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Title: New Home Sales: Worst June on Record (+24% from a small number War)
Source:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
URL Source: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
Published: Jul 26, 2010
Author: NA
Post Date: 2010-07-26 10:51:38 by Nebuchadnezzar
Keywords: None
Views: 4875
Comments: 9
New Home Sales: Worst June on Record by CalculatedRisk on 7/26/2010 10:00:00 AM Ignore all the month to previous month comparisons. May was revised down sharply and that makes the increase look significant. Here is the bottom line: this was the worst June for new home sales on record. The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 330 thousand. This is an increase from the record low of 267 thousand in May (revised from 300 thousand). New Home Sales Monthly Not Seasonally Adjusted Click on graph for larger image in new window. The first graph shows monthly new home sales (NSA - Not Seasonally Adjusted). Note the Red columns for 2010. In June 2010, 30 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). This is a new record low for June. The previous record low for the month of June was 34 thousand in 1982; the record high was 115 thousand in June 2005. New Home Sales and Recessions The second graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions for the last 47 years. Sales of new single-family houses in June 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 330,000 ... This is 23.6 percent (±15.3%) above the revised May rate of 267,000, but is 16.7 percent (±10.9%) below the June 2009 estimate of 396,000. And another long term graph - this one for New Home Months of Supply. New Home Months of Supply and RecessionsMonths of supply decreased to 7.6 in June from a revised 9.6 in May (revised from 8.5). The all time record was 12.4 months of supply in January 2009. This is still very high (less than 6 months supply is normal). The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 210,000. This represents a supply of 7.6 months at the current sales rate. New Home Sales Inventory The final graph shows new home inventory. The 267 thousand annual sales rate for May is the all time record. This is a very sharp downward revision. The 330 thousand in June is the worst June on record. With all the gyrations, it is difficult to see what is happening month to month, but overall this was a very weak report.
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#1. To: All (#0)
(Edited)
Btw, May, a horrible month, was revised DOWN. I suspect we'll see a revision down on June's sales numbers also.
If you voted for Obama in 2008, you're too blame for this rotten mess we're now in. You broke it, you own it.
TROFLMAO...what a patriot you are cheering for BAD news out of GOOD...
This is 16% DOWN from June of 2009. But notice how people like War spin this. They look at, and only look at, Month to Month. May was the worst since 196X. So obviously a small uptick in June, even though it is the worst for June in the history of the calculations, will appear to be large. But, the reality is that June of 2009 was a horrible year, and this year is even worse than that! Conclusion: War spins and shills for Obama even though he knows there is no good news here in the macro scheme of things!
If you voted for Obama in 2008, you're too blame for this rotten mess we're now in. You broke it, you own it.
So is it bad news or good news?
If you voted for Obama in 2008, you're too blame for this rotten mess we're now in. You broke it, you own it.
Not sure at this point...some forward indicators on housing are looking good. Aps of first time buyers are staying steady. Had a good drop in supply. BUildiong permits wers strong. When you filter out the multi-dwelling noise from "starts" single family are okay.
Dude, are you high? This is the worst June in recorded history. Even worse than June of 2009, a horrible month. Why do you insist on MtM instead of YtY is laughable. The extent and depths you'll go to to help Democrats in November is breathtaking in the extreme. It's call "Credibility", some have it, and you don't.
If you voted for Obama in 2008, you're too blame for this rotten mess we're now in. You broke it, you own it.
ROFLMAO... Oh...so it's only sales in June that determine how the economy is doing. Sorry...was unaware of that...
Oh...so it's only sales in June that determine how the economy is doing. Sorry...was unaware of that... No moron, but May AND June are excellent indicators of the FAILURE of Obama and his friends on Liberty's flame.
If you voted for Obama in 2008, you're too blame for this rotten mess we're now in. You broke it, you own it.
....okay...so it's TWO months... Thanks... [snicker]
#2. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#1)
#3. To: All (#0)
#4. To: war (#2)
TROFLMAO...what a patriot you are cheering for BAD news out of GOOD...
#5. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#4)
#6. To: war (#5)
Not sure at this point...some forward indicators on housing are looking good. Aps of first time buyers are staying steady. Had a good drop in supply. BUildiong permits wers strong. When you filter out the multi-dwelling noise from "starts" single family are okay.
#7. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#6)
(Edited)
This is the worst June in recorded history.
#8. To: war (#7)
ROFLMAO...
#9. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#8)
,,, but May AND June are excellent indicators...
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