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Latest Articles: Economy
Is There an Economic Bomb Cyclone Ahead?
Post Date: 2023-01-07 06:15:11 by Charles_Byrd
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First of all, nobody knows what will happen next with the economy. On the one hand our Democratic friends seem to think that their supercalifragilisticexpialidocious omnibus spending bill and glorious Inflation Reduction Act are already steering us to the green and pleasant land of woke Jerusalem. Click for Full Text!
Economic Reality Is Far Too Complex to Be Improved By Trade Restrictions
Post Date: 2023-01-06 01:24:56 by Charles_Byrd
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My recent column on the need to theorize carefully about comparative advantage provoked several people to share with me, by email, their objections to my case for a policy of unilateral free trade. Some of these objections miss their mark because they reflect a failure to distinguish real-world facts that are relevant to the point being made from facts that are irrelevant. To increase the clarity of one of my arguments about trade I used automobiles as a hypothetical example. I explained that, because the word “automobiles” refers to many different kinds of vehicles, producers in one country can have a comparative advantage at producing one kind of automobile (say, small sedans) ...
Why socialism sickens and capitalism cures
Post Date: 2023-01-05 23:27:03 by Charles_Byrd
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A 2022 Pew Research Center survey found that an alarming number of people still believe that socialism “gives all people an equal opportunity to be successful,” with 52% agreeing this statement is at least somewhat true for socialism. Fortunately, 64% agreed that statement is at least somewhat true for capitalism. Still, it is evident that most people who favor socialism don’t understand it or its negative consequences. Apologists for socialism need to understand what the late economist Friedrich Hayek said: “There is all the difference in the world between treating people equally and attempting to make them equal. While the first is the condition of a free society, the ...
Free-Market Capitalism is the Next American Economy
Post Date: 2023-01-04 18:50:10 by Charles_Byrd
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America is in the midst of an identity crisis, and it’s probably not the kind you’d think. Our nation is wrecked by an abysmal economy and unhappy people losing confidence in their country. In such unhappiness, people on both sides of the political aisle too often propose “solutions” that grant the government more control of our lives, even though that control is usually the source of the problem. The American experiment has paved the way for millions to escape poverty and build a better life via a free-market system with a constitutional republic that encourages innovation and results in more human flourishing than ever before. We need to get back to those roots. ...
We need this article! Americans that have only known the post WWII prosperity are ill equipped and educated to deal with depression level living.
Post Date: 2023-01-04 18:44:06 by Charles_Byrd
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The forces are mounting that will eventually overwhelm most Americans and send their standard of living to unknown depths. Americans that have only known the post WWII prosperity are ill equipped and educated to deal with depression level living. Easy credit and instant gratification have created a nation of whining, self absorbed, entitlement minded people with no moral or mental toughness. Doug Casey believes we are headed for what he calls a super depression created by the ending of a debt super cycle. The bigger the debt cycle the bigger the depression that follows. That’s how reality works and most people are not prepared for reality. Click for Full Text!
Spare a Thought for Bubble Wrap
Post Date: 2023-01-03 16:30:03 by Charles_Byrd
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Comparing Christmas today with Christmases past, David Waugh and Laura Williams eloquently explain that we ordinary Americans in 2022 are far wealthier than were ordinary Americans of just a few decades ago. We are fortunate indeed to live where and when we do! But evidence of our enormous prosperity, and of its source, is found not only in that which during the holiday season is seen – gifts, decorations, food, and holiday entertainment – but also in that which is not seen… or, rather, in that which is ignored and discarded. Click for Full Text!
Overcoming Challenges to Economic Freedom in States
Post Date: 2023-01-02 21:51:38 by Charles_Byrd
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People point to tax burdens and over-regulation as the reasons for economic decline. But the reality is that high government spending is the precursor to heavy taxes and regulation. Look no further than the Fraser Institute’s latest report to see how states rank for economic freedom based on government spending, taxes, and labor market regulation. Click for Full Text!
Where Do The Savings Go?
Post Date: 2023-01-02 21:50:11 by Charles_Byrd
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Innovation and exchange can be frustratingly uninspiring, particularly given that there are concentrated, vivid costs (in the form of lost jobs and struggling communities) and benefits dispersed across millions of people who might not even notice. Is it worth shutting a textile mill in the United States and opening a “sweatshop” in southeast Asia, so Americans can save a few cents on socks? Opponents of exchange and innovation tend not to put much weight on the dispersed benefits. Some people think it’s especially virtuous to pay extra for clothes that aren’t produced in “sweatshops” or to support local businesses. But as Henry Hazlitt reminds us, the art of ...
Not Enough Pizza
Post Date: 2022-12-29 20:58:34 by Charles_Byrd
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Entrepreneurs are transforming the way society makes and distributes valuable things. There will be (and already are) important consequences for the way we work and live. The good news is that we’ll need a lot less costly packaging, manufacturing, supply chain, and transport expenditures. The bad news is that folks who once manufactured, made packaging, or distributed and transported products are going to have to find something else to do. Much of my work lately, on the sharing economy, on the platform economy, and on antitrust policy, has focused on a particular distinction that almost no one seems to understand. I am going to explain the distinction as simply as I can, and then turn ...
Rate Hikes, Recessions and the Death of Spiritual Boomerism
Post Date: 2022-12-28 23:20:49 by Charles_Byrd
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I hate to gloat but, screw it. I’m gloating. With every FOMC meeting this year, Jerome Powell has become more and more hawkish, but the denial of this still dominates the headlines. He raised the Fed Funds Rate to 4.5% last week, a level unthinkable to nearly everyone, including me, this time last year. I told you all over a year ago Powell and the Fed were going to war with Davos and the ECB over Climate Change and their push for war with Russia. No one believed me then, and rightfully so. The idea was daft given the Fed’s history, the US’s books and the reality of a “Biden” presidency seemingly hellbent on spending the US into oblivion. Click for Full Text!
ESG By Another Name?
Post Date: 2022-12-28 23:15:51 by Charles_Byrd
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After years of headlines about the growing environmental, social, and governance—or ESG—movement in investing and corporate governance, it’s no surprise to see headlines about the burgeoning anti-ESG backlash. While criticism of ESG isn’t new, its opponents have recently begun to focus on legislative action aimed at stopping ESG in its tracks. A recent Reuters analysis identified 44 bills and new laws in 17 conservative-led states seeking to penalize financial institutions that have taken what they view as ESG-motivated stances on issues such as gun control, climate change, and diversity that they argue deprive legitimate businesses of capital. Conservative groups, like ...
The Second Housing Bubble of the 21st Century Is Over
Post Date: 2022-12-27 20:38:55 by Charles_Byrd
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The 21st century, only 23 years old, has already had two giant, international housing bubbles. It makes one doubt that we are getting any smarter with experience. Among the countries involved in the second bubble, both the U.S. and Canada fully participated in the newest rampant inflation of house prices. Prices this time reached levels far above those of the last boom peak. In the U.S., the S&P/Case-Shiller National House Price Index by mid-2022 had risen to 67% over its 2006 bubble peak (130% over its 2012 trough). In Canada, the Teranet- National Bank House Price Index had soared to 143% over its 2008 peak (168% over its 2009 trough). What the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada ...
How To Empower Millions of Independent Workers
Post Date: 2022-12-26 22:23:56 by Charles_Byrd
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Political discussions about the American worker almost always focus on traditional employees—people who work for a single employer, which provides regular compensation in exchange for controlling how, where, and when the employees' work will be completed. Yet the U.S. freelancing platform Upwork has estimated that in 2021 about 36 percent of the American workforce engaged in independent work: short‐term, specific assignments from multiple clients, relatively free from the clients' control or direction. These numbers swelled during the pandemic: The more than 64 million independent American workers in 2022 represented a 57 percent increase from 2019. The phrase ...
Empirically, Interest Rate Manipulation Doesn’t Work
Post Date: 2022-12-19 20:17:59 by Charles_Byrd
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It’s an economic article of faith among almost every school of economic thought that central banks raising interest rates curtails economic growth and lowering interest rates stimulates short-run economic growth. The problem with this assertion by nearly every economist is that the data backs up the inverse proposition. Click for Full Text!
The Economic Superbowl: 1920-1921 versus 1930-1931
Post Date: 2022-12-16 17:35:51 by Charles_Byrd
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It’s been said there’s no such thing as a controlled experiment in the social sciences, including economics. But we had something close to a laboratory experiment back in 1920-1921 and 1930-1931. In each of these periods there was a depression. Unemployment was high – for awhile — it was higher in the 1920s than in the 1930s. Prices were falling in both periods. Click for Full Text!
Communicating Economics to Young People
Post Date: 2022-12-16 17:33:03 by Charles_Byrd
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Among the most satisfying of my professional duties as an economics educator is one that, when I got my first job at George Mason University, I did not anticipate performing. Nor do I receive for my performance of this duty any financial compensation. But the intellectual and emotional compensations are immense. This duty is communicating, mostly by email, with students from around the country, and sometimes from abroad, about economics and liberalism. Most of these students are in college, but some are in high school. Also, I occasionally receive emails from high-school teachers. I share here four of my letters from the past few years. The first is a 2016 letter to a student at the ...
Christmas Cookie Inflation Index, 2022 Update
Post Date: 2022-12-16 17:18:25 by Charles_Byrd
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Last year, I was not prepared for the reaction to my annual updating of the Christmas Cookie Inflation Index (CCII). More precisely, I was not prepared for the partisan defensiveness and aggression from a portion of our audience regarding my annual (lighthearted) discussion of inflation. This year I’m going to try and blunt that reaction by issuing the following statement right at the top: Nothing that I write here should be construed to be for or against any national political party or politician. I do not personally believe, and I am not trying to suggest, that the policies of a specific national politician or party has caused or alleviated inflation, gas prices, food prices, or the ...
Austerity: A Real Solution to Help Heal the U.S. Economy
Post Date: 2022-12-15 20:36:04 by Charles_Byrd
1 Comments
Austerity works. We know what it is and don’t like it, but it works. It usually means cutting your consumption and spending, paying down your debts, pawning assets, and working more hours to restore your economic situation. You might invoke “austerity” because you lost your job, your house burned down, or you have an unexpected child on the way. You might take similar actions if the economy was in crisis. It’s essentially the same thing as cutting expenses to save for a down payment on a house, paying for a child’s education, or accumulating a fund for retirement. Click for Full Text!
Do Our Roads Have to be Built by Government?
Post Date: 2022-12-14 21:37:15 by Charles_Byrd
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Irecently read Highway Heist, a provocative book by economist James T. Bennett. Professor Bennett’s specialty is in applying free market thinking to subjects that most people believe require government involvement, and this book gets one to wondering how much better things might be if the U.S. had stuck with its initial, constitutional decision that the federal government should stay out of the road business. Bennett’s history is fascinating, beginning with a bit of carelessness at the Constitutional Convention. As the proceedings were coming to their close, Elbridge Gerry suggested an addition to Article I, Section 8 (which sets forth the spending powers of Congress). The draft ...
Father Time vs. Central Bankers
Post Date: 2022-12-14 21:01:07 by Charles_Byrd
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An excellent new book from Edward Chancellor, The Price of Time, sets out to explain both the theory and history of interest rates across five millennia and countless cultures. The theory is frequently bungled by economists; the history is frequently glossed over by historians. But thankfully Mr. Chancellor is up to the task. He is an excellent and engaging writer, owing presumably to his long career as a financial journalist. We need more books like this. Economists tend not to ask basic questions like, "What are interest rates, where do they come from, and what purpose do they serve?" But they should. No less than Richard Cantillon and Eugen von Böhm- Bawerk, both quoted ...
The Link between Productivity and Wages Is Strong
Post Date: 2022-12-14 20:08:06 by Charles_Byrd
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AEI economist Michael Strain has a new paper showing that, contrary to common belief, the link between productivity and wages is still very strong. Very much worth reading, the paper contains interesting discussions of how we should think about wages, which workers should or shouldn’t be included when measuring the relationship between productivity and pay, whether for “pay” we should use wages or total compensation, and so on. Click for Full Text!
GOLD IS MONEY: EVERYTHING ELSE IS CREDIT
Post Date: 2022-12-14 19:40:53 by Charles_Byrd
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Throughout the better part of 2022 there has been one question that has consistently, and predictably, popped up in conversations with my friends, clients and readers. Those who know me and are familiar with my ideas are well aware of my position on precious metals and the multiple roles they serve, so I can’t blame them for them for being curious whether I still “stick to my guns” in this era of irrationality in the markets and the economy. Especially for those not versed in monetary history, which is regrettably the vast majority of the population, it is natural to wonder: “If gold is such a great hedge against inflation, why hasn’t it skyrocketed now that ...
Tax Cuts Do Not Cause Inflation. Printing Does.
Post Date: 2022-12-13 17:34:24 by Charles_Byrd
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The narrative to attack any tax cut and defend any increase in government size is reaching feverish levels. However, we must continue to remind citizens that constantly bloating government spending and increasing the size of monetary interventions are some of the causes of the widespread impoverishment of the middle class. Constantly increasing taxes and diminishing the purchasing power of the currency is wiping out the middle class in most developed nations. Currency printing is not neutral, and it never is. It disproportionately benefits government and massively hurts real salaries and deposit savings. It is a massive transfer of wealth from savers to the indebted. Click for Full Text!
Are Free Traders Guilty of Naïve Globalism?
Post Date: 2022-12-13 17:06:05 by Charles_Byrd
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Samuel Gregg’s 2022 book, The Next American Economy, is an important and brilliant achievement. Gregg eloquently champions the free, commercial society against its many detractors. Among these detractors, of course, are today’s so- called “national conservatives” (some, but not all, of whom might fairly be described as Trumpian). But no less hostile to the liberal economy that Gregg ably defends are Progressives. While on many fronts national conservatives and Progressives have significant differences, on the economics of international trade, both groups commit the same slew of factual and theoretical errors. Gregg’s manner of exposing these errors is so scholarly, ...
Central Banks: Profligacy in Lockstep
Post Date: 2022-12-12 16:21:05 by Charles_Byrd
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The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) financial statements for the nine months ending September 30, 2022, show a bottom-line loss of US$150 billion.1 A number to get your attention! Under the strong financial discipline of its charter act, the SNB must mark its investments to market, and reflect any market value loss or profit in its income statement and capital account. From having capital of $221 billion at the end of 2021, the SNB’s capital has been reduced by 73% to $59 billion on September 30 due to falling market prices. Still, the SNB has a capital ratio—a bank’s equity to its total assets—over 6%. Click for Full Text!
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