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Title: Ben Carson Edging Close to Front-Runner Trump in Latest Iowa Poll
Source:
Bloomberg
URL Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/ ... nner-trump-in-latest-iowa-poll
Published: Aug 30, 2015
Author: John McCormick
Post Date: 2015-08-30 07:49:43 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 1020
Comments: 19
Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has emerged as a leading Republican presidential candidate in Iowa and is closing in on frontrunner Donald Trump in the state that hosts the first 2016 nomination balloting contest. The latest Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows billionaire Trump with the support of 23 percent of likely Republican caucus participants, followed by Carson at 18 percent. When first and second choices are combined, Carson is tied with Trump. Trump finds himself in a vastly better position than when the previous Iowa Poll was taken. He has become a credible presidential candidate to many likely Republican caucus-goers. The real estate mogul is rated favorably by 61 percent and unfavorably by 35 percent, an almost complete reversal since the Iowa Poll in May. He finds his highest ratings among those planning to attend the caucuses for the first time (69 percent) and limited-government Tea Party activists (73 percent). Just 29 percent say they could never vote for him, a number cut in half since May. Although he isn't generating the headlines enjoyed by Trump, Carson has quietly built a dedicated network of supporters in Iowa. During the past month, he also aired more ads than any other presidential candidate in Iowa. Carson has the highest favorability rating among Republican candidates, with 79 percent of likely GOP caucus-goers seeing him positively. Read the methodology and questions here Those glowing views of Carson, who has a compelling life story and is seeking to become the nation's second black president, could make it hard for Trump or other rivals to attack him as the campaign heats up this fall. Christian conservatives, who represent nearly 40 percent of likely caucus participants in the poll, may be starting to coalesce around the former director of pediatric neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins. The poll displays the political benefit, at least for now, of not being part of the Republican establishment. When their totals are combined, Trump and Carson -- two men without any elected experience -- are backed by more than 4 in 10 likely caucus participants. Add in former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, who also has never held elective office, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who is running an explicitly anti-establishment campaign, and the total reaches 54 percent of the likely electorate. "Trump and Carson, one bombastic and the other sometimes soft-spoken, could hardly be more different in their outward presentations," said J. Ann Selzer, president of West Des Moines-based Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. "Yet they're both finding traction because they don't seem like politicians and there's a strong demand for that right now." Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, the previous Iowa frontrunner, has been hurt the most by the Trump and Carson summer surges and is now backed by just 8 percent of likely caucus-goers, less than half what he recorded in the last Iowa Poll in late May. Cruz, who will need to cut into Carson's support among social conservatives if he's to advance in Iowa, is tied with Walker at 8 percent. Jeb Bush, who continues to face major headwinds in Iowa, scored below Walker and Cruz. The former Florida governor is backed by just 6 percent, has one of the highest unfavorable ratings among the 17 Republican candidates tested, and has the support of just 16 percent of those who consider themselves business-oriented establishment Republicans, the group most central to his brand. Bush's fellow Floridian, Senator Marco Rubio, is also backed by 6 percent. He's closely followed by Fiorina, who is supported by 5 percent after her strong showing in the Aug. 6 debate. In the 2008 and 2012 Republican caucuses, Christian conservatives broke late in the race and helped determine the outcome in Iowa. While some of their leaders have expressed skepticism about the potential to unify behind one candidate in such a crowded race, there's an opening for that. More than three-quarters of Christian conservatives in the poll say they could be convinced to back someone other than their first or second choice, if they could be assured that another Christian conservative would win. At the moment, Carson is leading with voters in that bloc at 23 percent, followed by Trump at 16 percent and Cruz and Walker tied at third. If his competitors can successfully raise questions about Trump's credentials as a Christian conservative, they could potentially peel off some of the front-runner's support. One major unknown for the caucuses is the size of the electorate, which has been around 120,000 on the Republican side for the past two Iowa caucuses. One of Trump's campaign goals is to get thousands of new people to vote, a move that helped Barack Obama score an upset on the Democratic side in 2008. First-time caucus-goers are clearly an important part of Trump's Iowa base. Among those who say they'll be attending for the first time, Trump is ahead of Carson, 28 percent to 20 percent. For now, the poll suggests about a fifth of those attending the Feb. 1 precinct meetings will be doing so for the first time. That's comparable to four years ago, when 24 percent said that on the Republican side in an October 2011 Iowa Poll. Trump's supporters in Iowa a have a higher level of trust in their candidate than others in the field to make the right decisions, if he makes it to the White House. Among all Republicans likely to attend the caucuses, 41 percent want their candidate to be clear about the specific policies they would address if elected, while 57 percent trust their candidate to figure it out once elected. For Trump, nearly two-thirds of his supporters trust him to figure out the right decisions once in office. That's in keeping with a claim he made to reporters Aug. 15, shortly after landing by helicopter outside the Iowa State Fair, saying it's mostly the media that cares about policy papers and positions. Among most of the subgroups measured in the poll, Trump has the advantage, although Carson beats him or comes close with several. Carson has an 11-percentage-point advantage over Trump among seniors and 7-percentage-point-point edge among Christian conservatives. "I'm sick and tired of the political class," said Lisa Pilch, 54, a middle school physical education teacher leaning toward Carson who lives in Springville, Iowa. "I just like his tone and think he's someone who could pull us together, rather than the polarization we have right now. He has a lot of wisdom, even if he doesn't have political savviness." While Carson is doing slightly better than Trump among women, the billionaire has the advantage among men, 28 percent to 17 percent. "He's got a no-nonsense approach," said Patrick Messmore, 32, a construction equipment sales manager who lives near Grundy Center and plans to back Trump. "His history as a businessman is potentially a good change for our country, so that we don't just have another life-time politician taking over as president." In some ways, Messmore sees Trump as an antidote to Bush. "I'm not OK with another Bush presidency," he said. "We've had two of them now and I don't see that there will be enough of a different approach than his dad or brother had. It’s just not something I'm interested in." The poll shows Walker and Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, especially, aren't performing anywhere close to earlier expectations. Paul, who was backed by just 4 percent, was perceived a year ago to have an advantage in Iowa, given the third-place finish in the 2012 caucuses recorded by his father, former Representative Ron Paul of Texas. In October, his favorable rating outweighed his unfavorable by nearly 3-to-1. "Whatever advantage he had has eroded," Selzer said. "Now, more Iowa caucus-goers have negative than positive feelings about him." For Walker, who has been in a slump since his lackluster debate performance, the poll is certain to further reduce expectations around his performance in Iowa, which had grown to the point where anything short of a win would have been viewed as a loss. One upside for him in the poll: Besides Carson, he's the only candidate to exceed 70 percent in favorability. Iowa Republicans are showing little interest in re-runs. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who won the 2008 Iowa Republican caucuses, is at 4 percent. He's followed at 2 percent by candidates who are governors, Chris Christie of New Jersey, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and John Kasich of Ohio. Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, who narrowly beat eventual nominee Mitt Romney in the 2012 caucuses, is backed by just 1 percent, the same level of support recorded by former Texas Governor Rick Perry, who is also struggling in his second White House bid even amid heavy spending in Iowa on the part of a super political action committee backing him. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, former New York Governor George Pataki and former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore all recorded support of less than 1 percent. The survey, taken Aug. 23-26, included 400 likely Republican caucus participants. On the full sample, it has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Besides the nearly the nearly 40 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers who say Christian conservative is the best way to identify them, "business-oriented establishment Republicans" and Tea Party activists are roughly tied as the next largest groups, at 22 percent and 21 percent. Those who feel they are most closely aligned with the "liberty movement," a bloc associated with Paul, represent only about 8 percent. To offer another assessment of candidate strength -- something difficult to divine in such a crowded field -- Selzer created an index built on multiple measures in the poll. The index takes into account first and second choices, as well as a question that was asked on whether respondents could ever -- or would never -- support each candidate they didn’t name as their first or second pick. First choices were given double weight, while “ever support” was given a half weighting. Using that system, Carson is narrowly ahead of Trump, 75 to 73. Walker comes next at 55, followed by Cruz at 53 and Rubio at 50. The index and never/ever question also show some of the candidates could struggle to expand their support. Nearly half of likely Republican caucus participants, 48 percent, say they could never support Christie. For Paul, it's 43 percent and for Bush it's 39 percent.
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#1. To: TooConservative (#0)
Carson must have cut a deal with the GOP masters.
I doubt it. Carson is exactly the kind of soft-spoken sweet candidate that Iowa evangelicals love the crap out of. I've been expecting a Carson surge for this reason. To win Iowa, Trump will have to follow Obama's example and register tens of thousands of new Trump voters and get them to turn out for the caucus and all the county- and state-level delegate events. The Carson people are the kind who have dominated in Iowa for a long time and they're prepared to go the distance for Carson. As many as a third of Trump's supporters are people who have not been politically active. There are reasons for that. And reasons to doubt that Trump can turn them into reliable primary/general election voters. I think Carson is in the lead in Iowa. He has real voters with a track record backing him. Trump, far less so.
OK. So we've got soft-spoken and sweet. And black, neurosurgeon, non- politician. Did I miss anything? Because that's all I know about the guy. Even when I Google his position on the issues, it's nothing but watered down pablum that I can get from any other candidate. Plus, he'll get eaten alive by Congress. Some candidates put all their efforts and money into Iowa, then have nothing left for the other primary states. I think that's what's happening here.
Iowa and New Hampshire get their prominent early positions because they are the kind of states where a less-funded candidate might get some traction. Otherwise, candidates like Bush and Trump with big money and party elite backing would always win the nomination. So, in software terms, this is a feature of Iowa caucuses, not a bug. Carson seems to have the same coalition that supported Huckabee in his Iowa win in 2008. Which makes a lot of sense.
He might be a nice guy. I'll give him that. He is goofy though. He thinks the second amendment is only for rural areas not the city.
I tend to like Carson,but it is despite him being a fundie,rather than because he is a fundie. Despite popular belief amongst true believers,a fundie will never be elected president in this country. As far as that goes,no fundie is ever elected as a national leader in any country but the Vatican. The only fundies who are regional or national leaders anywhere are dictators who took over via violent religious revolutions that murdered the previous leaders in order to take over in the name of their "God". IMHO,if Carson weren't such a decidated fundie he would probably be the front runner. I say "probably" only because Bathhouse Barry has probably poisoned the well for black presidents for at least a generation. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
You have no right predicting anything. You're almost always wrong. You don't think Trump is really running. You don't think Trump filed his papers. You think Trump will drop out before the third debate. You don't even know the primaries are before the third debate. You think Trump is working for Hillary, execpt when you think he is woring for Bush. You're all over the map with your incoherent rambling like some crazy fool.
Pete you are one stupid person. The Vatican is opposed to the Bible. They aren't fundamentalists. They are perverters of the Bible. A fundamentalist is just someone who believes the Bible to be true. Like Reagan. You dumb ass.
You don't even know the primaries are before the third debate. I don't recall ever discussing the third debate at all. Otherwise, roar on.
Otherwise, roar on. You said Trump would drop out before the third debate.
They aren't fundie Catholics? Who knew? The Vatican is opposed to the Bible. HorseHillary! Are you really and truly so ignorant that you think the VERSION of the Bible that your cult follows is the only version of the Bible out there? A fundamentalist is just someone who believes the Bible to be true. No,a fundamentalist is anyone who blindly believes in anything without question. Sometimes the "thing" being discussed is the OT or NT versions of the Bible,sometimes it is the Koran,and sometimes it is "Who was the best James Bond?". A fundamentalist is just someone who believes the Bible to be true. Like Reagan. You dumb ass. Reagan wasn't a fundie. He just played one on teebee and in your mind. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
We've had one. One of those is enough.
I don't recall it and I don't recall ever saying anything about the third debate. However, I have said that if Trump runs third-party, he almost has to drop out before the first debate. And without filing as a candidate in the states that have sore loser laws (that do apply once you have registered as a GOP candidate with a state).
Yep. The collective national conscience has now been cleansed. And I think the overall reaction is, "It'll be a f**king cold day in Hell before I vote for another black as President".
I think he'd make a better Democrat candidate, frankly.
I believe that is very true. It is too bad, as I think Carson is a very good man, highly intelligent. Although I have to say I am unsure of his positions, and his stance on 2nd Amendment I believe he is off on. Si vis pacem, para bellum
Yeah, I'm not so sure which one Trump is working for either.
I agree. I also agree he is wrong on the 2nd. Like you I don't know enough about all his positions,but he does come across as sincere instead of as a poser telling people what he thinks they want to hear so he can get elected. I am positive he is someone I would enjoy being friends with,but I'd have to know more about his political positions before I could really get behind him as a presidential candidate. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
Neither. He is working for Trump. If it accidentally benefits Bush or Hillary,he will be happy to send them a bill. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
#2. To: BobCeleste (#1)
Carson must have cut a deal with the GOP masters.
#3. To: TooConservative (#2)
"Carson is exactly the kind of soft-spoken sweet candidate that Iowa evangelicals love the crap out of."
#4. To: misterwhite (#3)
(Edited)
Some candidates put all their efforts and money into Iowa, then have nothing left for the other primary states. I think that's what's happening here.
#5. To: misterwhite (#3)
Even when I Google his position on the issues,
#6. To: TooConservative (#0)
#7. To: TooConservative (#2)
To win Iowa, Trump will have to
#8. To: sneakypete (#6)
As far as that goes,no fundie is ever elected as a national leader in any country but the Vatican.
#9. To: A K A Stone (#7)
You think Trump will drop out before the third debate.
#10. To: TooConservative (#9)
I don't recall ever discussing the third debate at all.
#11. To: A K A Stone (#8)
The Vatican is opposed to the Bible. They aren't fundamentalists.
#12. To: TooConservative (#0)
Carson, who has a compelling life story and is seeking to become the nation's second black president
#13. To: A K A Stone (#10)
You said Trump would drop out before the third debate.
#14. To: rlk (#12)
"We've had one. One of those is enough."
#15. To: A K A Stone (#5)
"He might be a nice guy. I'll give him that."
#16. To: sneakypete (#6)
" Bathhouse Barry has probably poisoned the well for black presidents for at least a generation. "
#17. To: A K A Stone (#7)
You think Trump is working for Hillary, execpt[sic] when you think he is woring[sic] for Bush.
#18. To: Stoner (#16)
It is too bad, as I think Carson is a very good man, highly intelligent.
#19. To: Fred Mertz (#17)
Yeah, I'm not so sure which one Trump is working for either.
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