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Title: A Future No One is Going to Like
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Published: Jan 9, 2018
Author: sneakypete
Post Date: 2018-01-09 09:47:43 by sneakypete
Ping List: *Science and technology* Subscribe to *Science and technology*
Keywords: population control, Robots, technology
Views: 2297
Comments: 22
A Future No One is Going to Like Ok,first of all,you need to know that *I* do NOT promote or support this future. I am just calling them the way I see them,and hopefully,opening a few eyes so that some people can try to prepare themselves to deal with it. I would LIKE to think I can "shout this warning" and enough people will take notice to alter it sufficiently to make it less brutal,but make no mistake about it,voluntarily or involuntarily,these things WILL be happening. To start off with you need to understand how current and future technical advances will create conditions that make all the conditions exist that will demand the changes. Technology is neither moral or immoral,and it can't be stopped because the key characteristic that caused mankind to evolve and dominate the planet is that it is in our DNA to ask ourselves "WHY?",and "What can I do about it?" when facing problems. You can no more turn that off than you can stop the sun from rising. You also need to understand that the other prime reason mankind came to dominate the world is our sex drive,and our desire to have children. Many,many children in more primitive times when birth control was non-existent and many of the children that did get born died of diseases,accidents,and lack of life-saving medical care long before they could become adults themselves and be counted on to feed,clothe,and house their parents who were by then too old to work and provide for themselves. Modern times have changed this "given" to a certain extent. MOST educated people of today understand it costs a lot of money to raise and educate a child,and choose to have much smaller families. I am betting the vast majority of what are middle-class families these days are composed of a husband,wife,and 2 children. On the other hand,we have the perpetually poor,who are comprised of a majority of the worlds population who don't seem to give a damn,who pump out baby after baby despite KNOWING they can't afford to feed,clothe,and give them medical attention. Because of this attitude,the 3rd world outnumbers the 1st world. This has gone on since the dawn of mankind,and the results have always been pretty damn brutal from the POV of the typical humanitarian 1st World resident. For example,the cave man tribes that discovered fire and could be bothered to gather and store firewood in dry places so they could survive the winter flourished,and the tribes that didn't either froze to death,starved to death,or were killed off by the cavemen who had fire to keep from freezing and to cook meat so they wouldn't starve to death. There is a term that is going to seriously piss off the religious faithful that comes into play,and regardless of how you feel about it,it IS the engine that drives our future and always has been. That word is "Evolution". Mankind adapts and survives. Any "tribe" of people who refuse to adapt to changing times and conditions soon becomes bones to be studied by future generations of archeologists. Think of Evolution as a tiny snowball that starts rolling down a mountainside,getting larger and larger with each roll (generation) until it becomes an enormous ball of snow and ice that flattens anything that gets in it's way,and you won't be far off the mark. Fire was obviously the first major force for human change. It just flat changed everything. Suddenly,people had the ability to socialize with each other after it became dark. The fire kept beasts of prey away,and it gave them light so they could draw animals and learn to communicate with other other in a different way. They suddenly had "leisure hours". Time that was NOT devoted entirely on surviving another day. This lit the spark of creativity,and led to things like drawing maps and hunting plans in the mud of the cave so they could plan the next day's hunt. Which in turn eventually led to alphabets and writing. I guess without looking it up that steam power was the next great leap forward for mankind. Suddenly they could create massive machines that could do more work and produce more goods each day than hundreds of men laboring could produce. it even provided transportation so the goods produced could be delivered to the buyers quickly on trains. Which was followed by electricity,or course. Which in turn led to computing using vacuum tubes and enormous machines that filled whole buildings that were less capable than the computer I am using to post this article today. If you had this computer and software 50 years ago,you could have ruled the world. Yet there are still people who are faced with the choice of either allowing their small children to starve to death or die of an easily cured disease,or die themselves. Somewhere along the evolutionary climb to the 21st Century,these people decided to take a nap or three. Nobody is going to like this,but these people are still stuck on the level of mankind of 500 years or more ago,and they have no actual interest in learning anything new. So,being the comfortable and safe humans that those of us in most 1st world countries are,we try to help these people,totally ignoring the FACT that you can't help someone that doesn't want to be helped. Part of that "help" involved importing them to 1st World countries,or allowing them to come to the 1st world countries "for the easy living". For the most part,these people have zero interest in learning or earning anything,and every interest in taking everything they can get and demanding more because that is how their culture has taught them to think. All this leads us to a huge "technology snow ball" that is rolling down the mountainside to crush US financially and radically alter our culture even if the 3rd world had remained at home. That snowball is named "Robots",and it is going to literally be the kiss of death to the working class families in the west. Factories that have been hiring hundreds of workers to create their products will be down to just a handful of technicians to keep the software and hardware updated,and to supervise the machines. The biggest change,and one that is unprecedented in all of history is there are not going to be any new jobs come forward as a result of this technological advance to replace the lost jobs. Even IF there were "new tech" jobs created,probably 75 percent or more of the working class would have the mental ability to learn the technology to manipulate them. Inevitably this will lead to "over population" in the sense we will have far too high a percentage of our populations employed or otherwise kept busy. Even if the planet can absorb the population,there will be no where for them to work or live and no money for them to pay for food,clothing,shelter,or medical care. And THESE are your friends,relatives,and neighbors I am talking about here,not someone from a remote jungle Stone Age tribe somewhere. Which is obviously going to lead to population conflicts. We like to think of ourselves as civilized people,but you ain't seen mean until you have seen people "3 days hungry and looking for food to feed their families". The thin coat of civilization we all wear will come off,and there will be bodies stacked up in the streets. The obvious question is "Can we prepare ourselves for this,or even better,come up with a solution to prevent it from happening?" You ain't going to like the answer,which is "Maybe to a LIMITED extent,but you can't stop the advance of civilization/technology. Once an idea has sprung forward into the light of day and started to spread,there ain't no way to "unthink it". Here is the way *I* see things. 1: First of all,we MUST stop allowing foreigners into our country from ANYWHERE unless they can start contributing the very day they step foot on American soil. I don't care if it is your Aunt Edna's son from London. If he can't contribute something special,he doesn't get in because EVERY FOREIGNER THAT COMES IN RESULTS IN ONE AMERICAN LOSING THAT JOB. It should go without saying that damn few 3rd world people should be allowed for ANY reason,and that the ones already here need to be herded about boats and sent back to where they came from. 2: Two words that strike fear into the hearts of everyone,everywhere,population control. We can start out with encouraging people to limit the size of their families to 1 or 2 children,but make no mistake about it,eventually we will be making birth control or even sterilization mandatory for anyone that fathered or gave birth to 2 children. The ugly truth NONE of us want to face is that eventually people with IQ's below a certain level or who have emotional/mental problems that can't be cured will be facing mandatory sterilizations. There are no alternatives to population control in a future world where all the physical work is going to be done by robots. Organized religion is going to blow gaskets because they will see their political power,as well as the size of their weekly contributions shrink rapidly,but they are just going to have to get mad. Yeah,the new "robot world" will be able to increase production of everything including non-meat food,but even then there is a limit. There is no question we in the west will be able to create enough food and shelter to provide for a relatively high number of "non-contributors". The question boils down to "How many,and who gets to choose?" Until and unless we start populating colonies on other planets,I don't see any other options. It's going to be the haves against the have nots,and it's going to be brutal both physically and emotionally. I don't care who you are or where you are from or what you state is your philosophy of life,NOBODY wants to make sacrifices to provide for their own families,and then see other families making no sacrifices and getting a equal cut of the pie. You can change many things,but you can't change human nature. PLEASE feel free to offer comments proving me wrong. Poster Comment: Discuss,chill-runs,but please leave the weapons at home.
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#1. To: sneakypete (#0)
I agree with the employment assessment. Automation and robots are simply going to reduce the average number of hours every week each able bodied adult will need to work to generate the same amount of national output of goods & services from the current (or recent) 35-40 hours to perhaps 10-15 hours. This has already started. That will mean national employment drops to about 30% of what it was in, perhaps the year 2000, which of course means about a 70% unemployment rate (though of course the method of measuring it will change so the gov won't say it looks that high). But in this scenario, why would it be an evolutionary advantage to live in a country like that, where most people will be in poverty unless there is some kind of mass redistribution of wealth to the unemployed? In less developed countries without automation, small farms make up a much higher percentage of the employed population. Yes they are poor, but they at least have all the food they need. And where there is food, everything else follows. Tear down a city but leave the food, and the city will be rebuilt. Take away food from a city and the city will crumble. I think if people cannot buy food from the economy, then over the long term they will simply be forced to return to farming it themselves, albeit with robots and such as well. That means more independence and separation from "the grid", both economically, and politically. Just as big corps have been forced to downsize and outsource since the 80's (save Google, Amazon and the like) the fed gov will also be forced to downsize. Obviously it won't be pretty given it's massive debt which will be defaulted upon as a consequence. In this scenario, immigrants, whether legal or illegal, will simply have the same problem as the middle class citizens, and those problems will make it irrelevant whether they are citizens or not.
I am no expert on farming,but I am guessing people in Wisconsin,for example,may have trouble growing crops in December.
In the entire history of the world,the only nations that had to build walls to keep their own citizens from leaving were those with leftist governments.
Historically there are a lot of things that can curb overpopulation, disease, war, natural disasters, droughts, government genocide, and probably a few more that I forgot to mention. Some sort of asteroid event, solar flare ups, mad scientists? The list of possibilities is virtually endless. Mother Nature/God has a way of balancing things out. For instance, antibiotics are wonderful but organisms evolve to defeat them and "improved" ones are made and defeated. They say that at some tipping over point the germs may very well win, resulting in mass deaths. petey, I enjoyed reading your treatise on the future. Very readable and interesting. I will contemplate your ideas this afternoon and may come back and discuss. I see your population control idea in the future as impractical. What will the Catholic Church do without more bodies and contributors? p.s. I went to church on Sunday.
I went to church on Sunday. Papist puppet! Interesting treatise. I see the future considerably differently, and more optimistically - though my form of optimism is its own kind of chilling. First, let me answer your question "who gets to choose?" The answer is the same as it always has been: the nobility. And while what constitutes the quasi-nobility varies from culture to culture (warrior caste in some, financial wealth in others, religious leadership in others), true nobility is not constituted by affiliation but is sui generis to the individual, and is a natural pair of traits: charisma coupled with intelligence. Marilyn Monroe was charismatic, but she was an airhead. Not noble. Stephen Hawkins is a genius, but he's a horror show to look at. Not noble. The charismatic will always tend towards the top, because their innate features cause people to WANT to follow them for some reason. But only those with the intelligence to exploit their natural leadership take them to the top of political, economic, military or ecclesiastical power. That is a universal of humanity, and it will not change. So, what the future will be will very much be determined by the personal characteristics of the charismatic leaders of the future. In ANY case, the technological march to which you referred will continue apace, and that will have interesting effects. You have correctly identified that robotization will lead to less need for workers. And you've postulated a dystopia that assumes that economic laws of industrial society are rigid, and that a certain set of beliefs prevails. There are other paths, however. For example - the realization that when the cost of labor is reduced to nearly zero, and the cost of commodities is likewise reduced to very low levels, with efficient machines it is possible to produce sufficient clothing for everybody on earth at a trivial cost - this is what the technology offers. Now, that could be very bad for workers - for how will they be able to buy the clothes? But then again, when Chinese-manufactured tee-shirts already cost about $0.40 cents to make, including all raw materials and manufacturing and labor, further automation can only take the price lower, say to 25 cents. At that point, for everybody in the world to be GIVEN 7 shirts each, one clean for each day, would cost less than two billion dollars, And for $20 billion dollars, total, the entire world could be given 70 tee-shirts per person...or other clothing. In other words, the cost to clothe the entire world, for free, in basic cotton clothes would be about $20 billion - a trivial amount of money in a $20 trillion dollar world economy. Clothing is perishable, but giving everybody in the world his or her full free wardrobe for free every year would cost about $2.50 cents per person, then. Once production of the basic necessities is fully automated, the truth is that the cost of all of the goods vital to human survival, from basic housing to clothing, is trivial, and those necessities could be provided for free. Food is more labor intensive, but not dramatically so. Truth is, full automation does not create the problem of starving workers. It COULD, if the economic paradigm were to remain the same, then mass unemployment would create revolutionary conditions and desperate poverty. If the nobility of that era is like the French nobility circa 1789, then they will unimaginatively dig in and try to defend their "turf". On the other hand, if the nobility of that future era has a different view, it is very easy to see the economy of the world bifurcated into "necessities of life", given away for free, in copious quantities at low cost because of the cheapness of manufacture, and "luxuries" which are limited by scarcity. Housing, clothing and basics such as furniture, comfortable beds, simple entertainment such as televisions and computers - can all through automation be reduced in cost to the point that they can be distributed for free to everybody in the world, thereby quelling any likelihood of revolution. Food will be the intermediate product that will require effort, but with all of that leisure time, food production is something that CAN be "miniaturized" into small-plot personal gardens that can produce a lot of food for families that use their copious free time to do that, and who are taught the skills of small-plot vegetable growing as part of the schools system. Essentially, automation and miniaturization, and further advances in food technology, offer the possibility of eliminating scarcity of basic needs as an economic pressure. Basic needs: clothing, housing, food, and also entertainment needs (which are a basic need for a peaceful, non-turbulent society), can be reduced to practically no cost, and given away. Truth is, an intensively farmed half-acre plot with simple hand-tools can feed a family of four almost everything they need, without a tremendous amount of effort. If the nobility of the future break the paradigm, they will realize that the need for "full employment" to provide the basic needs of man will have been obviated by robots. Most people will not NEED to work, and simple gardening is not very demanding but can produce a great deal of fresh food. Many people live on worse than that today, but with that, a relatively content world is envisionable. Technology is also advancing in genetics, which holds forth the possibility of the existing nobility propagating itself through the genetic selection of their offspring. Of course nature itself already produces the nobility, so there would be those born naturally as the leaders, and then those genetically prepared by intelligent selection to be "better". With peace and advancement, technological applications of genetics are likely to create a higher order of human who would be, relative to normals, the same as a human today relative to chimps. Essentially, some men will turn their children's children into gods (relative to men). And then everything will depend entirely on the personal characters of the gods. Which will mean that the character of education - whether it is kind and expansive, or brutal and disciplinarian - will make all of the difference.
Global overpopulation will irreparably damage the Earth's resources & disrupting the food chain.... Border walls, birth control & robots won't stop pandemic diseases & global famine. It'll be worse than the Black Death Plague of the Dark Ages... Humanity will fester & decay in a global-sized cesspit of its own making.
You are a bountiful ball of joy & beaming ray of sunshine to brighten our days, aren't you?
Ruskie robots voted for Trump. Artificial Intelligence haz prevailed comrade! I agree with you, we need to shut down international travel, it is the source of pollution and spread of disease and ignorance, afterall, we have the communication technology that makes travel redundant. Next we need to shut down international trade, it is the source of pollution, spread of disease and ignorance. We foreigners have only enriched america with our art and culture but if you want to remain ignorant, that is OK with us What we want is America to contribute something positive to the world of today, we know they can do it, they did it in the twentieth century
I have friends in Maryland who grow their own veggies and can them all and pretty much have veggies for the whole year. And they don't have a farm. They have a garden in the suburbs, and it's not even as big as one might expect. A more serious outfit I know has green houses which they are able to keep above freezing in winter with heat generated from decomposition of mulch & fertilizer. Certainly in Wisconsin, that would be a bigger challenge and may require less natural heating, and certainly the more reduced sunlight at those northern lattitudes would also be an issue, but it's a method to grow food for at least a few more months each year than would ordinarily be possible. But again, one can grow a lot of food for the year just in spring and summer.
Please do. What will the Catholic Church do without more bodies and contributors? Up the fees for a quarter acre in Heaven? That is one aspect that practically nobody is going to like,but it's not going to make any difference if you like it or not. You aren't going to have a choice. Nobody is,but the elites that run the system. Big shock there,huh? In the entire history of the world,the only nations that had to build walls to keep their own citizens from leaving were those with leftist governments.
You have a MUCH higher opinion of human nature and people in leadership positions than I do. IMHO,they will follow the path of least resistance,and sit back and wait for the die-off to end,and then swoop in and confiscate all the property. Don't forget,in MY vision of the future,the world is being ran by a Corporate board ran by international bankers. They ain't exactly known for their compassion. In the entire history of the world,the only nations that had to build walls to keep their own citizens from leaving were those with leftist governments.
I think I will call you "Mister Sunshine",Willie. You're just too damn cheerful for your own good.
In the entire history of the world,the only nations that had to build walls to keep their own citizens from leaving were those with leftist governments.
True,but you are going to have to use some of your crops to feed the armed guards you have to hire to protect them. In the entire history of the world,the only nations that had to build walls to keep their own citizens from leaving were those with leftist governments.
Don't forget,in MY vision of the future,the world is being ran by a Corporate board ran by international bankers. They ain't exactly known for their compassion. That's entirely possible. I am hopeful that the better angels of our nature will ultimately prevail. We did, finally, abolish slavery and debtor's prison, so I have some basis for my hope.
Yet there are still people who are faced with the choice of either allowing their small children to starve to death or die of an easily cured disease,or die themselves. Somewhere along the evolutionary climb to the 21st Century,these people decided to take a nap or three. Nobody is going to like this,but these people are still stuck on the level of mankind of 500 years or more ago,and they have no actual interest in learning anything new. Explain the evolution that happened in the 20th century? You can't it didn't. Your predictions are so cute. Not that I disagree with everything you wrote.
You have to be kidding! The western world basically transitioned from the Middle Ages to the Industrial Age,practically overnight. Compare life for the typical resident of London,Paris,NYC,Atlanta,etc,etc,etc of 1900 with the life of those same people even in 1950,and it's almost like magic. Compare life for the typical westerner in 1900 to their lives in 2018,and it's science fiction no one from 1900 would believe. Now lets compare the lives of the typical 3rd world citzen from 1900 to 2018,and it's a flat line if you remove all the food,medical supplies and care,and all the other help they get from the western world. Hell,they are still eating each other and raping infants to "cure VD". In the entire history of the world,the only nations that had to build walls to keep their own citizens from leaving were those with leftist governments.
Evolution not technological advances
You seriously think you can separate the two? In the entire history of the world,the only nations that had to build walls to keep their own citizens from leaving were those with leftist governments.
Vicomte13 ---- Essentially, automation and miniaturization, and further advances in food technology, offer the possibility of eliminating scarcity of basic needs as an economic pressure. Basic needs: clothing, housing, food, and also entertainment needs (which are a basic need for a peaceful, non-turbulent society), can be reduced to practically no cost, and given away. Seems to me that plain old self defense would answer the question of, -- "How many,and who gets to choose?" Everyone would have to get their basic needs, 'given away', gratis.. ---- So that those who want to produce and create, could live free...
Mostly free. But yes.
#2. To: Pinguinite (#1)
#3. To: sneakypete (#0)
#4. To: sneakypete (#0)
#5. To: Fred Mertz (#4)
#6. To: sneakypete (#0)
#7. To: sneakypete (#0)
#8. To: Willie Green (#7)
Global overpopulation will irreparably damage the Earth's resources & disrupting the food chain.... Border walls, birth control & robots won't stop pandemic diseases & global famine. It'll be worse than the Black Death Plague of the Dark Ages... Humanity will fester & decay in a global-sized cesspit of its own making.
#9. To: Willie Green (#7)
Humanity will fester & decay in a global-sized cesspit of its own making.
#10. To: sneakypete (#0)
1: First of all,we MUST stop allowing foreigners into our country from ANYWHERE unless they can start contributing the very day they step foot on American soil.
#11. To: sneakypete (#2)
I am no expert on farming,but I am guessing people in Wisconsin,for example,may have trouble growing crops in December.
#12. To: Fred Mertz (#4)
I will contemplate your ideas this afternoon and may come back and discuss.
#13. To: Vicomte13 (#6)
#14. To: Willie Green (#7)
#15. To: Pinguinite (#11)
A more serious outfit I know has green houses which they are able to keep above freezing in winter with heat generated from decomposition of mulch & fertilizer. Certainly in Wisconsin, that would be a bigger challenge and may require less natural heating, and certainly the more reduced sunlight at those northern lattitudes would also be an issue, but it's a method to grow food for at least a few more months each year than would ordinarily be possible.
#16. To: sneakypete (#13)
You have a MUCH higher opinion of human nature and people in leadership positions than I do. IMHO,they will follow the path of least resistance,and sit back and wait for the die-off to end,and then swoop in and confiscate all the property.
#17. To: sneakypete (#0)
50 years ago,you could have ruled the world.
#18. To: A K A Stone (#17)
Explain the evolution that happened in the 20th century?
#19. To: sneakypete (#18)
#20. To: A K A Stone (#19)
(Edited)
Evolution not technological advances
#21. To: Vicomte13, y'all, sneakypete (#6)
Sneakypete,---- the new "robot world" will be able to increase production of everything including non-meat food,but even then there is a limit. There is no question we in the west will be able to create enough food and shelter to provide for a relatively high number of "non-contributors". The question boils down to "How many,and who gets to choose?"
#22. To: tpaine (#21)
Everyone would have to get their basic needs, 'given away', gratis.. ---- So that those who want to produce and create, could live free...
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