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International News Title: How Putin outwitted the West Saddam Hussein hanged: is Iraq a better place? A safer place? Gaddafi murdered in front of the viewers: is Libya a better place? Now we are demonising Assad. Can we try to draw lessons? Sergei Lavrov, Russian foreign minister, United Nations, 1 October Russia was right about Iraq and Libya, and America and Britain were dead wrong. Regime change doesnt seem to have changed Middle Eastern countries for the better, as Vladimir Putin has been warning for years. His policy is not to support any armed groups that attempt to resolve internal problems through force by which he means rebels, moderate or otherwise. In his words, the Kremlin always has a nasty feeling that if such armed groups get support from abroad, the situation can end up deadlocked. We never know the true goals of these freedom fighters and we are concerned that the region could descend into chaos. Yet after a decade and a half of scolding the West for non-UN-sanctioned military interventions, Putin has now unilaterally committed Russian forces to what the former CIA director General David Petraeus calls the geopolitical Chernobyl of Syria. Russia finds itself allied with Syria, Iraq and Iran a new coalition no less, as Syrias president Bashar al-Assad described it on Iranian state TV last week. How and why did Putin fail to take his own advice about the unintended consequences that breed in middle-eastern quagmires? And most importantly, how has he managed so far at least to make Russias intervention in Syria into something close to a diplomatic triumph? Russias decisive intervention has left Barack Obama and David Cameron looking weak and confused. When the usually steadfastly patriotic readers of the New York Daily News were asked whether Putin or Obama had the stronger arguments, 96 per cent said Putin. In Britain even hawks like Sir Max Hastings no friend of the Kremlin are arguing that Russia can help beat Isis. And most importantly, Putin stole the show at the United Nations General Assembly last month with an impassioned speech denouncing the whole US-backed project of democracy in the Middle East at its very root. The Arab Spring has been a catastrophe, Putin argued, and the western countries who encouraged Arab democrats to rise against their corrupt old rulers opened a Pandoras box of troubles. Instead of the triumph of democracy and progress, we got violence, poverty and social disaster, he told assembled delegates, in remarks aimed squarely at the White House. Nobody cares about human rights, including the right to life. I cannot help asking those who have forced this situation, do you realise what you have done? It was quite a sight: a Russian president taking the moral high ground against an American president and getting away with it. Its a message that encapsulates Putins world-view. Stability and predictability are better than the uncertainties of democracy and revolution thats been the Kremlins line ever since a wave of colour revolutions swept away Putins allies across the former Soviet bloc. When the Arab Spring obliterated Russian buddies Hosni Mubarak in Egypt and Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, he had just the same idea. The Assad family allies that Putin inherited from the days of Leonid Brezhnev are simply the last of Moscows allies left standing in a world turned upside down by people power and its unpredictable consequences. In backing Assad, Putin is pushing back not just against the West and its support for democracy, but against the whole idea of popular revolt against authority. Putin has emerged from his Syria gamble looking decisive because he at least knows who his allies are and, no less importantly, who his enemies are. The US and UK, on the other hand, are against almost every major group fighting in Syria. The West opposes not just Assad and his allies (in the form of Lebanese Hezbollah forces and Iranian Revolutionary Guards) but almost every one of his opponents, in the form of Islamic State, the al-Qaeda offshoot Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham. True, there are a handful of moderate Syrian Sunni opposition groups which have received arms and training from the CIA. In Washington, you still hear fantasies of an apolitical, nonsectarian and highly integrated new Syrian opposition army being sent forth to hold territory against both Assad and the jihadis, creating an inclusive government for all. Just this week David Cameron said he wanted Assad out because he would not be accepted by all Syrians. It is as if he still thinks straightforward regime change is possible. That kind of strategy might have sounded good in 2001 but its hard to swallow after the utter collapse of US-trained local forces in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. In Syria the most effective US-backed, anti-Isis troops on the ground are the Kurdish rebels of the YPG but the US has been powerless to stop its Nato ally Turkey from bombing the YPG in retaliation for a Kurdish insurgency inside Turkey that has little to do with the Syrian civil war. Nor has the US been able to protect two of the Syrian Sunni opposition groups that it backs from Moscows airstrikes Russian jets have already hit the front-line positions of Tajammu al-Aaza in Talbiseh and Jaish al-Tawhid (part of the Free Syrian Army) on the outskirts of Al-Lataminah. On day one, you can say it was a one-time mistake, a senior US official told the Wall Street Journal after an allied rebel groups headquarters was destroyed. But on day three and day four, theres no question its intentional. They know what theyre hitting. Protests by London and Washington have been politely ignored by Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, who speaks of fighting terrorism together. But its precisely because Putin has been proved right about the dangers of intervention that his own adventure in Syria is likely to end badly. For one, its a myth that Assad is the main bulwark against Isis in Syria. According to figures from IHS Janes, only 6 per cent of the Syrian regime armys 982 operations last year were actually directed against Isis. Most of Assads attacks including with Scud missiles and the infamous barrel bombs dropped from helicopters on residential areas targeted groups that opposed Isis, thereby helping pave the way for Isis to take over Raqqa and the oilfields of northern Syria. And as Nato found out in Libya, air campaigns can produce unpredictable results. Even with hundreds of thousands of boots on the ground, as the coalition had in Iraq, US commander David Petraeus found that you cant kill or capture your way out of an industrial-strength insurgency. The Russian operation in Syria is minuscule compared to the vast bases like Camp Victory that Halliburton built for the US military in Iraq, which looked like major airports and boasted full-scale food courts, shopping malls and acres of air-conditioned accommodation. Reports so far show a shipshape but tiny Russian operation, complete with a field bakery, a portable laundry and a single squadron of aircraft as well as some combat helicopters. With this relatively small military force, Putin has achieved remarkable diplomatic leverage and halted any renewed western attempts to depose Assad. But even the Kremlin cannot believe that Russian air power alone can deliver Assad victory. One senior British diplomat in the region expects the Russian airstrikes to be followed up with an Iranian-led ground offensive possibly led by Irans general Qasem Soleimani, who visited Moscow earlier this summer. That puts Russian-backed guys in the field into hostile contact with US-backed guys, says the diplomat. Thats what we used to call a proxy war. There is also dangerous potential for direct escalation deliberate or accidental with Nato too. Russian and Nato planes could be flying in the same skies against different targets with no co-ordinated traffic control. Already a Russian jet has been intercepted by Turkish Air Force F-16s after allegedly violating Turkish (i.e. Nato) airspace. If Cameron calls for airstrikes on Syria and the body language from Westminster suggests that a parliamentary vote is in prospect then this should give his MPs pause. Why send the RAF into this mess, and risk entanglement with Russia and a far wider conflagration? Putins intervention has certainly cast Assad a lifeline. Russian TV regularly shows images of happy Syrians watching Putin on the television with rapt attention, or waving Russian flags. But it may end up prolonging the war, since the Russian deployment has put paid to western plans for a no-fly zone to protect civilians in built-up areas. Assad will doubtless now attempt the impossible recapturing the 80 per cent of Syria that he has lost since the beginning of the insurgency that has cost 220,000 lives so far. So Russias intervention may, ironically, end up strengthening the hand of Isis and other Sunni extremists who see Assads Alawite sect as apostates, who are now backed not only by Shia Iranians but Russian Orthodox infidels too. But fundamentally, Putin is much more interested in being seen to project Russian power than in fixing Syrias war. His aim is to hold up Britain and America as paper tigers whose indecision has created a policy vacuum on Syria, into which Putin has confidently stepped. The Russian operation is small and portable enough for Putin to be able to roll it up in a week and declare victory if and when the going gets tough. That, as he knows, is more than Britain and America have been able to do in any of our recent wars. Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread Top Page Up Full Thread Page Down Bottom/Latest Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 19.
#5. To: TooConservative (#0)
Birds of a feather stick together, or is it lowlifes???
I see a summary of Arab relations with Russia on FP's site. This is an excerpt. That same month in New York, I sat down with Churkin at the Russian mission to the U.N. on East 67th Street over tea and cookies and asked him explain his countrys seemingly unshakeable commitment to the Syrian leader. ... What was motivating Russias support for Assads government, I asked. Was it fear that the ouster of Assad would fuel terrorism that could reach back to Russia? Or was it concern that the ouster would undercut Russias interests in its naval base at Tartus? ... From a personal standpoint, he said, he considered it a matter of national honor to stand up for Russias friends. We are stronger on our allegiances than others, I think, and this is being recognized internationally, he said. Being a Russian diplomat, for us, if you have good relations with a country, a government, for years, for decades, then its not so easy to ditch those politicians and those governments because of political expediency. Churkins remarks appeared aimed at the United States, which had overthrown Iraqs Saddam Hussein and stood aside as Mubarak was pushed from power and ultimately replaced by Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood. The United States had made peace with Qaddafi in 2006, only to cut him loose after leading what it described as a limited military intervention designed to prevent a mass slaughter in the city of Benghazi. Russia abstained on the U.N. Security Council resolution authorizing the intervention in Libya and later cited Qaddafis fall as further evidence that the West cynically invokes human rights to mask its efforts to remove regimes that have fallen from favor. Churkin suggested that other leaders in the region would realize that when push comes to shove Russia could be trusted more than the United States to back its friends. Three years later, the regions newest leaders appear to have taken note. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, a former general who toppled Morsi in a 2013 coup, meanwhile, has paid four visits to Moscow since taking power. Putin, meanwhile, was the first foreign leader of a major power to visit Cairo after Sisis coup. The Russian leader received a heros welcome, with an Egyptian military band playing the Russian national anthem and school children chanting, Putin, Putin, Sisi, Sisi, according to an account in the Financial Times. I am filled with joy that President Vladimir Putin visits Cairo at this time to confirm Russias solidarity with Egypt in its war against terrorism, Sisi told Putin, adding that the two countries would discuss stepped-up military cooperation. But Gulf States like Saudi Arabia, which remains bitterly opposed to Russian support for Assad, have nevertheless been building bridges with Putin. In June, Saudi Arabias deputy crown prince and defense minister, Mohammed bin Salman, visited Putin in St. Petersburg, where he signed a number of agreements to share nuclear technology and step up cooperation in the oil and space exploration fields. Even Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has traditionally enjoyed cool relations with Putin, visited Moscow last month to lobby the Russian leader to do his best to ensure that advanced weapons in Syria wont be used to help arm Hezbollah, with whom Israel fought a devastating war in 2006. The depth of Egypts and other Arab governments relations with Russia may be very shallow, said Michael Hanna, an expert on Egypt at the Century Foundation. In times of crisis in relations with the United States, Arab governments will try to curry favor with Moscow. And in some ways, its easy. Moscow asks no questions about human rights and democracy and elections they just dont care. But Hanna added: I think there is a bizarre kind of grudging respect in parts of the Arab world for what they see as Russian steadfastness and decisiveness in contrast to what they perceive as the dithering of the United States. Egypt has moved strongly toward Russia, something almost unnoticed in the American press. Weapons sales and some kind of a deal for an expanded Egyptian nuclear reactor program seems likely. We have to expect the Saudis and the Turks and the Egyptians will develop their own nuclear weapons (or bring themselves to the "brink" as Iran has done). Egypt and the Saudis undoubtedly see Russia as a better ally and supplier in pursuing that goal. This is the almost inevitable nuclearization of the Mideast in addition to the three nuclear states in the east, Pakistan and India and China. Nukes have slowly spread from China west, to India, to Pakistan, now to Iran. It won't stop until the Saudis, Turks and Egyptians have nukes (or breakout capability).
There are many American interventionists that want Assad to fall because they are zionists or Christian zionists and have bought into this fantasy of Iran wanting to initiate the end of the world to bring about the Mahdi, etc. They believe that wholeheartedly. I have seen conservative freepers who are probably either Jews or Christian zionists say outright "fuck the Arab Christians" as long as we weaken Iran and take Syria from them. I think the Likudniks were shocked at the way Hezbollah defeated them in Lebanon (by holding their ground) and this put the fear the God that abandoned them in their zionist hearts. For the first time Israel went to war and failed in all their objectives against basically a local militia. Fear makes people do stupid things. The Sunni Gulf states are also afraid that Iraq is now a Shia stronghold. The Israelis are afraid of Iran also. Syria has become a proxy war over that.
I would love to see a post from you proving that. Two instances will suffice.
Its not the job of United States foreign policy to protect Christians everywhere in the world. Certainly not for Christians who have had more than a dozen centuries to realize they were living in enemy territory and do something about it. 75 posted on 10/8/2015, 5:27:20 PM by Boogieman and http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3333934/posts?page=24#24 The fact that Iran and Russia support Assad should be your first clue that Assad is not a good guy and his objective is to attack American and Israeli interests. I could care less if he is protective of Syrian Christians. 24 posted on 9/7/2015, 2:02:23 PM by kabar 2 it is
Ahh, I forget you are confused about the difference between neocons and conservatives. My bad.
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