When Jeb Bush and Donald Trump share a debate stage next week, Bush needs to ignore the real estate mogul at all costs —and if that fails, laugh him off. That’s the advice given by more than half of the POLITICO Caucus, our weekly, bipartisan survey of the top activists, operatives and strategists in Iowa and New Hampshire.
“The old maxim applies: Never wrestle with a pig,” counseled a New Hampshire Republican. “You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it.”
At the first GOP primary debate, slated for Aug. 6 in Cleveland, Bush and eight other Republicans will share the stage with Trump, the bombastic businessman who is leading the Republican field in recent polls and dominating headlines. Trump has been critical of a host of other GOP candidates, but he is an especially sharp and persistent critic of Bush — even attacking Bush in his own announcement for president.
But insiders have a message for the former Florida governor: do not engage. Many Republicans expect Trump will zero in on Bush in the debate — and how Bush responds could go a long way toward shaping perceptions about his cool under fire. Bush has not tussled as frequently or as heatedly with Trump as other GOP candidates have, and several insiders advised that the longer the focus is on Trump’s battles with the others, the better it is for Bush to quietly consolidate support while others struggle to break through.
“With Trump being Trump he will be the news of the debate 24/7 and no one else will break through,” a New Hampshire Republican said. “This helps Bush by keeping anyone else down in the pack.”
“Donald Who? Allow others to seek media attention with attacks on Trump. Bush needs to be above the fray, because, frankly, he IS above the fray,” said a New Hampshire Democrat, who like all participants was granted anonymity in order to speak freely.
Most early-state Republicans expect Bush to emerge as the victor in the first GOP primary debate next week; he had the highest overall expectations for any one candidate competing in the nationally televised, prime-time event according to the survey. But they expect him to succeed by demonstrating seriousness and a command of the issues onstage — not by taking on Trump.
“Jeb Bush needs to introduce himself as a serious leader for serious times to a large and curious audience,” said an Iowa Republican. “I hope he stands next to Trump on stage. The comparison in knowledge, depth, and quality will be apparent in the first 15 minutes.”
“He should avoid a food fight and be an adult but not a push-over,” said a New Hampshire Republican.
That may be easier said than done, warned some Caucus participants.
“[He] needs to not get ruffled which will be hard to do because Trump doesn’t just throw punches, he throws grenades,” a New Hampshire Democrat said.
But the best way to handle Trump broadsides, advised several insiders, is to disarm him —and the audience —with humor.
“He needs to punch Donald Trump in the nose, but do it with a smile on his face,” an Iowa Democrat said. “He should be funny and confident, but do everything he can to poke holes in his gasbag facade.”
Several added that other presidential contenders, in particular Ronald Reagan, showed a talent for defusing tense debate situations with a lighter touch.
“They all need to remember that Reagan’s classic “there you go again” line [to Jimmy Carter] was delivered not with a snarl and a smirk but rather with a smile and a shrug,” a New Hampshire Republican said.
But if GOP insiders have the highest expectations for Bush, they also believe that, after Trump, he has the most to prove. And a third of Democratic insiders also say Bush has the most to prove, followed by Trump with 21 percent.
“Jeb Bush is still the perceived yet relatively untested front-runner,” said a New Hampshire Republican. “With everyone questioning his fire in the belly for the job, he needs a strong performance before another cycle of ‘can he go the distance’ stories kick in.”
“He is the true front-runner,” an Iowa Republican said. “A lot of folks will be looking at him to see if he can break away from the pack and be the leader of the party.”
Among both Iowa and New Hampshire Republicans, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker came in third on the list of candidates who have the most to prove at the first debate. Walker leads the polls in Iowa, but critics have questioned whether his grasp of policy is enough for the national stage.
“As the Iowa front-runner and legitimate first tier candidate, Scott Walker will get his first real turn on the big stage,” an Iowa Republican said. “To date, he’s turned in uneven performances on substance. His speeches are largely canned, memorized talking points. His shifting positions on issues create huge potential land mines with the base. Several candidates put Iowa in the must-win column, and for them, he’ll be a prime target.”
“Trump is probably gonna Trump, so nothing to prove there. Bush is probably experienced enough that he doesn’t really have that much to prove. I picked Walker because he’s considered a top tier candidate, and leader in Iowa, so he needs to prove he’s able to handle himself and the questions in on a national stage,” a nonpartisan Iowan said.
Twenty-one percent of Democrats said Walker has the most to prove, tied with Trump.
“Walker needs to prove he belongs,” a New Hampshire Democrat said.
