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"Analysis: The Final State of the Presidential Race"

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Latest Articles: Economy

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Biden’s housing financing could lead to economic disaster
Post Date: 2023-05-03 20:33:47 by Charles_Byrd
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Even as the second, third, and fourth largest bank failures in U.S. history have unnerved financial markets in the past two months, the Biden administration keeps adding more stressors to the mix. Two new stressors come courtesy of the Federal Housing Finance Authority. One is already receiving copious criticism, but the other, more technical one has gone largely unnoticed. Both are misguided and should be reversed – along with a plethora of other regulatory and executive actions that are endangering the national economy. Click for Full Text!

Biden’s Bad Bet: How Regulation Kills Economic Growth
Post Date: 2023-05-03 20:27:41 by Charles_Byrd
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The US economy grew at an annualized rate of just 1.1 percent in the last quarter. Most analysts expected a figure in the neighborhood of 2.0 percent. Historically, 2.5 to 3.0 percent was considered feasible and healthy. We have a lot of ground to make up. Weak growth and high inflation call to mind the economic woes of the 1970s. But things aren’t that dire yet. The misery index — the sum of the unemployment and inflation rates — peaked in mid-1980 at 21.92. Right now it’s 8.48, thanks to an unusually strong labor market. But we shouldn’t be satisfied with “less bad than the Carter era.” We need to rev up America’s economic engine to unleash ...

The Political Cleverness of Envy-Driven Housing Policies
Post Date: 2023-05-01 21:53:05 by Charles_Byrd
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Win a lottery to live in a luxury building! The advertisements for these housing lotteries abound in New York City, which has the highest cost of housing in the country. What are the odds of winning one of these housing lotteries? 1-in-592. Click for Full Text!

What If the Whole Shebang Unravels?
Post Date: 2023-04-28 07:47:45 by Charles_Byrd
1 Comments
Scrape away the hand-wringing about interest rates and we find a bedrock of complacency. Nobody seems to doubt that the status quo can grind on for another 30 years doing the same stuff it's done for the past 30 years. Japan's Perpetual Motion Finance Machine can apparently run for another 300 years without a hitch. Here's how the Perpetual Motion Finance Machine works: the government spends huge sums it doesn't have by selling bonds to the central bank, which creates the money to buy the bonds out of thin air. Perpetual Motion--perfect! Click for Full Text!

Some Factual and Economic Errors of “Common Good Capitalism”
Post Date: 2023-04-27 01:58:13 by Charles_Byrd
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There’s been much talk lately of “common good capitalism.” Among the leading voices insisting that the state must engineer capitalism to ensure that it serves the common good are Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) and American Compass founder Oren Cass. Also writing favorably about “common good capitalism” (although the full measure of his support isn’t clear) is frequent AIER contributor Alex Salter. I dissent. Click for Full Text!

What strong gold says about the weak dollar
Post Date: 2023-04-26 23:55:22 by Charles_Byrd
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Today commentators overwhelmingly agree that a weakening US dollar cannot possibly lose its status as the world’s dominant currency because there is “no alternative” on the visible horizon. Perhaps, but don’t tell that to the many countries racing to find an alternative, and such complacency will only accelerate their search. The prime example right now is gold, up 20 per cent in six months. Surging demand is not led by the usual suspects — investors large and small, seeking a hedge against inflation and low real interest rates. Instead, the heavy buyers are central banks, which are sharply reducing their dollar holdings and seeking a safe alternative. Central banks ...

BOTH Major Parties Pursuing Lenin’s “Capitalism”-destruction Strategy
Post Date: 2023-04-24 17:35:17 by Charles_Byrd
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“The way to crush the bourgeoisie is to grind them down between the millstones of taxation and inflation,” goes a line apparently misattributed to Vladimir Lenin. While the quotation is more likely a paraphrase of Lenin by famed economist John Maynard Keynes, it also “seems like a pretty good description of what the Biden administration is doing to America’s middle class,” wrote the New York Post a year ago already. Of course, “inflation,” as in rising prices, is at least largely caused by a phenomenon expressed via another definition of the term: inflating the money supply. Now, one thing Lenin absolutely did prescribe, explicitly, was the raising of ...

Abundant Work Opportunities Can Revitalize the American Dream
Post Date: 2023-04-24 16:45:55 by Charles_Byrd
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My family and I moved to the United States from Armenia in the mid- 1990s. After years of living through war, a devastated economy and food shortages, we found that America stood true to its symbol as the land of abundance and opportunity. My parents found work as soon as they arrived, and in addition to an abundance of food, housing and supplies to get our new life off the ground, we found an abundance of kindness, generosity and charitable giving from our community members. The lesson I learned then was one that I continue to hold dear: Abundance is what made my American Dream come true—and it can for millions of other working families today. Click for Full Text!

A Death Blow Is Coming for the Dollar and People Will Run to Gold
Post Date: 2023-04-23 02:03:49 by Charles_Byrd
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There has been a lot of talk lately about de-dollarization. As just one example, the BRICS nations recently announced they are developing a new currency. Peter Schiff recently appeared on Commodity Culture with Jessie Day to talk about the trajectory of the dollar. He said that the death blow for the dollar is coming. And when it does, people will run to gold. There has been plenty of speculation about de-dollarization recently, but is it a real threat, or is all of the talk just hyperbole? Click for Full Text!

The Housing Bubble: Owners Trapped by Low-Rate Mortgages, Buyers Thwarted by High-Rate Mortgages
Post Date: 2023-04-23 01:31:04 by Charles_Byrd
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If as many posit the Federal Reserve has an unstated mandate to generate a "wealth effect" by propping up housing, they've managed to create a no-win situation. As longtime correspondent K.M. recently documented, roughly half of the 50+ million home mortgages in the US were refinanced in 2020 and 2021 to lock in historically low interest rates of less than 4%, with many around 3%. Click for Full Text!

De-dollarization Has Begun.
Post Date: 2023-04-23 01:16:38 by Charles_Byrd
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Last week, China and Brazil reached an agreement to settle trades in one anothers’ currencies. Over the past 15 years, China has replaced the United States as the main trading partner of resource-rich Brazil, and as such that shift may have been inevitable. But within the context of recent circumstances, this appears to be another in a series of recent blows to the central role of the dollar in global trade. As the world’s reserve currency, the US dollar is essentially the default currency in international trade and a global unit of account. Because of that, every central bank, Treasury/exchequer, and major firm on Earth keeps a large portion of their foreign exchange holdings in ...

How Quickly Will the Dollar Collapse?
Post Date: 2023-04-23 00:46:49 by Charles_Byrd
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This article looks at the factors behind the growing rejection of the dollar for trade settlement purposes by non-aligned nations around the world. They no longer fear political or economic reprisals from America. The dollar’s monopoly was notably challenged by Saudi Arabia, which removed itself from the US’s sphere of influence to that of China and Russia. Consequently, peace has broken out throughout the Arab lands. Click for Full Text!

The Adam Smith Solution
Post Date: 2023-04-22 00:15:01 by Charles_Byrd
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The relationship between Adam Smith’s two great books is famously complicated. The Theory of Moral Sentiments, published in 1759, and An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, published in 1776, take up related but distinct subjects, and Smith never explained how he understood their connection. Click for Full Text!

Real Wages Fall for Two Years Straight as "Transitory" Inflation Turns Stubborn
Post Date: 2023-04-22 00:12:49 by Charles_Byrd
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The federal government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released new price inflation data last week, and according to the report, price inflation during the month decelerated slightly, coming in at the lowest year-over-year increase in twenty-three months. According to the BLS, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose 5.0 percent year over year in March before seasonal adjustment. That’s down from February’s year-over- year increase of 6.0 percent, and February is the twenty-fifth month in a row with inflation above the Fed’s arbitrary 2 percent inflation target. Price inflation has now been at or above 5 percent for twenty-three months in a row. Meanwhile, ...

Industrial Policy Does Indeed Fall Victim to the Knowledge Problem
Post Date: 2023-04-18 22:40:25 by Charles_Byrd
0 Comments
In a recent paper published by the Heritage Foundation, frequent AIER contributor Alexander William Salter argues that industrial policy, of the sort that is advocated by Oren Cass and other of today’s national conservatives, is not properly subject to the criticism that this policy will fail because it cannot solve “the knowledge problem.” This policy might fail for other reasons — most prominently, the inevitable noxious influence of interest-group politics — but it will not fail because of an inability on the part of government officials to access enough knowledge to make the policy a success. Click for Full Text!

A Costly De-Globalization is Underway, It Just Doesn't Look Like It Yet
Post Date: 2023-04-16 19:22:00 by Charles_Byrd
0 Comments
Please consider the Three Stages of De-Globalization. Click for Full Text!

Debt Default Among Poorer Countries – Another Banking Spiral…
Post Date: 2023-04-15 01:44:48 by Charles_Byrd
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Politico: “Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and other officials are growing adamant that what they view as China’s hardline approach to lending is squeezing countries and threatening to deepen poverty in Africa and elsewhere.” The issue with the version presented by the far left Politico is that it is focused exclusively on China instead of the IMF whose inability to provide relief is a paramount concern. By contrast The World Bank would appear to be relatively healthy. The bias places unequal weighting on the scales and thus precludes a whole picture presentation. Click for Full Text!

Dismal is Better
Post Date: 2023-04-15 01:33:11 by Charles_Byrd
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Americans admire the rugged individualist who goes his own way, who stands alone. The problem is that standing alone at social gatherings is…lonely. And, frankly, pathetic. But that’s what usually happens to me, off in a corner, trying to pretend to study the wallpaper for clues. The problem is that I am, both by training and by temperament, an economist, and therefore dismal company. The “dismal science” appellation came originally to our profession for a different reason, though, as has been shown by David Levy in his terrific and surprising account. The tl;dr version is that the cool kids of the 18th and 19th centuries — and their intellectual heirs and assigns, ...

Condemning the Profit Motive
Post Date: 2023-04-15 01:22:00 by Charles_Byrd
0 Comments
I recently encountered a laundry list of objections to the profit motive. The following is the list with redundancies removed, edits for clarity, and my comments. Many of the complaints are based in ignorance of how markets work, ignorance of the perverse incentives created by government regulation, failure to consider problems with available alternatives, refusal to consider the possibility of government failure, demands that companies solve complex social problems (some of which are created by government), and an insistence on perfection. Click for Full Text!

Why Do Most Countries Have their Own Currency? Governments Wanted It that Way.
Post Date: 2023-04-14 02:52:06 by Charles_Byrd
0 Comments
Among the many facts of modern life that are accepted without question by most ordinary people is that it is somehow perfectly natural, expected, and unremarkable that every sovereign state should have its own currency. We see this everywhere in names such as "the U.S. dollar" or "the Chinese yuan" or "the Japanese yen." Indeed, among the 203 sovereign states of the world, there are nearly as many separate national currencies. The euro, of course, is a notable—and recent—exception to this, but even after more than 20 years of the euro, only 26 of the world's states use it. Many of those are very small states such as Andorra, Vatican City, Malta, ...

India-Malaysia to Trade in Rupees Bypassing US Dollar
Post Date: 2023-04-10 18:37:22 by Charles_Byrd
0 Comments
There is a worldwide movement to stop using what is considered a toxic currency, the US dollar. The concept of de-dollarization is accelerating, now India, the “I” in the BRICS Coalition has also made significant moves to bypass US dollars. Livemint.com published an interesting article that is a testament to what is taking place in regards to the US dollar reserve currency status, ‘Union Bank becomes first to open special vostro account for India-Malaysia trade settlement in rupee’ reported that the development of a new trading option between India and Malaysia was to begin with the implementation of using rupees as the “Union Bank of India becomes the first bank ...

Easter potatoes trend grows amid soaring egg prices
Post Date: 2023-04-10 01:18:43 by Charles_Byrd
0 Comments
Egg prices have stabilized from their January highs, but they’re still not cheap. Some people on social media are trying something different for Easter this year – painting potatoes instead of eggs. Click for Full Text!

Study: Young Homebuyers Sacrifice, Do Side Gigs
Post Date: 2023-04-09 02:38:02 by Charles_Byrd
0 Comments
A recent study finds that younger homebuyers are working more or sacrificing travel and paying for major life events to be able to achieve the American dream. To purchase a home, millennials and Gen Zers in America say they are working an extra job or side gig, delaying major travel plans and significant life events like getting married, or sacrificing elements of their social lives to cobble together enough money to get a place of their own, a Compare the Market survey of 1,012 American adults in October 2022 found. Click for Full Text!

Here's How We'll Have Labor Shortages and High Unemployment at the Same Time
Post Date: 2023-04-07 04:56:36 by Charles_Byrd
0 Comments
The labor force and the job market are referred to as if they were monolithic structures. But they're not monolithic, they are complex aggregates of very different cohorts of age, skills, mobility, education, experience, opportunity, potential and motivation. As a result, numbers such as the unemployment rate tell us very little about the labor force and the job market in terms of what matters going forward. So what does matter going forward? Click for Full Text!

Don't Worry, the Fed Seeks to "Minimize the Pain of the Journey"
Post Date: 2023-04-07 04:52:13 by Charles_Byrd
0 Comments
Please consider A Diligent and Judicious Return to Price Stability by Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester I thank the Money Marketeers of New York University for inviting me to speak this evening. I look forward to hearing what is on your minds, but first, I would like to present some prepared remarks on the economy and monetary policy. Click for Full Text!

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