_Byrd
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Now that we’re post-FOMC and ECB we have a clear playing field for another 6 weeks. The US debt ceiling theater is now center-stage along with completing the transition away from LIBOR, which will become an anachronism at the end of Q2. SOFR will be the law of the land in the US come July. The change over from LIBOR is effectively complete with LIBOR-based Eurodollar Futures now consigned to the dustbin of history. Click for Full Text!
Americans’ banking fears worst since 2008 financial crisis
Post Date: 2023-05-05 17:22:02 by Charles_Byrd
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Americans are worried about the safety of their money in the banking system after multiple banks have collapsed in recent weeks, according to a new poll. Gallup released the survey data, which showed that 19% are “very” worried about the safety of their money in banks and another 29% are “moderately” worried. Click for Full Text!
Mortgage payments have soared 85% in just three years thanks to Fed rate hikes
Post Date: 2023-05-05 17:20:06 by Charles_Byrd
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The median payment on a mortgage for a new home has exploded in the past three years as the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates in response to blistering inflation. In March, the median monthly payment sat at nearly $2,100, according to data compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association. That is a massive increase, more than 85%, from the $1,128 level median payments were at in April 2020. Click for Full Text!
Joe Biden Is Rewarding People With Bad Credit
Post Date: 2023-05-05 01:15:24 by Charles_Byrd
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On May 1, new Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) rules went into effect that will allow borrowers with lower credit ratings to qualify for better mortgage rates than they otherwise would have. Meanwhile, borrowers with better credit ratings will pay higher fees to subsidize the program. Peter Schiff recently appeared on Real America with Dan Ball to talk about the new rules. Experts say a person with a credit score over 680 could pay an extra $40 to $70 per month. Click for Full Text!
Fed hikes interest rates for 10th time
Post Date: 2023-05-04 23:13:52 by Charles_Byrd
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The U.S. Federal Reserve Board Wednesday announced another increase to the federal funds rate, inching the target range up to 5% to 5.25%, an increase of a quarter of a point. Wednesday’s announcement is the tenth rate hike since March 2022. Click for Full Text!
Now Progressives are Sneering at Economics
Post Date: 2023-05-03 20:41:22 by Charles_Byrd
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Who knew? Progressive economists are now attacking economics. According to Burton Abrams "progressives in the Democrat Party, backed… by left- wing sociologists and political scientists": deny basic economic principles and theory. They deny that incentives matter, that markets work better than government dictates, that scarcity and opportunity costs exist, that the laws of supply and demand are operative, that benefit-cost analyses have merit, and that economic efficiency makes consumers and producers better off. Okay, fine. So how do progressive experience things? They rely heavily on the vaguely defined concepts of diversity, equity, and inclusion. In other words, ...
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