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Title: An amazing, though clearly little-known, scientific fact: We get more snow storms in warm years!
Source:
Climate Progress
URL Source: http://climateprogress.org/2010/12/ ... ogress/lCrX+(Climate+Progress)
Published: Dec 13, 2010
Author: Climate Progress
Post Date: 2010-12-13 16:30:02 by go65
Keywords: None
Views: 15936
Comments: 25
Scientists have been predicting for decades that increased greenhouse gas emissions would lead to an increase in many kinds of extreme weather events, especially more intense precipitation and more brutual heat waves. So it’s not a big shock that what is likely to be the hottest year on record has witnessed so many blow-out extreme weather events from Nashville to Moscow to Pakistan — see NASA’s Hansen: Would recent extreme “events have occurred if atmospheric carbon dioxide had remained at its pre-industrial level of 280 ppm?” The “appropriate answer” is “almost certainly not.” Indeed, “The first nine months of the year have seen the highest number of weather-related events since Munich Re started keeping records,” according to Dr. Peter Hoeppe, Head of the Geo Risks Research Department at Munich Re. He said “that a clear pattern of continuing global warming was contributing to the natural disasters.” Recently, some December precipitation records have been falling — in Seattle and Portland, Oregon. These weren’t the 1000-year extremes that I typically write about — or the statistical aggregation of U.S. record highs vs. record lows — but I merely point them out because the anti-science crowd, led by discredited former TV weatherman Anthony Watts, persists in shouting about precipitation primarily when it comes down in solid form, even when it isn’t record-breaking. Snowstorms are pretty much all the disinformers have left to shout about now, at least to those who don’t pay close attention to the science. Since we’re entering the snowy season and can expect a blizzard of disinformation in this area, I’m updating this post from February, “We get more snow storms in warm years!” Everybody talks about the weather, but few read the scientific literature about it. The anti-science crowd has been doing a killer job pushing the myth that the big recent snowstorms somehow undercut our understanding of human-caused global warming. But aside from the fact the precipitation isn’t temperature, it turns out that the “common wisdom” the disinformers are preying on — lots of snow means we must be in a cold season — isn’t even true. Let’s look at the results of an actual, detailed study of “the relationships of the storm frequencies to seasonal temperature and precipitation conditions” for the years “1901–2000 using data from 1222 stations across the United States.” The 2006 study, “Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Snowstorms in the Contiguous United States“ (Changnon, Changnon, and Karl [of National Climatic Data Center], 2006) found we are seeing more northern snow storms and that we get more snow storms in warmer years: The temporal distribution of snowstorms exhibited wide fluctuations during 1901–2000, with downward 100-yr trends in the lower Midwest, South, and West Coast. Upward trends occurred in the upper Midwest, East, and Northeast, and the national trend for 1901–2000 was upward, corresponding to trends in strong cyclonic activity….. Results for the November–December period showed that most of the United States had experienced 61%– 80% of the storms in warmer-than-normal years. Assessment of the January–February temperature conditions again showed that most of the United States had 71%–80% of their snowstorms in warmer-than-normal years. In the March–April season 61%–80% of all snowstorms in the central and southern United States had occurred in warmer-than-normal years…. Thus, these comparative results reveal that a future with wetter and warmer winters, which is one outcome expected (National Assessment Synthesis Team 2001), will bring more snowstorms than in 1901–2000. Agee (1991) found that long-term warming trends in the United States were associated with increasing cyclonic activity in North America, further indicating that a warmer future climate will generate more winter storms. This year, of course, is poised to be the hottest year on record, so big snowstorms wouldn’t be terribly surprising, at least for those who follow the scientific literature. The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) U.S. Climate Impacts Report from 2009 reviewed that literature and concluded: Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent. Large-scale storm systems are the dominant weather phenomenon during the cold season in the United States. Although the analysis of these storms is complicated by a relatively short length of most observational records and by the highly variable nature of strong storms, some clear patterns have emerged.112 [Kunkel et al., 2008] Storm tracks have shifted northward over the last 50 years as evidenced by a decrease in the frequency of storms in mid-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, while high-latitude activity has increased. There is also evidence of an increase in the intensity of storms in both the mid- and high-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, with greater confidence in the increases occurring in high latitudes.112 [Kunkel et al., 2008] The northward shift is projected to continue, and strong cold season storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent, with greater wind speeds and more extreme wave heights.68 [Gutowski et al, 2008] Snowstorms The northward shift in storm tracks is reflected in regional changes in the frequency of snowstorms. The South and lower Midwest saw reduced snowstorm frequency during the last century. In contrast, the Northeast and upper Midwest saw increases in snowstorms, although considerable decade-to-decade variations were present in all regions, influenced, for example, by the frequency of El Niño events.112 [Kunkel et al., 2008] There is also evidence of an increase in lake-effect snowfall along and near the southern and eastern shores of the Great Lakes since 1950.97 [Cook et al, 2008] Lake-effect snow is produced by the strong flow of cold air across large areas of relatively warmer ice-free water. As the climate has warmed, ice coverage on the Great Lakes has fallen. The maximum seasonal coverage of Great Lakes ice decreased at a rate of 8.4 percent per decade from 1973 through 2008, amounting to a roughly 30 percent decrease in ice coverage (see Midwest region). This has created conditions conducive to greater evaporation of moisture and thus heavier snowstorms. Among recent extreme lake-effect snow events was a February 2007 10-day storm total of over 10 feet of snow in western New York state. Climate models suggest that lake-effect snowfalls are likely to increase over the next few decades.130 [Burnett et al., 2003] In the longer term, lake-effect snows are likely to decrease as temperatures continue to rise, with the precipitation then falling as rain.129 [Kunkel et al, 2002]. Finally, the words of Dr. Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, in the NY Times this August bear repeating: “It’s not the right question to ask if this storm or that storm is due to global warming, or is it natural variability. Nowadays, there’s always an element of both.”
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#1. To: go65 (#0)
Even Algore doesn't believe this myth any longer. See his new home on the beach for evidence.
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
Right now, we've got about 3 inch of snow, it's still snowing, and the temps will get down to 6 above tonight, wind chill even colder. How are you doing there?
"I really wanna care. I wanna feel somethin'. Let me dig a little deeper:. No, My give-a-damn's busted"~ Jo Dee Messina
DUH! LOL! Maybe you folks who don't know winter are surprised by this OBVIOUS fact? What is snow? Snow is moisture, (water vapor), that freezes in midair and then falls out of the air. What then do you need for snow to happen? You need water vapor to be present in the air and then you need air temperatures below the freezing point of water vapor. What happens as the air gets colder? ALL of the moisture freezes out as temps drop. It's called "dew point", WARM air holds way more water vapor than cold air does. So IF you have a very cold winter, the air cannot possibly hold any moisture, so it cannot snow. That's why people who live in winter conditions understand that if it snows there has to be a HEAT WAVE. DUH!
Living in mouth breather's empty noggins 24/7/365 totally rent free!
Getting tired of the bozoed calcon following me around on the 'net, wanting to discuss "tossing salad." Sorry, you sick rump-ranger. NOT interested.
Hello MD, how is it up your way? This beautiful snowfall has put me in a Xmas mood....
"I really wanna care. I wanna feel somethin'. Let me dig a little deeper:. No, My give-a-damn's busted"~ Jo Dee Messina
Bout the same, give or take a quarter inch of snow. Went through a lot of wood the past 24 hours, picked up another cord Saturday morning, knowing what this week was going to be like temp wise. The only thing thats good about the Owe-bama 'economy' is wood has dropped from almost 200 per cord to 100.
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
See his new home on the beach for evidence. Al Gore's new home on the beach means he doesn't believe we get more snow in warmer weather? Uh, OK.
Hey RG what's up? Weird weather here, one day it snows like heck, next day it's -20F then it warms up to around 0F then it snows again and it repeats. Hell three weeks ago it RAINED for three days like we lived in Southeast, then this cycle started. It's hard on the dogs, hell it's hard on everyone. BUT, it sure IS beautiful. Oh well ... If it was easy even the mincing capons such as skidmark et. al. could do it. I hope that you and yours have a kick ass Xmas! Stay warm! (Hot milk and rum could help y'all with that btw. It's healthy, no sugar, well except for that in the rum and milk course.) LOL!
Living in mouth breather's empty noggins 24/7/365 totally rent free!
I've never actually bought firewood. I have always cut my own. I was going to ask you what you paid for a cord. Was that $100. price for seasoned, cut/split wood? What kind of wood? Here in Southcentral Alaska, seasoned, all birch, cut and split cords are running between $250. - $300. not including delivery. AND it's extra if you want it stacked. Hell, a cord of green birch in log length costs around $180. to $200., and an entire log truck of all birch is $1400. which works out to about $140./cord When are we in Alaska going to get the "good" part of the obammy "economy"? I am not alone here in considering coal as a more inexpensive alternative at about $140./ton, but you need a cast iron stove and grate system up front to use coal. Stay warm y'all! LOL!
Living in mouth breather's empty noggins 24/7/365 totally rent free!
Fact. “Virtually all of us are now convinced that global warming poses a clear and present danger to civilization” December 13, 2010 The government is not your friend. They are not here to protect you and yours. In fact, a quick look at the latest climate-change projections, along with the associated inaction, suggests the government is working pretty hard to kill us all.
You give the government too much credit. They may kill us all, but it's not because of any plan. Just plain old incompetence and corruption are enough.
"I've really enjoyed meeting this community. They are so full of joy," - Sarah Palin to the thousands of cholera victims in Haiti
“Virtually all of us are now convinced that global warming poses a clear and present danger to civilization” December 13, 2010 FACT Mctoejam is a kool-aide chugging libTURD FOOL. FACT If "his" masters told mctoejam that it is DARK at high noon mctoejam would gladly call everybody who dared to question his masters "deniers" and worse. FACT Climate CHANGE is natural and NORMAL on THIS earth. FACT Mctoejam is a simple libTURD FOOL/TOOL. FACT
Living in mouth breather's empty noggins 24/7/365 totally rent free!
Respectfully, ;}, I give the USEmpire Zero Credit. All used up. ;} And yes, the USEmpire will Not be able to operate a police State with Solar/Wind Farms. The 'Gov't Plan will be to maintain Status Quo. For the Top 50 000. That means that All Necessary Energy will be requisitioned for them. "Currently, there are no forms of renewable energy or technologies of energy efficiency in place which could realistically offset the terminal declines in net energy faced by global society. The time after which a wide-scale implementation of such energy infrastructure becomes impossible is approaching very soon, if it has not already passed. For this reason, it is highly unlikely that the release of financial disciplinary structures will lead to re-organization at a more centralized level of operation anytime soon. It is significantly more likely that developed societies will re-organize at much smaller scales of economic and political activity, in which states, cities and local communities become more important to the "individual" than regional blocs or even nations. People will be forced to rely on their immediate environments as a means of acquiring basic goods and services." http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/
Did I say THAT, Congressman Grayson? Nope. I just noted Algore doesn't believe his own stated position, that 'global warming' will cause a 22 foot increase sea levels. His new home would be flooded. Now, you can argue effectively that Algore did this because he's an idiot...lol
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
What kind of wood? Here in Southcentral Alaska, seasoned, all birch, cut and split cords are running between $250. - $300. not including delivery. AND it's extra if you want it stacked. Its down to about $100 for a cord, 50 - 55 for a rick. Its mixed bag as far as 'seasoning'. Its also mixed bag as far as type. I cut and split about four cords myself this year. Because we are really focused on keeping our energy bills as low as possible we are using a lot more firewood this season as opposed to previous years. I should have planned a bit better earlier this year in that regard to be honest. Anyway, I can't cut a cord of wood for that price myself, when you factor in the time required, the fuel used for the chainsaw and the splitter, then the fuel used by the ATV/trailer hauling it out of our woods.
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
The military is their last line. With BigOil. You think both of the above are incompetent? ;} "In U.S., heat records far exceed cold for 10th consecutive month by Joseph Romm, Climate Progress, December 10, 2010 NASA released its monthly global temperature data, revealing November was easily the hottest in the temperature record. The “meteorological year” — December to November — was also the hottest on record. Calendar year 2010 appears poised to be the hottest on record. These records are especially impressive because we’re in the middle of a strong La Niña, which would normally cool off temperatures for a few months (relatively speaking), and we’ve been in “the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century.” It’s just hard to stop the march of manmade global warming, other than by sharply reducing greenhouse gas emissions, that is."
I'm not sure what you said there badeye, but I do know that you said the tax deal wouldn't pass and that the GOP would win 70+ seats in the house and control of the Senate.
and that has what to do with warmer temperatures causing more snow?
Did I say THAT, Congressman Grayson? I'm not sure what you said there badeye Then ask rather that guess...
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
I just noted Algore doesn't believe his own stated position, that 'global warming' will cause a 22 foot increase sea levels. and that has what to do with warmer temperatures causing more snow? Nothing. It has all to do with my first comment, which you tried to dispute.
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
your first comment was "Even Algore doesn't believe this myth any longer." the topic of this article is that warmer temperatures can lead to more snow. Maybe if you could actually write a complete sentence you might convey your thoughts a little better.
Nothing. It has all to do with my first comment, which you tried to dispute. your first comment was "Even Algore doesn't believe this myth any longer." Yes, and his own actions, comments and purchases demonstrate this is true. NOt my problem your global hoax guru betrayed you.
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
So warming temperatures are evidence of this "hoax" how?
LMFAO The Bab;s Astrodome statement redux.
#2. To: Badeye (#1)
#3. To: go65, ALL (#0)
An amazing, though clearly little-known, scientific fact: We get more snow storms in warm years!
#4. To: go65 (#0)
An amazing, though clearly little-known, scientific fact: We get more snow storms in warm years!
#5. To: Mad Dog (#3)
#6. To: Murron (#2)
Right now, we've got about 3 inch of snow, it's still snowing, and the temps will get down to 6 above tonight, wind chill even colder. How are you doing there?
#7. To: Badeye (#1)
Even Algore doesn't believe this myth any longer.
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#8. To: Murron, skidmark, ALL (#5)
#9. To: Badeye, murron (#6)
#10. To: go65 (#0)
(Edited)
#11. To: mcgowanjm (#10)
n fact, a quick look at the latest climate-change projections, along with the associated inaction, suggests the government is working pretty hard to kill us all.
#12. To: mctoejam aka mcgowanjm (#10)
Fact.
#13. To: Skip Intro (#11)
You give the government too much credit.
#14. To: go65 (#7)
Al Gore's new home on the beach means he doesn't believe we get more snow in warmer weather?
#15. To: Mad Dog (#9)
I was going to ask you what you paid for a cord. Was that $100. price for seasoned, cut/split wood?
#16. To: Skip Intro (#11)
Just plain old incompetence and corruption are enough.
#17. To: Badeye (#14)
Did I say THAT, Congressman Grayson?
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#18. To: Badeye (#14)
I just noted Algore doesn't believe his own stated position, that 'global warming' will cause a 22 foot increase sea levels.
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#19. To: go65 (#17)
#20. To: go65 (#18)
#21. To: Badeye (#20)
Nothing. It has all to do with my first comment, which you tried to dispute.
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#22. To: go65 (#21)
#23. To: Badeye (#22)
the topic of this article is that warmer temperatures can lead to more snow.
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#24. To: Badeye (#22)
NOt my problem your global hoax guru betrayed you.
On January 3, 2011 the GOP assumes responsibility for deficit spending.
#25. To: Skip Intro (#11)
I've really enjoyed meeting this community. They are so full of joy," - Sarah Palin to the thousands of cholera victims in Haiti
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