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Latest Articles: Economy
'This gets worse': 'Shark Tank' star predicts 'a real run' on banks
Post Date: 2023-08-23 19:00:29 by Charles_Byrd
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“Shark Tank” star Kevin O’Leary said Tuesday that commercial real estate difficulties could lead to “a real run” on regional banks when interest on commercial real estate loans increases. S&P Global downgraded Associated Banc-Corp., Comerica Inc., KeyCorp, UMB Financial Corp. and Valley National Bancorp Wednesday, while also giving two other banks a negative rating as interest rates for loans increased due to the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates to combat inflation. Moody’s, another major credit agency, announced earlier this month that ten banks had their rating lowered, Reuters reported. Click for Full Text!
Stories to Watch: Industrial Policy
Post Date: 2023-08-23 18:48:49 by Charles_Byrd
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Part of my personal mission is to try to stay out of daily online conflicts and instead contribute something to long-term understanding. There are plenty of ongoing stories to which I think I can contribute some perspective. One is the long-term fiscal position of the U.S. government. Another is the potential for the political divide in this country to escalate, with both sides taking to the streets. Yet another is how things will play out with what we are calling artificial intelligence (large language models). The story I want to introduce here is the potential for industrial policy to misallocate resources. The attempt by government to use powerful carrots and sticks to increase ...
The Fed Will Never Hit Its Inflation Target
Post Date: 2023-08-19 01:44:02 by Charles_Byrd
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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July came out last week. Even though the headline number ticked up slightly compared to June, most mainstream analysts took it as a sign that the Federal Reserve made more progress in its inflation fight. In fact, most mainstream pundits seem convinced that the Fed is on the verge of winning that fight and pushing CPI back to its 2% target. In his podcast, Peter said they are wrong. Investors much-anticipated the July CPI report – not so much because they are worried about inflation, but because they are worried about high interest rates. Click for Full Text!
Monetary Inflation Won't Create Economic Growth
Post Date: 2023-08-18 02:18:05 by Charles_Byrd
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When it comes to matters of money and banking, all practical political issues ultimately hinge on one central question: can one improve or deteriorate the state of an economy by increasing or decreasing the quantity of money?1 Aristotle said that money was no part of the wealth of a nation because it was simply a medium of exchange in inter-regional trade, and the authority of his opinion thoroughly marked medieval thought on money. Scholastic scholars therefore spent no time enquiring about the benefits that changes of the money supply could have for the economy. The relevant issue in their eyes was the legitimacy of debasements, because they saw that this was an important issue of ...
Food and gas prices continue to rise, putting strain on Americans' budgets
Post Date: 2023-08-15 22:22:41 by Charles_Byrd
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Food and gas prices continue to rise, putting a strain on Americans’ budgets even as reports shows inflation is slowing. Gas prices have risen significantly in recent weeks, according to pricing data from AAA. Gas prices hit a record high earlier in the Biden administration, surpassing an average of $5 per gallon nationally, before dropping back down. Click for Full Text!
The American People Are Absolutely Sick And Tired of “Bidenomics”
Post Date: 2023-08-13 03:03:10 by Charles_Byrd
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Thanks Joe Biden! Ever since you entered the White House, economic conditions have taken a major turn for the worse. We have been experiencing the most painful inflation crisis since the Jimmy Carter era, more than 60 percent of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, the U.S. actually lost 585,000 full-time jobs last month, consumers now owe more than a trillion dollars on their credit cards, the housing bubble has started to burst, and the most dramatic commercial real estate crisis in U.S. history has begun. Needless to say, the American people are fed up. According to a brand new Reuters/Ipsos survey that was just released, a whopping 73 percent of all Americans believe that the ...
Labour Shortages – Food Shortages – Critical Thinking Shortages
Post Date: 2023-08-13 02:42:46 by Charles_Byrd
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As the middle class wanes and poor immigrants continue to invade, the impact on America’s businesses is completely restructured. Tyson Foods shuttered four plants in the US claiming a significant loss in ‘demand’ and a need to lower costs. Simultaneously, Tyson opened 3 plants in – China. The decoupled China. Various economists have speculated that Tyson shutting down is because the cost of chicken is too high – reducing demand. Shutting down plants means less supply – means higher prices. Even economists seem oddly inept. A secondary factor for the shutdowns is ‘labour shortages’. Yet, given labour is the most significant expense for a commodity, a ...
7 Trends Which Indicate That Economic Disaster Is Approaching Very Rapidly
Post Date: 2023-08-13 02:40:34 by Charles_Byrd
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The economic meltdown that is coming should not be a surprise to anyone. Throughout U.S. history, there have always been signs that a major downturn was coming, and that is precisely what we are witnessing right now. Tax revenues are way down, demand for trucking services is way down, demand for cardboard boxes is way down, the money supply is shrinking at the fastest pace in modern history, and the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators has already declined for 15 months in a row. At this point, anyone that cannot see what is coming has got to be willingly blind. The following are 7 trends which indicate that economic disaster is approaching very rapidly… #1 ...
Biden's New 'Prevailing Wage' Rule Will Cost Taxpayers, Benefit Unions, and Hike Inflation
Post Date: 2023-08-13 02:20:34 by Charles_Byrd
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In the same week as government data revealed that inflation is stubbornly ticking higher again, the Biden administration put its final stamp of approval on a new rule that will hike the cost of infrastructure projects. The Department of Labor announced Wednesday that it will change how it calculates so-called prevailing wages paid to government contractors working on construction and infrastructure projects. In its announcement of the new rule, the Labor Department claims the changes are meant to "modernize Davis-Bacon," the 1931 law that governs compensation for federal building projects. Click for Full Text!
How U.S. sugar protectionism could sour your Halloween and Christmas
Post Date: 2023-08-10 01:32:18 by Charles_Byrd
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Carl Sandburg’s hog butcher, wheat stacker, city of the big shoulders — was once America’s candy capital, catering to the nation’s sweet tooth. Today it is less so because the federal government interferes with candy’s most important ingredient. Click for Full Text!
Gas Prices Spike, Creating Headache for Biden
Post Date: 2023-08-08 00:38:24 by Charles_Byrd
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The average increase in the price of gasoline was 30 cents per gallon in the past month — and could complicate President Joe Biden's 2024 reelection strategy, the Daily News reported Monday. More trouble for Biden's campaign could come as the price hikes may also intensify as planned cuts in OPEC+ production, spearheaded by Saudi Arabia and Russia, take hold in international markets, with high summer temperatures also contributing to higher energy demand, which would further drive up prices. Click for Full Text!
Fitch Ratings Agency Downgrades U.S. Long-Term Credit Rating
Post Date: 2023-08-02 21:00:27 by Charles_Byrd
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Fitch Ratings on Tuesday downgraded America’s long-term foreign-currency- issuer default rating, citing ongoing and projected future fiscal instability, an increasingly long and disruptive governance process, and rising debt and deficits. Click for Full Text!
All Bubbles Pop
Post Date: 2023-08-01 01:49:41 by Charles_Byrd
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The problem with bubbles of received wisdom and herd-euphoria is conditions change but the risk of something untoward happening is still perceived as inconsequentially low. All bubbles pop--and not just stock market bubbles. A speculative bubble is a psychological-social phenomenon in which confidence in the stability of future gains reaches levels where doubts are banished and risks have dissipated into thin air. This confidence can be euphoric or it can be the baseline: this (guaranteed gains) is the way the world works. Click for Full Text!
Millennials & Gen Z's Can't Afford To Buy A Home No Matter How Much They Save, So Why Not Embrace Nihilism And Buy Taylor Swift Tickets
Post Date: 2023-07-28 01:56:52 by Charles_Byrd
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Spain went to the polls over the weekend following a decision by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez to seek a renewed mandate after poor municipal election results in May. The conservative opposition People’s Party was widely expected to form government with the support of the right-wing Vox party and perhaps a constellation of minor parties. However, despite the PP winning the largest number of seats, Sanchez’s ruling Socialists exceeded expectations and managed to add two more seats to their own tally. This was enough to ensure that there is no easy path to the required 176 for any coalition of the right or left. So, having resolved nothing, Spain now enters a political purgatory of ...
Will a New BRICS Currency Backed by Gold Mean the End of Global Dominance for the U.S. Dollar?
Post Date: 2023-07-28 01:10:45 by Charles_Byrd
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Is the global dominance of the U.S. dollar in danger? In recent weeks, there has been lots of speculation about the introduction of a new BRICS currency that would be backed by gold. In this article, my goal is to sort through what is true and what is not true. From August 22nd to August 24th, the 15th BRICS summit will be held in Johannesburg, South Africa. Back on July 5th, RT sparked a firestorm of rumors when it reported that a decision to introduce a new BRICS currency that would be backed by gold would be made prior to the upcoming summit in Johannesburg… Click for Full Text!
Economics is Not Easy
Post Date: 2023-07-24 23:42:06 by Charles_Byrd
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I often have conversations with people who ask what I do. When I tell them, many say, “Oh, wow, I don’t know much about economics!” Here is a blanket endorsement: Look, folks, when you tell me that, I believe you. Click for Full Text!
Dollar Decline Means Lower Inflation Is Transitory
Post Date: 2023-07-22 01:57:33 by Charles_Byrd
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With the June CPI report coming in even cooler than expected, the mainstream perspective seems to be that the Federal Reserve is winning the inflation fight. But in his podcast, Peter Schiff explains why the dollar is telling a different story. The dollar index fell below 100 last week for the first time and hit its lowest level since April 2022 last Thursday. Through last week, the DIX fell by 2.3%. Peter said what is happening is somewhat counterintuitive. Click for Full Text!
The Two Causes of the Coming Great Depression
Post Date: 2023-07-22 01:38:31 by Charles_Byrd
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There are two approaches to analyzing a situation: 1. Choose the desired outcome--generally the one that doesn't require any major changes, sacrifices or downward mobility 2. Identify the initial conditions and systemic dynamics and then follow these to a conclusion back-tested by comparisons with historical outcomes. Click for Full Text!
Don't Republicans know government spending saps economic growth?
Post Date: 2023-07-16 01:17:36 by Charles_Byrd
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Economic discussions would be far more worthwhile if those in the conversation got the basics. One of them is that governments don’t take in money, nor do they spend it. When governments charge us for our production (call it a tax), the money they take in is just a ticket for the actual resources that we've produced, and that politicians are going to redirect in politicized fashion. Translated for those who need it, governments don’t tax away our money to look at it lovingly; rather the money taken from us represents their ability to redirect actual goods, services and labor in politicized fashion. Click for Full Text!
Bond Bear Will Maul Stocks and the Dollars
Post Date: 2023-07-14 01:34:30 by Charles_Byrd
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Stocks and bonds had a tough week last week. In his podcast, Peter Schiff talked about the market moves in the context of Fed rhetoric and the jobs reports. He concluded that we could be heading toward another big leg down in bonds, and this bond bear will maul stocks and the dollar. Peter said called last week “decisive” and “telling” in the markets. The stock market and the bond market both showed weakness, along with the dollar. But gold finished last week with a small gain. Click for Full Text!
'We're still in terrible shape,' economist says after inflation report released
Post Date: 2023-07-12 17:40:14 by Charles_Byrd
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An economist says “American families are having to eat the rotten fruit from the tree of government overspending” after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday that the consumer price index, a key measure of inflation, rose 0.2% in June. “It’s great news for the consumer that inflation has slowed dramatically from 40-year highs, but we’re still in terrible shape,” EJ Antoni, a research fellow for regional economics in the Center for Data Analysis at The Heritage Foundation, told The Daily Signal in a written statement Click for Full Text!
Do You Remember the Chaos That “Underwater” Properties Caused in 2008 And 2009? Well, It Is Starting To Happen Again…
Post Date: 2023-07-11 18:21:04 by Charles_Byrd
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We never seem to learn. Over a decade ago, our leaders created the biggest housing bubble of all time, and when it finally burst the entire globe experienced great financial pain. So did they learn from their mistakes and fix the system? No, instead they just created an even bigger housing bubble. Now that housing bubble is beginning to burst, and that is going to have very serious implications for all of us. One thing that we learned during the Great Recession is that home values really matter. Click for Full Text!
All Dreams End: The Collapse of Keynesian Economics
Post Date: 2023-07-11 18:05:23 by Charles_Byrd
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Unbeknownst to economists, the Keynesian bedrock of modern economics-- using financial repression and government spending funded by debt to manage the business cycle of growth and recession--is an artifact of a century of expansive cheap energy and virtuous demographics. Presented as quasi-scientific "laws of economics," Keynesian policies of suppressing interest rates and funding stimulus with debt were only possible in an era in which energy per capita (per person) always became more abundant and affordable in terms of the purchasing power of wages, i.e. how many hours of labor does it take to buy the energy to fuel a vehicle, prepare a meal, etc. Click for Full Text!
The Federal Reserve Has Been a Disaster for America
Post Date: 2023-07-08 01:16:55 by Charles_Byrd
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Like all indoctrinated economics PhDs, I used to teach students that the Federal Reserve was created as a central bank in order to provide cash to banks experiencing a run on deposits so that bank failures would not become general and collapse the money supply and, thereby, employment and output. It all sounds so reasonable and rational until you realize that finance least of all is idealistic. The Federal Reserve was actually created in order to save the big New York banks from their greed-driven mistakes, and that is the Fed’s principal activity. In recent decades the Fed has gone beyond merely saving the big banks from their mistakes to helping the big ones concentrate more banking ...
The Real Determinants of Currency Value
Post Date: 2023-07-08 01:14:33 by Charles_Byrd
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There are two components to the inflation story: the cycle of bank credit, which left to itself is self-cancelling, and the longer-term erosion of currency values. In examining the causes, this article goes back to monetary basics to explain what is required to make a currency’s purchasing power stable. Economists generally seem unaware of the importance of credit in the economy. In a world of fiat currencies, they wrongly take central bank currency to be money, and also routinely describe bank credit as money. But they are credit, which drives everything, not only statistically recorded credit, but in our personal relationships as well. Click for Full Text!
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