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Title: Yes, Trump Lost the Debate
Source: National Review
URL Source: http://www.nationalreview.com/corne ... 4/trump-lost-debate-rich-lowry
Published: Aug 12, 2015
Author: Rich Lowry
Post Date: 2015-08-12 09:37:23 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 13293
Comments: 132

Per this Suffolk University survey in Iowa that is not an online poll like many of the other post-debate surveys. Trump didn’​t suffer a catastrophe (he still leads in the state), but the debate hurt him:

The Suffolk survey has warning signs for Trump. By 2-1, 55%-23%, those surveyed say watching Trump in the debate made them feel less comfortable rather than more comfortable with him as a candidate for president. A 54% majority also reject Trump’s complaints that he was treated unfairly by the Fox News anchors who served as moderators; 41% agree with him.

And a third of Iowa Republicans say Trump – enmeshed in a post-debate contretemps over his comments about Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly – “doesn’t show appropriate respect for women.” A larger number, 46%, side with the real-estate mogul and reality-TV star, saying criticism of his comments about women “are just examples of political correctness.”

Then there’s this: Trump scores a big lead among those who didn’t watch the debate, at 21%, double the standing of retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who finishes second at 10%. But among those who watched the debate, Trump does less well, tied with Walker at 14%.

Trump is at 17 percent, Walker at 12 percent, Rubio at 10 percent, Carson at 9 percent, Ted Cruz at 7 percent, Fiorina at 7 percent, Bush at 5 percent, Kasich at 3 percent, Huckabee at 2 percent, Paul at 2 percent, and Christie at 2 percent.

Meanwhile, Trump still leads in New Hampshire, but is lower than he had been in prior surveys:

And Rasmussen has Trump losing altitude nationally:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds Trump with 17% support among Likely Republican Primary Voters, down from 26% in late July before the first GOP debate. Senator Marco Rubio and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush are in second place with 10% support each, in a near tie with Fiorina and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker who both earn nine percent (9%) of the likely primary vote.

Next with eight percent (8%) come retired neurologist Dr. Ben Carson and Senator Ted Cruz at seven percent (7%). (To see survey question wording, click here.)


Poster Comment:

Trump's highest Suffolk poll standing in IA is among people who didn't watch the debate. So Trump polls best among Iowa's Know-Nothings. He could have advocated full-blown Soviet communism and still been their pick.

You can't deny that NR is still a hotbed of Trump haters ("Witless Ape Rides Escalator") so take it all, like any these goofy August name-recognition polls, with a big grain of salt.

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 108.

#101. To: TooConservative (#0)

Yes, Trump Lost the Debate

Per this Suffolk University survey in Iowa that is not an online poll like many of the other post-debate surveys.

http://www.suffolk.edu/academics/10740.php

Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus
August 11, 2015

Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)

Press Release: Trump Leads Iowa GOP Field but Shows Less Strength among Debate Viewers

Statement of Methodology: This survey of 500 likely Iowa Republican Caucus voters was conducted between August 7 and August 10, 2015, and is based on a statewide random sample drawn from a list of registered Republican voters who indicated they were very or somewhat likely to vote in their local Republican Caucuses in six months. Each of Iowa's five areas and demographic information were determined from past contested Republican presidential caucuses including 2008 and 2012, using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely caucus voters. Iowa's 99 counties were grouped into five general regions. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document which follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Key Names/Issues: Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump, Scott Walker, FoxNews debate

http://www.suffolk.edu/news/60760.php#.VcvdlflVhBc

Press Release that accompanied actual Suffolk poll.

Poll: Trump Leads Iowa GOP Field but Shows Less Strength among Debate Viewers

August 11, 2015

With just six months until the Iowa caucuses, businessman Donald Trump (17 percent) leads the field of Republicans among likely GOP caucus voters, according to a poll from Suffolk University.

Meanwhile, a subset of voters who watched the Aug. 6 Republican debate said that Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Dr. Ben Carson were the most impressive candidates.

The Suffolk University Iowa poll showed Gov. Scott Walker of neighboring Wisconsin second at 12 percent; Rubio, 10 percent; retired neurosurgeon Carson, 9 percent; and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and businesswoman Carly Fiorina tied at 7 percent.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush polled at 5 percent, followed by Ohio Gov. John Kasich (3 percent), while former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie were tied at 2 percent. Six other candidates received 1 percent or less, while 20 percent of voters were undecided. “It appears that Donald Trump’s lead is strong so long as the number of active opponents remains above a dozen,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “If the Republican field were winnowed down to five or six candidates, Trump’s 17 percent probably wouldn’t be enough to win in Iowa, as polling indicates that his further growth has limitations. The long-shot candidates staying in the race help keep Trump on top—at least for now.”

Debate Impact

The race was closer among viewers of last Thursday’s debate: Trump and Walker were tied at 14 percent, with Rubio (11 percent), Carson and Fiorina (tied at 10 percent), and Cruz (9 percent) close behind. However, among likely caucus voters who skipped watching the FOX NEWS debate, Trump (21 percent) led Carson (10 percent) by a wider margin, with Rubio and Walker tied at 8 percent. “In the absence of a debate, Trump’s lead widens because he swallows up the political oxygen, but when that oxygen is spread out more evenly in a debate, it breathes life into the other candidates, and the race gets closer,” said Paleologos. When viewers were asked about Trump after seeing him debate, 55 percent said they were less comfortable with him as a candidate for president, and 23 percent said they were more comfortable. Forty-one percent said the debate moderators targeted Trump unfairly, while 54 percent disagreed.

Debate performance

Both Rubio and Carson benefited from strong debate performances and are within striking distance of the leaders. When debate viewers were asked which candidate was most impressive, Rubio led with 23 percent, followed by Carson with 22 percent. Carson and Rubio also topped the field at 12 percent each as viewers’ second choice—an indicator of future growth potential. When viewers shared in their own words which debate moment they remembered most, Carson dominated, with 25 percent mentioning his closing remarks, brain surgery comments, or providing other positive feedback.

Though she did not appear on the evening debate stage, Fiorina made her mark among afternoon debate viewers, 82 percent of whom said Fiorina was the most impressive of the seven candidates in the earlier debate. Among viewers of either debate, 93 percent said Fiorina should be invited to debate the top tier of Republican candidates in the future.

History of Suffolk Research in Iowa

In the most recent Iowa Republican primary for U.S. Senate, the April 2014 Suffolk University poll was the first to show then-State Sen. Joni Ernst overtaking front-runner Mark Jacobs. In May, Suffolk polled three bellwether counties—Black Hawk, Boone, and Washington—all of which indicated a landslide win for Ernst. She went on to defeat her four Republican opponents with a 38-point margin.

Methodology

The statewide survey of 500 likely Iowa presidential caucus voters was conducted Aug. 7-10, 2015, using live telephone interviews of Republican primary voter households where respondents indicated they were very or somewhat likely to attend their local caucuses for president in six months. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data are posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310, dpaleologos@suffolk.edu.

The marginals and tables provide greater details.

nolu chan  posted on  2015-08-12   20:11:29 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#103. To: nolu chan (#101)

Poll: Trump Leads Iowa GOP Field but Shows Less Strength among Debate Viewers

I focused on that earlier. If Trump won the debate, how did his support shrink among those who saw the debate and only remain steady with those who didn't see the debate. And that doesn't explain how much he got booed by the debate crowd after that first question. People blame Megyn Kelly for Trump's debate performance but Trump got booed steadily after that first question. Brett "Babyface" Baier was the one with the knife.

Tooconservative  posted on  2015-08-12   20:15:25 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#108. To: TooConservative (#103)

I focused on that earlier. If Trump won the debate, how did his support shrink among those who saw the debate and only remain steady with those who didn't see the debate. And that doesn't explain how much he got booed by the debate crowd after that first question. People blame Megyn Kelly for Trump's debate performance but Trump got booed steadily after that first question. Brett "Babyface" Baier was the one with the knife.

The entire Fox staff were carry water for the GOPe.

It has been your position, repeatedly, that polls do not matter. At least until one poll can be spun to Trump being the leader in all the polls, but not as significantly in the lead. Now, a poll of a few hundred people in Iowa, with Trump still in the lead means Trump lost the debate. That would be based on the opinion of a few hundred selected people in one state.

Just be happy that Trump appears to have a limited ceiling, limiting his ability to win a general election.

Here is Bret Baier, the baby-faced assassin.

BAIER: Gentlemen, we know how much you love hand-raising questions. So we promise, this is the only one tonight: the only one. Is there anyone on stage, and can I see hands, who is unwilling tonight to pledge your support to the eventual nominee of the Republican party and pledge to not run an independent campaign against that person.

Again, we’re looking for you to raise your hand now — raise your hand now if you won’t make that pledge tonight.

Mr. Trump.

(BOOING)

Mr. Trump to be clear, you’re standing on a Republican primary debate stage.

TRUMP: I fully understand.

BAIER: The place where the RNC will give the nominee the nod.

TRUMP: I fully understand.

BAIER: And that experts say an independent run would almost certainly hand the race over to Democrats and likely another Clinton.

You can’t say tonight that you can make that pledge?

TRUMP: I cannot say. I have to respect the person that, if it’s not me, the person that wins, if I do win, and I’m leading by quite a bit, that’s what I want to do. I can totally make that pledge. If I’m the nominee, I will pledge I will not run as an independent. But — and I am discussing it with everybody, but I’m, you know, talking about a lot of leverage. We want to win, and we will win. But I want to win as the Republican. I want to run as the Republican nominee.

BAIER: So tonight, you can’t say if another one of these…

PAUL: This is what’s wrong!

BAIER: OK.

PAUL: I mean, this is what’s wrong. He buys and sells politicians of all stripes, he’s already…

BAIER: Dr. Paul.

PAUL: Hey, look, look! He’s already hedging his bet on the Clintons, OK? So if he doesn’t run as a Republican, maybe he supports Clinton, or maybe he runs as an independent…

BAIER: OK.

PAUL: …but I’d say that he’s already hedging his bets because he’s used to buying politicians.

TRUMP: Well, I’ve given him plenty of money.

BAIER: Just to be clear, you can’t make a — we’re gonna — we’re going to move on.

You’re not gonna make the pledge tonight?

TRUMP: I will not make the pledge at this time.

BAIER: OK. Alright.

(LAUGHTER, BOOING)

= = = = = = = =

BAIER: Gentlemen, the next series of questions deals with ObamaCare and the role of the federal government.

Mr. Trump, ObamaCare is one of the things you call a disaster.

TRUMP: A complete disaster, yes.

BAIER: Saying it needs to be repealed and replaced.

TRUMP: Correct.

BAIER: Now, 15 years ago, uncalled yourself a liberal on health care. You were for a single-payer system, a Canadian-style system.

Why were you for that then and why aren’t you for it now? TRUMP: First of all, I’d like to just go back to one. In July of 2004, I came out strongly against the war with Iraq, because it was going to destabilize the Middle East. And I’m the only one on this stage that knew that and had the vision to say it. And that’s exactly what happened.

BAIER: But on ObamaCare…

TRUMP: And the Middle East became totally destabilized. So I just want to say.

As far as single payer, it works in Canada. It works incredibly well in Scotland. It could have worked in a different age, which is the age you’re talking about here.

What I’d like to see is a private system without the artificial lines around every state. I have a big company with thousands and thousands of employees. And if I’m negotiating in New York or in New Jersey or in California, I have like one bidder. Nobody can bid.

You know why?

Because the insurance companies are making a fortune because they have control of the politicians, of course, with the exception of the politicians on this stage.

But they have total control of the politicians. They’re making a fortune.

Get rid of the artificial lines and you will have…

(BUZZER NOISE)

TRUMP: — yourself great plans. And then we have to take care of the people that can’t take care of themselves. And I will do that through a different system.

(CROSSTALK)

BAIER: Mr. Trump, hold up one second.

PAUL: I’ve got a news flash…

BAIER: All right, now, hold on, Senator Paul…

PAUL: News flash, the Republican Party’s been fighting against a single-payer system…

BAIER: OK.

PAUL: — for a decade. So I think you’re on the wrong side of this if you’re still arguing for a single-payer system.

TRUMP: I’m not — I’m not are — I don’t think you heard me. You’re having a hard time tonight.

BAIER: All right, let me…

(APPLAUSE)

BAIER: Mr. Trump, it’s not just your past support for single- payer health care. You’ve also supported a host of other liberal policies. Use — you’ve also donated to several Democratic candidates, Hillary Clinton included, Nancy Pelosi.

You explained away those donations saying you did that to get business-related favors.

And you said recently, quote, “When you give, they do whatever the hell you want them to do.”

TRUMP: You’d better believe it.

BAIER: So what specifically did…

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That’s true.

BAIER: — they do? TRUMP: If I ask them, if I need them, you know, most of the people on this stage I’ve given to, just so you understand, a lot of money.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Not me.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Not me.

(LAUGHTER)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: But you’re welcome to give me (INAUDIBLE) Donald if you’d like.

TRUMP: Many of them.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Actually, to be clear…

(CROSSTALK)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: — he supported Charlie Crist.

TRUMP: Not much.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Hey, Charlie…

(CROSSTALK)

TRUMP: But I…

(CROSSTALK)

TRUMP: — Donald, if you…

(CROSSTALK) TRUMP: I have good…

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: — this campaign, I hope you will give to me.

TRUMP: Good.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: OK.

TRUMP: Sounds good. Sounds good to me, Governor.

I will tell you that our system is broken. I gave to many people, before this, before two months ago, I was a businessman. I give to everybody. When they call, I give.

And do you know what?

When I need something from them two years later, three years later, I call them, they are there for me.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: So what did you get?

TRUMP: And that’s a broken system.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What did you get from Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi?

TRUMP: Well, I’ll tell you what, with Hillary Clinton, I said be at my wedding and she came to my wedding.

You know why?

She didn’t have a choice because I gave. I gave to a foundation that, frankly, that foundation is supposed to do good. I didn’t know her money would be used on private jets going all over the world. It was.

But…

(BUZZER NOISE)

(CROSSTALK)

BAIER: Hold on.

We’re going to — we’re going to move on.

(CROSSTALK)

BAIER: We’ll come back to you, Governor Walker.

WALKER: Just one second on this, though.

We — we spent a lot of time talking about Hillary Clinton and —and pitting us back and forth.

Let’s be clear, we should be talking about Hillary Clinton on that last subject, because everywhere in the world that Hillary Clinton touched is more messed up today than before she and the president (INAUDIBLE).

BAIER: We have many questions to come.

WALKER: It’s true.

BAIER: Many questions to come.

(APPLAUSE)

nolu chan  posted on  2015-08-12   23:46:32 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


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