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Obama Wars Title: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll -17 (Rasmussen) Daily Presidential Tracking Poll Thursday, January 28, 2010 Email to a Friend ShareThis.Advertisement The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 25% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-two percent (42%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -17 (see trends). Rasmussen Reports has compiled a summary of voters views on topics raised in the State-of-the-Union Address. Later today, data will be released on the president’s proposed freeze on discretionary spending. Voters strongly believe that cutting taxes is a better job creation tool than increasing government spending. Additionally, the president proposed a college lending program that would give preferential repayment terms to government workers. That may be a tough sell at a time when most Americans already believe government workers are overpaid. Government workers are more bullish about both the economy and their own financial condition than private sector workers. The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates are also available on Twitter and Facebook. Overall, 46% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. Fifty-four percent (54%) disapprove. These updates are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The overwhelming majority of interviews for today’s update were completed before the President’s speech last night. Scott Rasmussen’s new book, In Search of Self-Governance, is now available on Amazon.com. You can also order your copy or read more about it on RasmussenReports.com. In Wisconsin, Senator Russ Feingold joins the list of incumbent Democrats who may face a difficult challenge in November. A commentary by Rhodes Cook suggests that “For Democrats, It’s Time to Worry.” (More Below) In Election 2010 Senate races, Democratic incumbents are behind in Nevada, Colorado, Arkansas and Pennsylvania. Barbara Boxer from California has a narrow lead but finds herself in a more competitive race than usual. Evan Bayh from Indiana is potentially vulnerable. Republicans lead open-seat races in Delaware, Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Dakota, and Ohio. Democrats lead in Connecticut, and the race is close in Illinois. A commentary by political analyst Larry Sabato, suggests that if the election were held today, “the (59-seat) Democratic majority in the Senate would be reduced to just 52 seats.” Rasmussen Reports has also released polls on the 2010 governor’s races in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Texas. Most Americans support the President’s idea of taxing large banks to get back the bailout money. But 69% say only banks that got bailed out should be taxed and 72% want other bailed out companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac taxed as well. Scott Rasmussen has recently had several columns published in the Wall Street Journal addressing how President Obama is losing independent voters , health care reform, the President's approval ratings, and how Obama won the White House by campaigning like Ronald Reagan. If you'd like Scott Rasmussen to speak at your meeting, retreat, or conference, contact Premiere Speakers Bureau. You can also learn about Scott's favorite place on earth or his time working with hockey legend Gordie Howe. It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. President Obama's numbers are always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That's because some of the President's most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote. It is also important to check the details of question wording when comparing approval ratings from different firms. (More Below) Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our “unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy.” Data from the Washington Post confirms that Rasmussen Reports was well ahead of other media coverage on the Massachusetts Senate race. In the 2009 New Jersey Governor’s race, automated polls tended to be more accurate than operator-assisted polling techniques. On reviewing the state polling results from 2009, Mickey Kaus offered this assessment, “If you have a choice between Rasmussen and, say, the prestigious N.Y. Times, go with Rasmussen!” During Election 2008, liberal blogger Nate Silver said that the Rasmussen tracking poll “would probably be the one I'd want with me on a desert island." In 2008, Obama won 53%-46% and our final poll showed Obama winning 52% to 46%. While we were pleased with the final result, Rasmussen Reports was especially pleased with the stability of our results. On every single day for the last six weeks of the campaign, our daily tracking showed Obama with a stable and solid lead attracting more than 50% of the vote. An analysis by Pollster.com partner Charles Franklin “found that despite identically sized three-day samples, the Rasmussen daily tracking poll is less variable than Gallup.” During Election 2008, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll was the least volatile of all those tracking the race. We also have provided a summary of our 2008 state-by-state Presidential results for your review. In 2004 George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote while John Kerry earned 48.3%. Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project both candidates’ totals within half a percentage point by projecting that Bush would win 50.2% to 48.5%. (see our 2004 results). See also our 2008 state results for Senate and governor. See 2006 results for Senate and governor. Pollster.com founder Mark Blumenthal noted that “independent analyses from the National Council on Public Polls, the American Association for Public Opinion Research, the Pew Research Center, the Wall Street Journal and FiveThirtyEight.com have all shown that the horse-race numbers produced by automated telephone surveys did at least as well as those from conventional live-interviewer surveys in predicting election outcomes.” Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters--is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Premium Members. Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. Over the past five years, the number of Democrats in the country has increased while the number of Republicans has decreased. Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 37.1% Democrats, 32.4% Republicans, and 30.5% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly smaller advantage for the Democrats. A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning. Other stats on Obama are updated daily on the Rasmussen Reports Obama By the Numbers page. We also invite you to review other recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls. To get a sense of longer-term trends, check out our month-by-month review of the President’s numbers.
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It will be another 48 - 72 hours before the real impact of last nights SOTU Address is measurable.
Lets see how Obama blames Bush tonight....
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